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January 4-6th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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  On 1/2/2025 at 4:18 PM, Frog Town said:

You think this is just noise, or the starting of something for the southern lakes?? 

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It has all to do with the location of the vort lobe over James Bay and the confluence in the east, the lobe was slower and further NE this run, and the confluence was weaker. It opened up the opportunity for it to move further north before sliding east. It is something that will need to be watched for further trends or regression.

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Nail biter for me in the peoria area, especially if the northern cuttoff ends up as sharp as the euro is showing. NAM being in south camp has me worried as well as it has sniffed out local snow busts pretty well in recent years.

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  On 1/2/2025 at 4:26 PM, talaub said:
Thank You!

I got you bud. The water boils because of complex chemical reactions but it also boils because somebody wanted tea

Sometimes the data will suggest the weather has been contrary to what we experience. Both can exist in harmony

After all, not all 6 inch snow storms feel the same but the spreadsheet is indifferent
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Neat visualization from the 12z GFS, really would like to see more snow in the more intense precip bands than freezing rain, but maybe it'll come back around

Also, freezing rain at 24° ground temps means that there's got to be one hell of a warm nose at like 850mb, right?

avNrXP0V3BoAAAAASUVORK5CYII=.png

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  On 1/2/2025 at 4:24 PM, fluoronium said:

Nail biter for me in the peoria area, especially if the northern cuttoff ends up as sharp as the euro is showing. NAM being in south camp has me worried as well as it has sniffed out local snow busts pretty well in recent years.

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In Peoria here as well! I share your same concerns. We are sitting uncomfortably close to that northern gradient. Any south shift and we may see little to no accumulation. Nam seems to be an outlier for now on south placement and it's also its long range so I wouldn't fully trust it. However, it can sniff things out sometimes so definitely uneasy. 

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  On 1/2/2025 at 5:12 PM, Radtechwxman said:

In Peoria here as well! I share your same concerns. We are sitting uncomfortably close to that northern gradient. Any south shift and we may see little to no accumulation. Nam seems to be an outlier for now on south placement and it's also its long range so I wouldn't fully trust it. However, it can sniff things out sometimes so definitely uneasy. 

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I'm by Peoria too, and I feel like I'd be ok with either extreme. Big snow is memorable, missed snow means a LOT less shoveling (I don't have a snowblower). So with my luck, I expect we'll get neither and end up with a forgettable-but-annoying 3-4".

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  On 1/2/2025 at 5:46 PM, Crispus said:

I'm by Peoria too, and I feel like I'd be ok with either extreme. Big snow is memorable, missed snow means a LOT less shoveling (I don't have a snowblower). So with my luck, I expect we'll get neither and end up with a forgettable-but-annoying 3-4".

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This winter has been so lame. I'm ready for a good snowstorm so full send. Ha. But thinking heaviest swath will be near or south of I72. 

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