A-L-E-K Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Riding 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Riding Cheater.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Saw this thing heading south on 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Saw this thing heading south on 75 Makes sense. Heading south to see the snow. Which poster is driving? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm hugging the 48hr. 18z HRRR like a lifeboat on the titanic.The lifeboat has a hole.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Makes sense. Heading south to see the snow. Which poster is driving? Malacka me and ALEK on a road trip. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Alek hacking ECMWF to save his call 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Can anyone explain why the foreign models (EURO, GPDS, UKMET) have the heaviest snow band south of the ohio river whereas the American models have the heaviest snow band tracking near i70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z GFS: 18z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Spartman said: 18z GFS: 18z NAM: And yet us cmh’ers are tying our nooses… that’s how much faith we have in the American models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 When was the last time the models were this locked in 5 days in advance with little deviation. If this was a Chicago storm the models would be all over the place. best of luck to everyone south and east!!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: When was the last time the models were this locked in 5 days in advance with little deviation. If this was a Chicago storm the models would be all over the place. best of luck to everyone south and east!!! Locked with little deviation? For those of us out of the game we dont watch as closely, but for individual details there has been plenty of the usual deviation. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z euro ticked backed north... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 HRRR snow fall. Lol and the storm isnt even over in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 some of us may need to chill on the dooming, lol. sref (not sure how it does for winter wx) still has the most significant accumulations farther north, especially compared to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 16 minutes ago, largetornado said: HRRR snow fall. Lol and the storm isnt even over in this run. LOL. 27.5" in Manhattan KS would be the end of the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 the ukmet, OTOH, would be very dissapointing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Everything other than gfs and nam is a complete wiff for CMH now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Cutoff absolutely brutal over my county. May get nothing here. Gfs my only hope. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Bullseye in my backyard, lock it in (0z RGEM) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We ride^ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Parameters for LE on the southern shore of Lake Michigan are ok/decent. It seems like most of the time the deterministic model output is too far west for band placement. There are exceptions, of course. Best to expect flurries for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Latest runs from every model. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I know every storm is different, but I can't be the only one in here that remembers sitting 12 hours out from a snow storm, Winter Storm Warning of 8-12" locked and loaded, only watch the thing go way north and nail mid Michigan and Wisconsin at the very last minute. I understand that NW Ohio and SE Michigan is in a weird screw zone between storm hand offs to the coast, and negative tilts but the struggle is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I know every storm is different, but I can't be the only one in here that remembers sitting 12 hours out from a snow storm, Winter Storm Warning of 8-12" locked and loaded, only watch the thing go way north and nail mid Michigan and Wisconsin at the very last minute. I understand that NW Ohio and SE Michigan is in a weird screw zone between storm hand offs to the coast, and negative tilts but the struggle is real. Eh it isn’t all sunshine and roses for the Ohio River Valley. With that warm air surging in you’re going to see sleet and freezing rain encroach on those snow totals a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z nams appear to have come north a bit with snow band. System should of been sampled for 12z runs. Curious to see if it is stronger and maybe a trend back north could start. Not holding my breath though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Depends on where you are. West it went north a bit, but east it went south. Orientation changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Frog Town said: I know every storm is different, but I can't be the only one in here that remembers sitting 12 hours out from a snow storm, Winter Storm Warning of 8-12" locked and loaded, only watch the thing go way north and nail mid Michigan and Wisconsin at the very last minute. I understand that NW Ohio and SE Michigan is in a weird screw zone between storm hand offs to the coast, and negative tilts but the struggle is real. there have been a handful of storms here in Central Ohio over the last several decades that were forecasted to give us 6+ inches of snow 24 hours out and busted. Every one of those busts was a result of a last minute push north with the precip and the warm nose shutting off the precip, or changing it to sleet or rain. Not a single bust was a result of the snow shield not making it far enough north or being shunted south. I'm not saying that can't happen, but when I've seen it happen in other places, it's a result of a very strong arctic high just to the north pressing harder than models were forecasting. Granted, I'd much rather see a more neutral to neg tilted trough if I'm hoping for a surprise northern push, but I still think an unexpected northern push of precip has a better chance than a southern miss if those are the only two choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Depends on where you are. West it went north a bit, but east it went south. Orientation changed. Valid point. Ha. Regardless it actually gave me snow. Miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I just got NAM’d in southeast Dupage county! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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