January Banter 2025

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh yeah no disagreement that he has wayyy underperformed against teams that they want to be seen as peers of

This goes far beyond just Franklin on game day. He’s compared to schools like OSU, Bama, Mich, etc that up until recently, had far greater commitment to winning regardless of expense and had resources at their disposal that Franklin couldn’t even touch. The inner dynamics at PSU have been a mess since the scandal. Slowly but surely Franklin and his camp have been able to turn the tide and gain more support for improving things like recruiting budget, NIL budget, facilities renovations, etc. I can write with 1000% confidence based on very reliable info that the dude has put everything into fighting for more with pushback from the old guard admin and old guard boosters that are still bitter about things that went down up there more than a decade ago. 
 

Now, Franklin is far from perfect and does deserve blame for some of the more high profile loses they’ve taken in recent years, but someone (not you) to say the guy is a loser is absurd. PSU is top 10 in both wins and winning percentage amongst P4 schools in the last decade. And he’s now taken them to 2 rose bowls, 2 fiesta bowls, a cotton bowl, peach bowl and made it to the CFP semifinal all in the last 9 seasons. Is he Nick Saban or Kirby Smart? F no. But Bama and Georgia also throw everything they have into winning. PSU has not until very recently. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

This goes far beyond just Franklin on game day. He’s compared to schools like OSU, Bama, Mich, etc that up until recently, had far greater commitment to winning regardless of expense and had resources at their disposal that Franklin couldn’t even touch. The inner dynamics at PSU have been a mess since the scandal. Slowly but surely Franklin and his camp have been able to turn the tide and gain more support for improving things like recruiting budget, NIL budget, facilities renovations, etc. I can write with 1000% confidence based on very reliable info that the dude has put everything into fighting for more with pushback from the old guard admin and old guard boosters that are still bitter about things that went down up there more than a decade ago. 
 

Now, Franklin is far from perfect and does deserve blame for some of the more high profile loses they’ve taken in recent years, but someone (not you) to say the guy is a loser is absurd. PSU is top 10 in both wins and winning percentage amongst P4 schools in the last decade. And he’s now taken them to 2 rose bowls, 2 fiesta bowls, a cotton bowl, peach bowl and made it to the CFP semifinal all in the last 9 seasons. Is he Nick Saban or Kirby Smart? F no. But Bama and Georgia also throw everything they have into winning. PSU has not until very recently. 

What's his best win in the last 5 years?  Sorry I don't make excuses, I expect results.  I acknowledged in a recent post their recruitment has only recently recovered and improved.  But that is all the more reason it's time to move on to a coach that can get more out of their now higher level of talent.  Franklin does not coach the way the modern college game demands.  The only way his style would work is if they had the talent level of Ohio State or Alabama and could just maul people at the line no matter how good they are.  PSU is unlikely to ever get to THAT extreme A+ level, even in their hayday they were a A- level just below the top 5 schools in recruitment.  To win a title with that level of talent you need a system that maximizes and gets more than the sum of your parts our of the talent.  Franklin does not.  

It's not personal, I am not calling him a loser as a human being, but he is a loser in terms of his ability to get more out of his talent as a football coach.  They will continue to be what they have been if they keep him, they will win all their games v lesser talent and go 10-2 and lose to Ohio St and Michigan and then when they run into a good team in the playoffs every year.

Some are totally happy with that.  I am not.  I would rather they have a few years they are out of the top 20 but one year a decade they are a legit title contender than that.  

[snowfan]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What's his best win in the last 5 years?  Sorry I don't make excuses, I expect results.  I acknowledged in a recent post their recruitment has only recently recovered and improved.  But that is all the more reason it's time to move on to a coach that can get more out of their now higher level of talent.  Franklin does not coach the way the modern college game demands.  The only way his style would work is if they had the talent level of Ohio State or Alabama and could just maul people at the line no matter how good they are.  PSU is unlikely to ever get to THAT extreme A+ level, even in their hayday they were a A- level just below the top 5 schools in recruitment.  To win a title with that level of talent you need a system that maximizes and gets more than the sum of your parts our of the talent.  Franklin does not.  

It's not personal, I am not calling him a loser as a human being, but he is a loser in terms of his ability to get more out of his talent as a football coach.  They will continue to be what they have been if they keep him, they will win all their games v lesser talent and go 10-2 and lose to Ohio St and Michigan and then when they run into a good team in the playoffs every year.

Some are totally happy with that.  I am not.  I would rather they have a few years they are out of the top 20 but one year a decade they are a legit title contender than that.  

So they will lose to the teams that out resource PSU and because of that, Franklin is a loser. You need to sit this one out. You love to argue and debate with everyone on this board and you lack self awareness to step aside when you are wrong. Please just let this one go. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

So they will lose to the teams that out resource PSU and because of that, Franklin is a loser. You need to sit this one out. You love to argue and debate with everyone on this board and you lack self awareness to step aside when you are wrong. Please just let this one go. 

I would prefer a coach with a style that has more variance.  I will acknowledge a more aggressive coach with a more gutsy style will also lose more sometimes.  They will have seasons that blows up and costs them a few games and they finish 8-5 and out of it totally.  But there will be years it pays off and they upset a better team and maybe win it all.  I prefer that.  This is not a right or wrong thing its a preference.  I have mine.  You can have yours.  

They lost to a team with less talent last night.  Notre Dame has a slightly lower recruiting rating the last 4 years than PSU!  That part of your argument is invalid.  They don't just lose to teams better than them, they also lose to teams on their same level.  But more importantly, they lose EVERYTIME they play someone with more talent.  They NEVER pull the upset.  Football is a game of high variance.   You should be able to win 1 of 3 chances v a slightly more talented team.  But not the way Franklin coaches.  He is very conservative.  The way he coaches actually decreases variance, which is good if you are the more talented team and is why he never loses to Indiana or Purdue or any of the other lower level schools they play.  But is also why they will never beat Ohio State.  

 

[snowfan]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would prefer a coach with a style that has more variance.  I will acknowledge a more aggressive coach with a more gutsy style will also lose more sometimes.  They will have seasons that blows up and costs them a few games and they finish 8-5 and out of it totally.  But there will be years it pays off and they upset a better team and maybe win it all.  I prefer that.  This is not a right or wrong thing its a preference.  I have mine.  You can have yours.  

They lost to a team with less talent last night.  Notre Dame has a slightly lower recruiting rating the last 4 years than PSU!  That part of your argument is invalid.  They don't just lose to teams better than them, they also lose to teams on their same level.  But more importantly, they lose EVERYTIME they play someone with more talent.  They NEVER pull the upset.  Football is a game of high variance.   You should be able to win 1 of 3 chances v a slightly more talented team.  But not the way Franklin coaches.  He is very conservative.  The way he coaches actually decreases variance, which is good if you are the more talented team and is why he never loses to Indiana or Purdue or any of the other lower level schools they play.  But is also why they will never beat Ohio State.  

 

Imagine writing that the coach is conservative when the game was lost on a play where the QB was being aggressive and pushing the ball downfield and threw back over the middle of the field late in the 4th qtr with less than a minute left in the game resulting in a killer INT. Dude…please stop. You’re way out of your element here. Go lecture someone else. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Imagine writing that the coach is conservative when the game was lost on a play where the QB was being aggressive and pushing the ball downfield and threw back over the middle of the field late in the 4th qtr with less than a minute left in the game resulting in a killer INT. Dude…please stop. You’re way out of your element here. Go lecture someone else. 

First of all you're drilling down to a single play to make a point on a narrative I developed over years of examples.

 

Throwing the ball there is not that agressive.  I am totally sure the play call was not for Allar to freeze up for 3 seconds and then throw across his body as he is being hit across the field.  I am sure he would have preferred he make that first read, which was much more safe, or throw it away.  That was a brain fart on Allar.  But Franklin put him in that spot when he punted on 4th and 2.  That handed the game script to Notre Dame.  Yea if they go and dont get it they lose, but its on their terms.  Or you give them the ball at the 30 there and make a stop and get the ball back with more time and not deep in your own end.  I would prefer a more aggressive coach that pushes the envelope and takes risks and plays the game on HIS terms!  That is my preference.  And I admit that will blow up and lose you games sometimes. 

My father has this argument with me all the time.  He thinks the Eagles coach is sometimes way too aggressive, which is funny because sometimes I think he isn't even aggressive enough and want him to be 100% balls to the walls Detroit style!  Go go go, take every chance and let the chips fall.  Take the game and if you lose lose because you screwed up not because you let the other team hang around and beat you.  If I lose I want it to be on my terms.  Dont let the other team have any control over the game script.  That's how you upset better teams and make a run.  And yes it will cause loses, I am willing to accept that, for the times it brings upset wins! 

[Harv_poor]

CBS Sportsline had a non-positive article about Franking this morning. One key point was the drop in recruiting since 2022.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/whats-next-for-penn-state-after-orange-bowl-loss-it-starts-with-james-franklin-whos-1-18-vs-top-5-teams/

[Lowershoresadness]

had no idea there were 122 NWS offices. Cool to see where each office area is.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

had no idea there were 122 NWS offices. Cool to see where each office area is.

I'm pretty familiar with LWX, CTP,PHI, ALY, BTV, GYX, BOU, RIW, SLC and ABQ, rarely read anything from the others.  

[cbmclean]

@psuhoffman

We never did get a trip report.  How was the snow/temps in BC?

[nj2va]

Texas looks like they’re getting blown out tonight so far. 

[diatae]

10" or more snowpack on the ground in the plains. Time to flip through the Guerney's seed catalog for some indoor starts.

[LordBaltimore]

As a long term (~30 year out) project I've been thinking how feasible it would be to create a microclimate somewhere in the WV highlands that maximizes yearly snowcover. Imagine buying a couple acre property on a 3000+ft hilltop, then digging out a 30ish ft deep artificial cold sink large enough for a cabin and a modest yard. The pit and surrounding wind breaks would have to be designed in such a way as to minimize turbulent mixing. That would then take care of advective warming, and snowmaking throughout the year would reflect away any insolation. Not sure how to deal with downward long wave yet though. Ultimate goal would be maintaining pack into late june

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

As a long term (~30 year out) project I've been thinking how feasible it would be to create a microclimate somewhere in the WV highlands that maximizes yearly snowcover. Imagine buying a couple acre property on a 3000+ft hilltop, then digging out a 30ish ft deep artificial cold sink large enough for a cabin and a modest yard. The pit and surrounding wind breaks would have to be designed in such a way as to minimize turbulent mixing. That would then take care of advective warming, and snowmaking throughout the year would reflect away any insolation. Not sure how to deal with downward long wave yet though. Ultimate goal would be maintaining pack into late june

I like your thinking lol.

[WxWatcher007]

I’m ashamed. 

The retired Reaper and Lord High Executioner  got too comfortable. Got too caring in watching people get snow. Got too open to allowing winter to restart my cold, dead, heart. 

I had hope, and it killed me (again).

May the darkness be eternal during this Godforsaken season.

[Steve25]

I've seen a few people saying the potential pattern around the 20th and beyond reminds them of 2013/2014. Can someone remind me of the storms we got during that time? I know there weren't any huge storms, but the winter overall was well above average. Was it a bunch of like 4-8 inch events? 

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I've seen a few people saying the potential pattern around the 20th and beyond reminds them of 2013/2014. Can someone remind me of the storms we got during that time? I know there weren't any huge storms, but the winter overall was well above average. Was it a bunch of like 4-8 inch events? 

Here's my accumulation obs starting in late Jan, which is the analog to this upcoming pattern.  I did also have 6" in December and a 6" early January storm.

 January 21, 2014: 8.3"

   January 28-29, 2014: 0.7"

   February 9, 2014: 0.8"

   February 12-13, 2014: 18"

   February 18, 2014: 1.2"

   February 25, 2014: 1.0"

   February 26, 2014: 1.0"

   March 3, 2014: 4.5"

   March 16-17, 2014: 9.4"

   March 25, 2014: 3.2"

   March 30, 2014: 0.3"

   April 15, 2014: 0.1"

 

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Here's my accumulation obs starting in late Jan, which is the analog to this upcoming pattern.  I did also have 6" in December and a 6" early January storm.

 January 21, 2014: 8.3"

   January 28-29, 2014: 0.7"

   February 9, 2014: 0.8"

   February 12-13, 2014: 18"

   February 18, 2014: 1.2"

   February 25, 2014: 1.0"

   February 26, 2014: 1.0"

   March 3, 2014: 4.5"

   March 16-17, 2014: 9.4"

   March 25, 2014: 3.2"

   March 30, 2014: 0.3"

   April 15, 2014: 0.1"

 

Without the December and early January snows, I  don't see how this year can compare to 13/14 unless we get crazy February and March snows.

[GramaxRefugee]

Apparently some Northern Virginians have moved to east TX...(the notice is from the Independent School District. Commentary from my daughter)

Comical that they had to turn off comments, presumably from smart-ass students. The adjoining District closed.

[87storms]

Anyone here going to the AMS conference?  My company is one of the sponsors and will be having a booth there (we'll be rotating who's covering the booth vs attending presentations).  I'm tagging along as an analyst/hobbyist.  If you're interested in meeting up or visiting our booth, lmk (you can shoot me a message).

[CAPE]

The Steelers are coming into this game on a 4 game skid. They have nothing going for them. Even their defense has been soft. Ravens simply cannot give them hope by sputtering, turning the ball over, or shooting themselves on the foot with dumb penalties. Start fast. Put the pedal to the metal from the get go and never let up.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Steelers are coming into this game on a 4 game skid. They have nothing going for them. Even their defense has been soft. Ravens simply cannot give them hope by sputtering, turning the ball over, or shooting themselves on the foot with dumb penalties. Start fast. Put the pedal to the metal from the get go and never let up.

There is no reason to lose this game--none! I'm more afraid of us than the Steelers. But I'd like to believe we're putting it all together at the right time and will be on our A-Game from this point forward!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

There is no reason to lose this game--none! I'm more afraid of us than the Steelers. But I'd like to believe we're putting it all together at the right time and will be on our A-Game from this point forward!

Agree completely.

[CAPE]

Ravens need to at least get to the AFC Championship game and play well. Not even saying SB or bust! The championship game will be on the road and if they play well and lose a close one, I will be ok with it. Anything short of that, Harbaugh needs to go.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, CAPE said:

Ravens need to at least get to the AFC Championship game and play well. Not even saying SB or bust! The championship game will be on the road and if they play well and lose a close one, I will be ok with it. Anything short of that, Harbaugh needs to go.

First time we actually agree about Harbaugh (must be vibes from the great start to the winter or something, lol).

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

First time we actually agree about Harbaugh (must be vibes from the great start to the winter or something, lol).

Well yeah. I have wanted him gone multiple times in recent seasons lol.

[Prestige Worldwide]

I’d love a Ravens/Eagles Super Bowl.  That would be epic and certainly would be accompanied by a region-wide HECS on Super Bowl Sunday.  Talk about great times 

[WxUSAF]

This first game is absolute trash

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This first game is absolute trash

Goodness gracious...toe ball, lol

[CAPE]

Houston woke up. Some nice play by Stroud, which has been rare lately.