High Wind Thursday - 01.02.25

[weatherwiz]

As one of Eminem's songs states, "Cold Wind Blows" and it will be blowing on Thursday. An area of deepening surface low pressure moving northeast across the region Wednesday into Thursday, combined with a large high pressure system building into the mid-South yields a strong pressure gradient across the Northeast Thursday. 925mb winds are expected to be greater than 40 knots region wide with 850mb winds exceeding 50 knots (while weakening through the afternoon). Forecast models indicate the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates region wide with a lapse rate within the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere up around 9 C/KM, indicative of strong low-level mixing. 

Bufkit model soundings from both the GFS and NAM indicate the potential for widespread wind gusts of 55-60+ mph with sustained winds anywhere from 15-30 mph. While widespread wind advisories are already in place, I would not be surprised if we see some upgrades to a high wind warning over the next day. While the trees are bare which will limit the potential for damage, due to the magnitude and duration of strong winds, scattered power outages are likely along with some downed trees and limbs. 

There also may be a nice localized pocket of light-to-moderate snow within the Greens of southern Vermont Thursday which could net several-plus inches of accumulation. 

12z NAM bufkit for BDL Thursday afternoon. Don't see NAM outmix the GFS too often

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s see who can rip 60-70!

[Torch Tiger]

80?

[FXWX]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As one of Eminem's songs states, "Cold Wind Blows" and it will be blowing on Thursday. An area of deepening surface low pressure moving northeast across the region Wednesday into Thursday, combined with a large high pressure system building into the mid-South yields a strong pressure gradient across the Northeast Thursday. 925mb winds are expected to be greater than 40 knots region wide with 850mb winds exceeding 50 knots (while weakening through the afternoon). Forecast models indicate the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates region wide with a lapse rate within the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere up around 9 C/KM, indicative of strong low-level mixing. 

Bufkit model soundings from both the GFS and NAM indicate the potential for widespread wind gusts of 55-60+ mph with sustained winds anywhere from 15-30 mph. While widespread wind advisories are already in place, I would not be surprised if we see some upgrades to a high wind warning over the next day. While the trees are bare which will limit the potential for damage, due to the magnitude and duration of strong winds, scattered power outages are likely along with some downed trees and limbs. 

There also may be a nice localized pocket of light-to-moderate snow within the Greens of southern Vermont Thursday which could net several-plus inches of accumulation. 

12z NAM bufkit for BDL Thursday afternoon. Don't see NAM outmix the GFS too often

Forecasting these nw to se tight gradient with solid mixing events is so much easier to verify than when we chase those pain in the ass southerly high wind events that often have inversion issues.  

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Forecasting these nw to se tight gradient with solid mixing events is so much easier to verify than when we chase those pain in the ass southerly high wind events that often have inversion issues.  

Right  

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Right  

As long as my flight which leaves Thursday morning at 6:40 from Bradley isn't delayed. I'm thinking that the strongest winds will be happening after that. I'm hoping. ( And of course I wish Kev All the wind damage you can possibly get when I leave LOL ) 

[dendrite]

Under

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Under

Shocking . You never over anything 

[dendrite]

I’ll go mostly 40-45…a few sites over it.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1874212227076505673?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[DavisStraight]

Great, another weekend spent picking up branches and sticks in the yard.

[bristolri_wx]

Unlike Tom Petty, models have backed down on the wind gusts. 925 mb charts looks like 35-45 MPH gusts for most.

[Damage In Tolland]

Everything still on tack for rips 50-60 mph tomorrow. Should be fun especially late morning thru late afternoon 

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything still on tack for rips 50-60 mph tomorrow. Should be fun especially late morning thru late afternoon 

Good... As long as my flight gets out at 6:15 am with no issues

[SJonesWX]

Taking the under, as always with “high” wind events

[WinterWolf]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything still on tack for rips 50-60 mph tomorrow. Should be fun especially late morning thru late afternoon 

Ryan’s channel says 35-45 mph at most.  Wind advisory.  According to them it’s run of the mill no big deal.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ryan’s channel says 35-45 mph at most.  Wind advisory.  According to them it’s run of the mill no big deal.  

You’ve got 45-55 at top of mixed layer with steepening lapse rates and strong CAA. It’s going to rip , especially with extra help from daytime heating tomorrow . Elevations favored as usual in any wind event for biggest gusts.. but sometimes these channel into your area of the valley there .

https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1874536470561816785?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[dendrite]

Zzzzzzz

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Zzzzzzz

Have you looked at Bufkit? 

[dendrite]

GL mixing down 100% of the winds at 850. It will be a breezy day. But 40-45 gusts from the west in winter is nbd. Enjoy the advisory.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

GL mixing down 100% of the winds at 850. It will be a breezy day. But 40-45 gusts from the west in winter is nbd. Enjoy the advisory.

So just toss all guidance ? No gusts over 50? Good luck bro . That’s bad 

 

[dendrite]

Beer

[Damage In Tolland]

Your area never looked as windy. Obviously haven’t looked at much if a few gusts to 40 is the call . 
 

As we begin to tap into the stronger
winds aloft, we may see wind gusts as strong as 45 mph in the high
terrain and over the islands overnight. The peak of the winds for
all of SNE, however, comes Thursday, as a warming surface promotes
better mixing down from the top of the mixed layer. A Wind Advisory
is in effect for all of southern New England where gusts are
generally expected to be 45-55 mph. However, isolated stronger gusts
are possible, up to 60 mph in spots, especially in the highest
elevations. 

[dendrite]

Strongest 850 winds are actually up here midday tomorrow. Best down there is around midnight.

[Damage In Tolland]

GL 

[NoCORH4L]

BOX not impressed enough to upgrade to a warning. Typical CAA mehness.

[512high]

Highest gust on home Davis was 24mph @ 535am.... just get the ground frozen, over 1.25" of rain over the last week, suck winter continues.

[SJonesWX]

i hope and i pray that everyone on the forum is staying safe from these horrific high winds. i have my family in the storm bunker riding this out

[Brewbeer]

still fairly calm here IMBY

[Ginx snewx]

Wasn't the wind overnight? Big gusts in the 40s around 2 AM