January 5-6th Winter Storm

[ChiTownSnow]

7 minutes ago, Baum said:

like where i sit at this distance.

Get that lake going and small nudges in our favor from here in out 

[nwohweather]

As I said on the 30th, the pressure seemed a bit underdone considering all the energy at play here. Compared to yesterday's runs it's a tick more north and a bit stronger. I'd still favor the US 30 to US 20 corridor getting a nice thump of snow with ice concerns along the Ohio River and up into Columbus

[Stevo6899]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Definitely due for regression. But we still better get a damn 3+ snowfall. I never go by the "I've used my snowblower" line, because everyone's different with that. Some use it for an inch, others only for the biggest storms. We've had 7 storms of 6+ the last 5 years. But none last year.

Downriver has done better in recent winters. Northern burbs, there's been nothing much notable other than 2019 nov storm. It pisses me off every year when places way south of here get a big snow before us lol. Kc looks good right now.

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Downriver has done better in recent winters. Northern burbs, there's been nothing much notable other than 2019 nov storm. It pisses me off every year when places way south of here get a big snow before us lol. Kc looks good right now.

Im not so much mad that south of us should get nice snow. The places that are progged to get the best snow have less chances than us anyway, but also have done much more poorly wrt their climo than we have in recent years. I'm more irritated that this is it in the short term. Regardless how far north it goes or how far east before it shreds, you're going to see a ton of northern areas frozen with bare ground.

We likely will see some weak clippers pop up in the coming NW flow, but those can never be pegged with much lead time.

[dmc76]

12 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Downriver has done better in recent winters. Northern burbs, there's been nothing much notable other than 2019 nov storm. It pisses me off every year when places way south of here get a big snow before us lol. Kc looks good right now.

What in the world are you talking about? Sometimes I just think you just talk just to talk. you even know what you’re talking about? The answer is no.  If you want stats we actually keep track in all different communities in Southeast Michigan. Me and Josh keep track. The most snow is north west of the city towards Oxford. The least amount of snow is either far east towards Algonac or way south towards Monroe. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

T-Minus 3 model runs until we see the inevitable storm south/strung out model bed shitting.
 

Been a long time since we have seen the NW trend be a thing to pull N IL into the game. 

[ChiTownSnow]

TBH there is pretty good consistency among models at this point .some movement is inevitable... but

[nvck]

Pretty big uptrend for my area on the 12z EPS, also included a couple other stations around the region for everyone's viewing pleasure (or displeasure)

[mimillman]

Interested in the LE signal which appears robust but not sure this is an optimal set up 

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, dmc76 said:

What in the world are you talking about? Sometimes I just think you just talk just to talk. you even know what you’re talking about? The answer is no.  If you want stats we actually keep track in all different communities in Southeast Michigan. Me and Josh keep track. The most snow is north west of the city towards Oxford. The least amount of snow is either far east towards Algonac or way south towards Monroe. 

Yes that's normally true but in recent winters, last 5, downriver has done better with the bigger events. Learn how to read and follow along with the context.

[skiier04]

My first winter in Illinois. Looking pretty dang good for this one down here. This is normal, right? 

[ChiTownSnow]

End of nam run

[Powerball]

29 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

My first winter in Illinois. Looking pretty dang good for this one down here. This is normal, right? 

Lol...

[roardog]

It probably means nothing but the last two systems that nobody was paying attention to because it was too warm for much snow were NW trenders. I ended up with something like 1.70 inches of rain from the Sunday storm that a couple days before looked like it was going to stay south of the state. Even yesterday’s rain/snow mix moved NW at the last minute. 

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, roardog said:

It probably means nothing but the last two systems that nobody was paying attention to because it was too warm for much snow were NW trenders. I ended up with something like 1.70 inches of rain from the Sunday storm that a couple days before looked like it was going to stay south of the state. Even yesterday’s rain/snow mix moved NW at the last minute. 

Yeah..I have been watching that tiny wave ahead of it to see if it does the same

[Frog Town]

23 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

End of nam run

And this means??

[dmc76]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yes that's normally true but in recent winters, last 5, downriver has done better with the bigger events. Learn how to read and follow along with the context.

Absolutely and 100% incorrect and I have the stats to prove it 

[Baum]

43 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

End of nam run

locked and loaded.

[SchaumburgStormer]

48 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

End of nam run

Through 84 GFS looks nearly identical 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Stronger high in Can keeping the GFS further south with the low and precipitation shield  

[buckeye]

when i think of similar storms that trended north, (to my peril), I think of Feb. 12-13 '07.    That storm happened on a Tuesday.   Models were onto it a week before showing a several day runs in a row of a swath of 2-3' of snow across KY into DC.   Over the weekend the models started shifting north and by Sunday we were in the bullseye of the heavy swath .   That stayed consistent right up to the day of, Tuesday morning, where we had a winterstorm warning and were forecasted to get 12".    The comma head snow came up from the south looking like a solid wall of dark blue on the radar.  It started snowing around 8am and by 11am the pingers started and quickly everything turned to sleet.   We might have picked up an 1-2" before that happened, and we ended up with crap.   Meanwhile the storm became a full fledge blizzard for people further north and west, (including Lafayette home of you know who).

That was a brutal last minute north shift.    The set up is sort of similar with this one except the center of the PV was pretty much due north of the lakes in Canada vs further northeast where it is situated this time.

[IWXwx]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

when i think of similar storms that trended north, (to my peril), I think of Feb. 12-13 '07.    That storm happened on a Tuesday.   Models were onto it a week before showing a several day runs in a row of a swath of 2-3' of snow across KY into DC.   Over the weekend the models started shifting north and by Sunday we were in the bullseye of the heavy swath .   That stayed consistent right up to the day of, Tuesday morning, where we had a winterstorm warning and were forecasted to get 12".    The comma head snow came up from the south looking like a solid wall of dark blue on the radar.  It started snowing around 8am and by 11am the pingers started and quickly everything turned to sleet.   We might have picked up an 1-2" before that happened, and we ended up with crap.   Meanwhile the storm became a full fledge blizzard for people further north and west, (including Lafayette home of you know who).

That was a brutal last minute north shift.    The set up is sort of similar with this one except the center of the PV was pretty much due north of the lakes in Canada vs further northeast where it is situated this time.

[SchaumburgStormer]

18z GFS is an I-70 special. 

[ChiTownSnow]

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Through 84 GFS looks nearly identical 

NAM Northern energy seems a bit stronger and H in Canada weaker/slightly more north @same hour

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said:

NAM Northern energy seems a bit stronger and H in Canada weaker/slightly more north @same hour

Yeah, GFS def slightly more amped with the H which leads to the further south path. Lots of moving parts with big downstream consequences 

[Powerball]

7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

18z GFS is an I-70 special. 

18-20" of snow in STL?

Easy toss....

[KokomoWX]

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

when i think of similar storms that trended north, (to my peril), I think of Feb. 12-13 '07.    That storm happened on a Tuesday.   Models were onto it a week before showing a several day runs in a row of a swath of 2-3' of snow across KY into DC.   Over the weekend the models started shifting north and by Sunday we were in the bullseye of the heavy swath .   That stayed consistent right up to the day of, Tuesday morning, where we had a winterstorm warning and were forecasted to get 12".    The comma head snow came up from the south looking like a solid wall of dark blue on the radar.  It started snowing around 8am and by 11am the pingers started and quickly everything turned to sleet.   We might have picked up an 1-2" before that happened, and we ended up with crap.   Meanwhile the storm became a full fledge blizzard for people further north and west, (including Lafayette home of you know who).

That was a brutal last minute north shift.    The set up is sort of similar with this one except the center of the PV was pretty much due north of the lakes in Canada vs further northeast where it is situated this time.

One of my favorites.

[Radtechwxman]

That 18z gfs run was brutal. Going to be a long few days of back and forth. That sfc high needs to chill. Pun intended. 18z gefs rolling out now with decent amount of north tracks

[dmc76]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yes that's normally true but in recent winters, last 5, downriver has done better with the bigger events. Learn how to read and follow along with the context.

Numbers for the last 3 winters…

                  23/24  22/23  21/22   AVG

Monroe      16.5      23.8     37.0    25.7

Wyandotte  21.5     37.1       47.7    35.4

Macomb      29.9    43.7      55.8   43.1

Lake Orion   42.1     53.2      67.3   54.2 

[Powerball]

3 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Numbers for the last 3 winters…

                  23/24  22/23  21/22   AVG

Monroe      16.5      23.8     37.0    25.7

Wyandotte  21.5     37.1       47.7    35.4

Macomb      29.9    43.7      55.8   43.1

Lake Orion   42.1     53.2      67.3   54.2 

Where are you getting the "Macomb" and "Monroe" numbers from?

I'm assuming the Lake Orion and Wyandotte numbers are measurements from you and michsnowfreak...