Frog Town Posted Saturday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:39 PM It's' gonna be all good cause I'm riding the RAP on this one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Saturday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:51 PM 12z gfs definitely more north with snow band esp that initial waa push 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM 12z Euro seems to have upped snow totals some thru South/Central Illinois compared to the 0z, looks to be a touch north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Saturday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:05 PM 16 minutes ago, CIllinoisSnow said: 12z Euro seems to have upped snow totals some thru South/Central Illinois compared to the 0z, looks to be a touch north as well Still pretty far south compared to other models esp regarding the heaviest band. Seems closer to I70 whereas other models are more I72. But nice to see precip shield extending north. Dry air worries me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted Saturday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:10 PM 3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Still pretty far south compared to other models esp regarding the heaviest band. Seems closer to I70 whereas other models are more I72. But nice to see precip shield extending north. Dry air worries me though. That definitely worries me as well being on the northern edge. At least it didn’t go any further south. I’ll take any small victory I can get haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Saturday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:15 PM 4 minutes ago, CIllinoisSnow said: That definitely worries me as well being on the northern edge. At least it didn’t go any further south. I’ll take any small victory I can get haha You and me both. Baby steps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Saturday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:23 PM 18z nam's still give me hope. Hrrr not so much. BRUTAL cutoff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted Saturday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:30 PM It's hard to get anything done when there are new models to view lol. Today's runs have given some hope for us in the Peoria area, but man what a devastating cutoff on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Saturday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:48 PM Blizzard Warnings up for parts of Kansas and northwest Missouri. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Saturday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:50 PM Call looking $$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted Saturday at 09:09 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:09 PM 18z hrrr goes crazy on the tri-state area, keeping the sleet/snow line well in kentucky 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted Saturday at 11:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:21 PM Can a MET with more knowledge of the RAP model comment on the north trend it has? I know it's not real popular but is it sniffing something out? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Saturday at 11:26 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:26 PM From ILX. To me this is the dumbest way to word a Winter Storm Warning. Is the public really more responsive to probabilities? Just tell me how much snow to expect. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow likely near and south of a Beardstown to Paris line. A high confidence (80% chance) of at least 6 inches of snow. A medium confidence (40% chance) of at least 12 inches of snow. Blowing snow likely with wind gusts up to 35 mph. Mixed precipitation possible. A low confidence (30% chance) of at least one tenth of an inch of ice near and south of US Highway 50. * WHERE...Heavy snowfall across portions of central, east central, southeast, and west central Illinois. Freezing rain and ice accumulation confined to areas near and south of US Highway 50 across southeast Illinois. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted Saturday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:30 PM 9 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Can a MET with more knowledge of the RAP model comment on the north trend it has? I know it's not real popular but is it sniffing something out? Asking for a friend. RAP is a very coarse model, I wouldn't use it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted Saturday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:37 PM That's what I figured, Stebo. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Saturday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:52 PM Here's to hoping I can eek out a half inch before another week of boredom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM 31 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Here's to hoping I can eek out a half inch before another week of boredom Looking forward to a thick cirrus canopy with some dim sunshine from time to time and brisk east winds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looking forward to a thick cirrus canopy with some dim sunshine from time to time. Yeah dude you've really been getting boned this year right? Hopefully we'll cash in soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:40 AM 4 hours ago, fluoronium said: It's hard to get anything done when there are new models to view lol. Today's runs have given some hope for us in the Peoria area, but man what a devastating cutoff on the north side. Dude you have no idea. Lol. I'm hella stressed. I'm in north Peoria and models like hrrr/rap have me nervous because cutoff could be I74. Nam gave me a little hope. Euro still so south. Gfs holding north. No idea what to expect here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted yesterday at 01:22 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:22 AM Ice has shut down KC airport and some roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted yesterday at 01:28 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:28 AM 42 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Dude you have no idea. Lol. I'm hella stressed. I'm in north Peoria and models like hrrr/rap have me nervous because cutoff could be I74. Nam gave me a little hope. Euro still so south. Gfs holding north. No idea what to expect here. I feel ya, i’m in the same boat, I’m back at home for Christmas Break about 30ish miles north of Champaign and the cutoff is insane, a 20 mile shift north/south could mean the difference between nothing and the biggest snowfall i’ve had since Feb 2022, we’re gonna be stressing it out together lol Will be interested very soon when we can start seeing actual observations and comparing them to the modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted yesterday at 02:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:05 AM First flurries are flying here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted yesterday at 02:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:08 AM 00Z HRR should make some on the northern edge feel better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted yesterday at 02:17 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:17 AM That's what I figured, Stebo. Thank you. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/4/mwr-d-15-0242.1.xmlThe RAP is 13 km resolution, vs. 9km for the ECMWF, and 12km for the GFS and NAM, of the most commonly cited non-CAM guidance. The GDPS (GGEM) is run at 15km resolution and the RDPS (RGEM) is run at 10 km resolution. Finally, the UKMET is at 10 km resolution.What makes the extended RAP runs more prone to errors is that it's a hot start, hourly updating model with radar reflectivity as part of its data assimilation. This is just like the HRRR (which is initialized with RAP data) is more prone to errors in extended ranges.Think of the outer ranges of the RAP like days out on the ECMWF and GFS and beyond 24-36 hours out on the NAM. The RAP/HRRR can be right beyond 12 hours out, but in general they're more likely to be reliable within 12 hours, and even more so within 6 hours. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM just noticed this: ice accrual is now a measurement that's in the METAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted yesterday at 02:38 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 AM 1 hour ago, CIllinoisSnow said: I feel ya, i’m in the same boat, I’m back at home for Christmas Break about 30ish miles north of Champaign and the cutoff is insane, a 20 mile shift north/south could mean the difference between nothing and the biggest snowfall i’ve had since Feb 2022, we’re gonna be stressing it out together lol Will be interested very soon when we can start seeing actual observations and comparing them to the modeling Definitely going to be a lot of nowcasting tomorrow with this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Street Posted yesterday at 03:35 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:35 AM Checking in from Plainfield, IN. Will update totals as they happen here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM Been noticing an area of lower totals that have been continuing to show up on multiple models now in East/NE Illinois, anyone know the reason that could be? Perhaps significant dry air getting into the system that models are picking up on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted yesterday at 04:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:03 AM 6 minutes ago, CIllinoisSnow said: Been noticing an area of lower totals that have been continuing to show up on multiple models now in East/NE Illinois, anyone know the reason that could be? Perhaps significant dry air getting into the system that models are picking up on? Yeah it's the dry ne fetch around periphery of arctic high. Eating into the snow. The precip is going into saturating the column instead of falling to ground. The more north you are the drier the air and harder/longer it will be to precipitate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted yesterday at 04:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:07 AM The Blizzard Warning has been expanded to include all of the KC metro area... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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