January 4-6th Winter Storm

[KeenerWx]

3 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Euro/GDPS/UKIE vs. GFS/ICON. Pick your team.

Could be wrong but I faintly recall the Euro being quite garbage the last cold season. No idea on the verification metrics on the other models.

At this point it looks like locally I'm either on the brutal side of a gradient or getting a good whiff south. I'm just rooting for our southern forum family to get something good. 

[OHweather]

Euro ensemble trended a bit stronger with upper level confluence over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes ahead of the storm, and resulted in a bump south. 

[Radtechwxman]

Gfs being consistently north and wetter vs euro being south and drier. Who's going to win? Sadly feel like it might be Euro

[KeenerWx]

1 hour ago, Radtechwxman said:

Gfs being consistently north and wetter vs euro being south and drier. Who's going to win? Sadly feel like it might be Euro

Euro has been consistent trash. But wise to cut the precip output from GFS.

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, KeenerWx said:

Euro has been consistent trash. But wise to cut the precip output from GFS.

06z gfs did. At least north. Curious to see if models change once system gets sampled

[DocATL]

Pretty clear from the 06z GFS that Chicago could get goose egged. Even after this system, it’s very bleak through mid January.


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[buckeye]

hard to ignore euro’s south trend which continues at 6z.    

[Chambana]

10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

hard to ignore euro’s south trend which continues at 6z.    

Came here to the same. Ugly trend this morning. Yikes 

[buckeye]

9 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Came here to the same. Ugly trend this morning. Yikes 

well there's always that break the glass weenie rule:   energy isn't on shore yet....let's see if better sampling changes things

[WestMichigan]

22 minutes ago, buckeye said:

well there's always that break the glass weenie rule:   energy isn't on shore yet....let's see if better sampling changes things

Rooting for the Central OH crew.  It has been a long time waiting for this.  Only problem is my kids have to go back to college south of Springfield on Monday so it is kind of a hope it doesn't happen thing also.  Might send them back a day earlier to avoid the storm.

[cyclone77]

Looking like a complete shutout for DVN/LOT except for maybe the far southern tiers.  Hopefully Chicago can at least score some consolation lake effect.

[mimillman]

14 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Looks like about 3" imby, call looking $$$

[Stevo6899]

23 hours ago, Stebo said:

It's just too strong of a high and once the storm gets east it gets pulled straight east with the confluence and the block in the east.

If that high wasn't there, alot of us would be getting rain so alot has to do where the low originates and ejects too. Both going against us on this one. Colorado lows don't usually deliver the goods east of Chicago. Guess we gotta deal with 20s and dry for awhile. 

[Stevo6899]

23 hours ago, Stebo said:

His stats are right, the northern suburbs have done better. It is just a fact.

Yea you're not understanding my point either. It's all good. People can sugarcoat it all they want but the last 5 winters have been garbage for bigger storms, but downriver has done just as well with the bigger events. Down in florida and might catch a flight to st louis and enjoy the storm with cousin in Springfield as they look like a good spot for this one.

[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea you're not understanding my point either. It's all good. People can sugarcoat it all they want but the last 5 winters have been garbage for bigger storms, but downriver has done just as well with the bigger events. Down in florida and might catch a flight to st louis and enjoy the storm with cousin in Springfield as they look like a good spot for this one.

There is no evidence of them having bigger storms either, just take the L and move on. Multiple people here in the metro have said that you are not right.

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

If that high wasn't there, alot of us would be getting rain so alot has to do where the low originates and ejects too. Both going against us on this one. Colorado lows don't usually deliver the goods east of Chicago. Guess we gotta deal with 20s and dry for awhile. 

This is a Texas low coming out of the panhandle.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

well there's always that break the glass weenie rule:   energy isn't on shore yet....let's see if better sampling changes things

Honestly that has really lost its luster, the satellite data and ship data is pretty good that is getting integrated. There really isn't much "better sampling" these days.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

hard to ignore euro’s south trend which continues at 6z.    

Everything went south, the problem I am seeing is the strength of the system is much weaker too, narrowing the band of snow as well. That to me is the bigger issue than the shifts.

[Frog Town]

From Cleveland's Weather office-

Simultaneously, a surface low pressure will enter the Ohio Valley
from the west and bring our next round of impactful weather. The
track of the low and therefore higher QPF/snow amounts has continued
to trend northward. With this forecast update, snowfall amounts
Sunday afternoon through Monday have increased to 3-6 inches south
of US-30 with the potential for upwards of 6 inches across the
southernmost zones in our local forecast area. There still remains
some uncertainty with the placement of the highest QPF so opted not
to issue any headlines with this forecast update. Future shifts will
continue to monitor trends with winter weather headlines possibly
needed Sunday night through Monday.

[DocATL]

Yeah…I was really doubtful about that. Proud of him for throwing out a little optimism though! Still think an inch downtown is probable.


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[nwohweather]

13 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This is a Texas low coming out of the panhandle.

Right? It's a panhandle hook that isn't hooking 

[Stebo]

10 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Right? It's a panhandle hook that isn't hooking 

Yeah that's the problem, it is just moving straight east

[RCNYILWX]

Big drop in the 6"+ probs on the past few EPS and GEFS across our southern counties. 06z EPS only has 50-70% 6"+ probs roughly from STL to Lawrenceville. Barring a big change back in the other direction, we're not planning to hoist a watch this afternoon for the southern tier of counties in the LOT CWA.

[SchaumburgStormer]

The south and drier trend is flaring again… 

[nwohweather]

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah that's the problem, it is just moving straight east

Pretty impressive this high is this strong with no snowpack aid at the surface really at all. Congrats to Indy, Cincy, Columbus & Pittsburgh. I'm just happy I'll be able to go over to Mt Brighton for some fake snow for the next few weeks

[A-L-E-K]

currently riding the canadian obv

[Stevo6899]

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

This is a Texas low coming out of the panhandle.

Either way the energy starts out and organizes in a region where we would get at best a mix if there was no block, and a decently wound up low. 

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Either way the energy starts out and organizes in a region where we would get at best a mix if there was no block, and a decently wound up low. 

Texas lows are our favored track for snowstorms here, so no it isn't 'at best a mix'. Colorado lows are more favored to track to our west.

[Stevo6899]

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

There is no evidence of them having bigger storms either, just take the L and move on. Multiple people here in the metro have said that you are not right.

The whole argument was that the past 5 winters have sucked and downriver has seen just as much action as other areas. Y'all can sugarcoat and scoot around it all you want.  

[Stevo6899]

6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Texas lows are our favored track for snowstorms here, so no it isn't 'at best a mix'. Colorado lows are more favored to track to our west.

Gulf lows are the best. Lows that come out of panhandle and this current one favors areas to our west. But you can keep going against what I say for fun if you want. A strenghtheing low coming out of NE Oklahoma in no way would deliver here, and easily track through chicago, at best fort wayne.