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January Banter 2025


George BM
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Kinda shocked at your feelings on this.  Thought you'd love it.

I don’t like dumb name changes in general. It’s why I still call redskins and still refer to national airport.

But having a major airport named after trump in our town would be awful imo. Same as it would if it was Biden
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4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

All in good fun, I'm just a lifelong psycho eagles fan, all family from Philly. Awesome to see the NFC east duking it out for the NFC title. Daniels is legit.

Of course. I’m just not in the camp of “it’s been a great season.” Our defense is terrible. Has been all year. It’s been a fun year. But we have a lot of holes to fill on defense.

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The conspiracy theory narrative around the chiefs is comical at best to me. We had an entire thread on the Washington Philly game yesterday complaining about the refs and how that game was rigged, not to mention every other fan saying the same thing when their team loses a game in any sport. Are there some close questionable calls....certainly but as with anything in life if there's a choice to give the call to someone who has proven to be successful over a long period of time vs someone who recently stopped eating their own boogers i'm pretty sure the call will go for the successful team. Moral of my rant....stop eating your boogers and be successful for awhile so you can start getting the calls your way. 

 

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Such a weird discussion of the coming warm-up in the long range thread.  Even in the coldest of winters, we will have days in the 40s and 50s (and even 60s) on occasion.  Its...normal? It's normal.  That happens. And just because it gets warm for a period of days doesn't mean that will hold. It's gonna be cold again before true spring. 

This last three weeks is the longest sustained cold w/ snow cover we have had in a long time. Even up my way, where the snow totals in each storm were disappointing (as usual) what did fall has held onto frozen ground for 3 weeks now.  

In any event, it will warm up for a bit. Good! It will at some point cool down and get cold again. Also good! It will at some point, threaten to snow again, and, when it does, if you are two counties away from me in any direction - depending on the storm track - you will be happy! 

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Such a weird discussion of the coming warm-up in the long range thread.  Even in the coldest of winters, we will have days in the 40s and 50s (and even 60s) on occasion.  Its...normal? It's normal.  That happens. And just because it gets warm for a period of days doesn't mean that will hold. It's gonna be cold again before true spring. 

This last three weeks is the longest sustained cold w/ snow cover we have had in a long time. Even up my way, where the snow totals in each storm were disappointing (as usual) what did fall has held onto frozen ground for 3 weeks now.  

In any event, it will warm up for a bit. Good! It will at some point cool down and get cold again. Also good! It will at some point, threaten to snow again, and, when it does, if you are two counties away from me in any direction - depending on the storm track - you will be happy! 

Depends on when that is...you know what it's like for the I-95 crew. Snow for us starts getting messy real fast after PD. So hopefully this warm-up can just last a week or two at the most.

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45 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Depends on when that is...you know what it's like for the I-95 crew. Snow for us starts getting messy real fast after PD. So hopefully this warm-up can just last a week or two at the most.

A lot of our snowstorms in the urban corridor are "messy" and barely cold enough even in the middle of the winter.  Our chances of a snowstorm don't start to decrease significantly until around March 10-15 then go way down by March 20.  However, the odds of keeping snowcover for any extended period of time go way down once to mid February.  

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

A lot of our snowstorms in the urban corridor are "messy" and barely cold enough even in the middle of the winter.  Our chances of a snowstorm don't start to decrease significantly until around March 10-15 then go way down by March 20.  However, the odds of keeping snowcover for any extended period of time go way down once to mid February.  

March snow, in DC at least, is choppy.  Only 4 winters since 2000 have produced 2"+.  Of course, that's DCA, so take it for what it's worth.

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

A lot of our snowstorms in the urban corridor are "messy" and barely cold enough even in the middle of the winter.  Our chances of a snowstorm don't start to decrease significantly until around March 10-15 then go way down by March 20.  However, the odds of keeping snowcover for any extended period of time go way down once to mid February.  

Bur after PD they get messier tho, lol Sun angle for one thing...we start needing crap like needing better rates and it having to start at night to accumulate <_< (and even more unrealistic snowmaps on models, lol). I get that we have done it before, but again it's been an entire decade since it actually worked past PD.

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bur after PD they get messier tho, lol Sun angle for one thing...we start needing crap like needing better rates and it having to start at night to accumulate <_< (and even more unrealistic snowmaps on models, lol). I get that we have done it before, but again it's been an entire decade since it actually worked past PD.

What are you talking about, Baltimore had a snowstorm in March 7 years in a row from 2013 to 2019. The last 5 years weren’t good but those were mostly warm winters and 2022 you missed a 3-6” snow by like 10 miles. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What are you talking about, Baltimore had a snowstorm in March 7 years in a row from 2013 to 2019. The last 5 years weren’t good but those were mostly warm winters and 2022 you missed a 3-6” snow by like 10 miles. 

2016 I don't remember...wasn't that the one-hit wonder year? And I thought 2017 was the one that turned into a sleet bomb instead...Now 2018 I remember there being all those 1 and 2 inchers in March like 3 weeks in a row, so I guess that counts. Now 2019 I don't remember at all! 2022 must've been a Miller whatever that just missed.

And I guess we're defining "snowstorm" differently. I count that as over 3 inches at least.

All that to say...I guess you're right. I think I've blocked it out since nothing post 2015 has stood out in my memory because it's been so bad overall.

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30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

2016 I don't remember...wasn't that the one-hit wonder year? And I thought 2017 was the one that turned into a sleet bomb instead...Now 2018 I remember there being all those 1 and 2 inchers in March like 3 weeks in a row, so I guess that counts. Now 2019 I don't remember at all! 2022 must've been a Miller whatever that just missed.

And I guess we're defining "snowstorm" differently. I count that as over 3 inches at least.

All that to say...I guess you're right. I think I've blocked it out since nothing post 2015 has stood out in my memory because it's been so bad overall.

2016 there was a 2” snow from a coastal that didn’t amplify much. Was a shame.  Could have been a big storm but it was weak.  2017 Was the sleet bomb yes. 
 

How often has Baltimore had a 3” snow in any month lately?  Baltimore has had 3” and 5” the same amount in March as Feb since 2009!  We had this debate about 4 years ago and I wasted a few hours breaking every snow event down by week and found that the chances of  3”/6”/9” events are pretty steady through the first 2 weeks of March. Also our weekly average snow is pretty steady. The chances of getting a 6” snow are really low in any given week but aren’t much lower the first week of March than now. What does go down after Feb 20 are the chances of a 12”+ event.   The notion that early March is harder to snow just isn’t supported by the data. 
 

This is perception bias. Yes most of our threats in March fail. End up too warm. But guess what, that’s true in February also!  But in early March for some reason people attribute it to it being to late instead of the synoptic reasons it failed. Look at last week. We just had a marginal setup fail in DC and Baltimore and snow on the NW elevated portions of this forum. If that had happened early March you would have said it was because it was too late. I know because in 2019 almost the exact same setup happened and it snowed in almost the exact same areas in the same amounts but everyone acted like the fail was because it was early March when the issue was synoptic. The wave tracked too far NW which can happen anytime.  Or think of Feb 8 2021. A perfect track coastal failed because of warm boundary temps. I got 6” here but anyone without elevation was too warm. But in 2013 when that happened we blamed it on being too late. It’s perception bias. We fail because it’s too warm most of the time even in January and February. 

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