January Banter 2025

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll give the storm another “reminder” as I fly through in a few minutes. 
 

Whichever camp is going to cave (or more likely a compromise) it has to happen soon because the differences that lead to the south v north results occur in only about 24 hours and the rest is just the dominoes falling after that. 

Wait a minute so you were actually where the storm was in the video last night?? (Out in the Midwest?) Somehow I totally missed that part but it now it makes sense, hahaha

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I’ll keep this in banter because I know it’s the NAM at 48 hours away, but… it still has me a little scared because 1) what it shows is usually how SoMD fails, and 2) some of our most spectacular busts (like Boxing Day) had the NAM lead the way.

[stormtracker]

We're surprisingly well behaved in the storm mode thread.   What's going on with yall?

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’ll keep this in banter because I know it’s the NAM at 48 hours away, but… it still has me a little scared because 1) what it shows is usually how SoMD fails, and 2) some of our most spectacular busts (like Boxing Day) had the NAM lead the way.

Different sub forum, but in January 2017 Eastern NC was forecasted to get a significant snowfall for us: 6"+ with some potential 9" lolys.  Very shortly before gametime the NAM took a dump in the punchbowl with a massive warm nose.  Everybody discounted it because the globals were still bullish.  "It's the NAM" we said, "when is it ever right"?  Guess what happened...  

[wawarriors4]

Wow, what a hole! Around Fredericksburg, this is my favorite map ever……

[nj2va]

Just now, wawarriors4 said:

Wow, what a hole! Around Fredericksburg, this is my favorite map ever……

30 or so hours from onset and EZF gets anywhere from a dusting to over a foot of snow.  Wild.

[wawarriors4]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

30 or so hours from onset and EZF gets anywhere from a dusting to over a foot of snow.  Wild.

It’s just so comical……

[clskinsfan]

I gotta stop day drinking. These models are making me lose my shit.

[arlwx12]

I have two weather radios, and even though one of them was switched off they wailed together when the WSW for DC came through.

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I gotta stop day drinking. These models are making me lose my shit.

try some weed

[CAPE]

Ok Ravens, take care of business. No injuries. Get a lead and rest some players.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

try some weed

thats for later. A couple hours before bed.

[deer]

  

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow evening, attention turns to a system approaching from the west. A closed upper low and associated surface low will track eastward from the Central Plains toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley during the day tomorrow, through the Ohio Valley tomorrow night into Monday, and then overhead Monday night. Warm advection aloft well in advance of the low will start to overrun very cold air in place at low-levels tomorrow evening. Precipitation will break out in association with that warm advection driven ascent, and then gradually spread northeastward over the course of the night. Onset times of precipitation are expected to be around 6-9 PM in the Alleghenies, central Shenandoah Valley, and central Virginia, 9PM-midnight in the northern Shenandoah Valley, DC/Baltimore Metros, and southern Maryland, and after midnight in far northeast Maryland. Precipitation will be all snow at onset, and should pick up in intensity fairly quickly. The strongest push of warm advection/frontogenetic forcing is expected to move through during the second half of the night, leading to the heaviest precipitation rates. Snowfall rates may reach 1-2 inches per hour for a time late Sunday night where the heaviest bands set up. This time period with heavier precipitation rates will linger a bit into Monday morning, with precipitation becoming lighter late Monday morning through Monday afternoon as the strength of the low-level warm advection weakens a bit. The system`s upper level low will move overhead Monday night, potentially leading to a secondary burst of briefly moderate to locally heavy snow. Precipitation will than wind down during the late evening/overnight hours. At this juncture, there is a bimodal distribution in model guidance with respect to the track of the system and resultant precipitation amounts/types. The GFS/NAM, and the CAMs that are driven by GFS/NAM lateral boundary conditions (HRRR/FV3/3km NAM/WRF-ARW/WRF-NSSL) are further north with QPF axis, and would bring significant, warning level amounts of precipitation to the entire forecast area. Individual members within that camp differ with respect to how far north a warm nose aloft would make it. The HRRR and NAM-Nest illustrate that spread with respect to the handling of the warm nose. The 12 and 18z HRRR keep nearly all of the CWA snow for the entire event, while the NAM-Nest works the warm nose northward to roughly I-66/US-50. In the example of the NAM-Nest, locations north of I-66/US-50 would get warning level snowfall (likely in excess of 6 inches), while locations further south would get a few inches of snow, and then sleet and freezing rain on top of that (resulting in warning level impacts). In the HRRR scenario, the entirety of the forecast area would receive warning level snow, with some locations even closing in on a foot of snow. The other half of the bimodal distribution is global models from international modeling suites (the Euro, Canadian, UKMET, and ICON). These models have the QPF max suppressed further to the south, placing it across central Virginia to southern Maryland. In this scenario, locations north of I-66/US-50, and especially north of I- 70 would receive reduced amounts of precipitation, resulting in advisory level snowfall, while locations further south across central VA to southern Maryland would receive warning level snowfall (potentially even closing in on a foot of snow), along with some minimal mixing with sleet or freezing rain. Since all of the above scenarios provide warning level impacts (whether it be from all snow or a mix of snow and sleet/freezing rain) from the I-66/US-50 corridor southward, confidence was high enough to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. Further north (across northern Maryland and portions of the WV Panhandle), the Winter Storm Watch was left in place to account for uncertainty in QPF amounts, since snow in those locations could be either advisory level (2-5"), or warning level (5+") depending on which solution verifies. This area will continue to evaluated, with decisions on advisory versus warning likely being made overnight after 00z guidance is available.

chatGPT summary:
 

Short Term Weather Forecast (Sunday Evening through Monday Night)

Overview:
A weather system is approaching from the west, consisting of a closed upper low and a surface low that will move eastward from the Central Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, then through the Ohio Valley, and overhead by Monday night.

Precipitation Timeline:
- Sunday Evening (6-9 PM): Precipitation will begin in the Alleghenies, central Shenandoah Valley, and central Virginia.
- Late Evening (9 PM - Midnight): Northern Shenandoah Valley, DC/Baltimore Metros, and southern Maryland will see precipitation start.
- After Midnight: Far northeast Maryland will begin to experience precipitation.

Precipitation Type:
- Initially, all precipitation will be snow, with intensity increasing quickly.
- Expect snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour during the heaviest bands late Sunday night.

Monday Morning:
- Heavier precipitation will continue into Monday morning, tapering off late morning through afternoon as warm advection weakens.

Monday Night:
- The upper-level low will pass overhead, possibly leading to a secondary burst of moderate to heavy snow before precipitation winds down late evening/overnight.

Model Guidance:
- Bimodal Distribution: There is a split in model predictions regarding the system's track and precipitation amounts/types.
  - GFS/NAM Models: Suggest a more northern track with significant snowfall across the forecast area, potentially exceeding 6 inches in some areas.
  - Global Models (Euro, Canadian, UKMET, ICON): Indicate a southern QPF maximum, leading to reduced snowfall north of I-66/US-50, with advisory-level snowfall expected in those areas.

Warnings:
- A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for areas south of the I-66/US-50 corridor due to expected warning-level impacts from snow or a mix of snow and sleet/freezing rain.
- A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for northern Maryland and parts of the WV Panhandle due to uncertainty in precipitation amounts, which could range from advisory to warning levels.

Conclusion:
Monitor updates as the situation evolves, especially overnight after new guidance becomes available.

[SnowenOutThere]

50 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We're surprisingly well behaved in the storm mode thread.   What's going on with yall?

I got you, give me a second to make a meme 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Sold 

 

Hold on a second I've got a small pet peeve on these snow maps, and @mappyperhaps you can answer this since it's geographical: You see that northeast corner of Baltimore city? That's  where I am. What is the difference in elevation from there to the west part of the city? I notice on snow maps that sometimes it'll draw a line around there. Or...perhaps it's because that piece is technically closer to the water?

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ok Ravens, take care of business. No injuries. Get a lead and rest some players.

Why does something tell me Lamar may have more incompletions today and just enough to miss the passer rating record? See, trying to break a record be like that sometimes, lol

[Demeter]

1 hour ago, wawarriors4 said:

It is a good run for EZF. The Nam for EZF with its hole was comical. I really do like the 5-8”+ with some ice on top as a forecast around FXBG from NWS LWX.

You know I saw that NAM run and all I could do was laugh at the hole over my house hahaha!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Okay, snow map pron time. 

(Moving my reply here to Banter, to avoid Storm Mode Wrath!)...

At first when I read your comment, I thought you said "Snow map PROM time"!!!  Then realized the (purposeful?) reversal of the letters in "pron"!!! LOL!  Though I suppose "prom" can work too, we'd definitely all dance with that (with a little snow "pron" afterward hahaha!)! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Demeter said:

You know I saw that NAM run and I’ll I could do was laugh at the hole over my house hahaha!

I sure hope that NAM precip hole is waaay overdone.  I don't think other models show that much dryness.

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why does something tell me Lamar may have more incompletions today and just enough to miss the passer rating record? See, trying to break a record be like that sometimes, lol

Just numbers.

Lets hope Zay is okay.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, CAPE said:

Just numbers.

Lets hope Zay is okay.

I'm hoping it's just a bruise or something like that. Didn't look like it buckled or got bent...they were saying somebody's fist or knee may have caught it (hopefully that's all it was!)

[Kay]

2 hours ago, katabatic said:

Wanted to get out of the house so drove to Blackwater Falls in Davis. It was spectacular. Easily 18 inches on the ground and not busy at all. We are all likely getting some snow to scratch that itch, but if you want a wonderful day trip to a winter wonderland tomorrow, I couldn’t recommend this more.

This makes my eyes happy. Gorgeous.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Kay said:

This makes my eyes happy. Gorgeous.

Indeed. Inspiring photo!

[CAPE]

Harbaugh ya know, sometimes just take the damn 3. Twice now.

[Benjamn3]

I’m so team UKIE I just got the ingredients for my milk sammiches. 

[WxUSAF]

0 for 2 on 4th down in the red zone. Probably can get away with it against the browns. Not next week.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

0 for 2 on 4th down in the red zone. Probably can get away with it against the browns. Not next week.

But why do it?  Let Tucker kick. 

[Benjamn3]

This is what my I phone says. Not including 2-4 from the day before…

lock it in. 

[WxUSAF]

Sloppy first half on offense 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Sloppy first half on offense 

Could be up 20-3 despite that. Harbaugh lol.