DocATL Posted Friday at 02:39 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:39 AM The weenies 4th and 20 Hail Mary. 3 seconds left and down 9.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Friday at 02:45 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:45 AM 0z nam is interesting. Lol. I'm not trusting nam till Sat minimum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Friday at 02:58 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:58 AM 16 minutes ago, DocATL said: 3 seconds left and down 9. . fairly solid consensus at this range. But this is much more late in 3rd quarter. Not close to hail mary time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted Friday at 02:59 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:59 AM not loving the look that the gfs has with regards to ice / diminished snow potential. gonna be a tight gradient down here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted Friday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:13 AM 35 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: 0z nam is interesting. Lol. I'm not trusting nam till Sat minimum 3k nam keeps that H tucked back in Canada a bit more I agree it's not prime time yet for the nam here...but it is out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted Friday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:28 AM 49 minutes ago, DocATL said: 3 seconds left and down 9. . Pfft, easy. Free, untimed field goal kick because our fair catch was interfered with. Then we recover the onside kick, and throw a touchdown to tie it. 0z NAM (standard model) precip & snow swath south of 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted Friday at 03:30 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:30 AM Icon 18z and 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Friday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:43 AM 28 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: 3k nam keeps that H tucked back in Canada a bit more I agree it's not prime time yet for the nam here...but it is out west If that happened it definitely would allow for a northern push 10 minutes ago, Eaglesrck63 said: Icon 18z and 00z 0z icon seems a bit more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted Friday at 04:02 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:02 AM It's odd.. it's like the trajectory is shifting to more SW to NE but the snow accum map hasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Friday at 04:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:03 AM 00z GFS.... south on the western end, north on the eastern end. The totals are wildly overdone, but I'm just following the track of the snow path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Friday at 04:04 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:04 AM 0z gfs definitely stronger and nw. Major sleet/ice storm around STL. Huge snows north of there. Would be nice to see euro on board with this. Pretty clear why 0z gfs is more robust. Trough goes neg tilt and low closes off and doesn't open up till well east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted Friday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 AM Some of these runs are pretty much historic for the I-70 corridor, for lack of a better term. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted Friday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:18 AM 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Some of these runs are pretty much historic for the I-70 corridor, for lack of a better term. Yea I don’t know where all of our Indy posters went but 2 years ago this thread would be bonkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted Friday at 04:19 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:19 AM Just now, mimillman said: Yea I don’t know where all of our Indy posters went but 2 years ago this thread would be bonkers Both an upper tier snowstorm and ice storm is being suggested, blizzard conditions further west into KS and MO. Pulled some soundings earlier with the warm nose aloft and it was like 25-28 degrees at the surface, would lead to efficient accretion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Friday at 04:21 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:21 AM Creeping north. Might get to advisory level snows if this keeps up. Wish the Euro would join in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted Friday at 04:23 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:23 AM 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Yea I don’t know where all of our Indy posters went but 2 years ago this thread would be bonkers Too often these huge totals like the GFS have been spitting out don't verify and thermals are always our problem even if its well below freezing at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted Friday at 04:31 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:31 AM 16 minutes ago, andyhb said: Some of these runs are pretty much historic for the I-70 corridor, for lack of a better term. I'm curious if a more amped solution like gfs will verify. Aloft it was an impressive system. Low would take off more if confluence was less east. However with neg tilt and closed off 500mb low it still had a nice deformation band. Other models are more neutral tilt and shear it out faster. Someone near STL going to get a big ice storm. 9 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Creeping north. Might get to advisory level snows if this keeps up. Wish the Euro would join in. Would be nice to see euro trend towards gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted Friday at 04:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:41 AM 17 minutes ago, Sidewinder said: Too often these huge totals like the GFS have been spitting out don't verify and thermals are always our problem even if its well below freezing at surface. Early Jan sun angle will help you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted Friday at 04:58 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:58 AM 16 minutes ago, mimillman said: Early Jan sun angle will help you Beats October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted Friday at 05:09 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:09 AM Do not envy the LSX mets at all rn. If the storm goes even just a bit S, STL gets a foot plus of snow for one of the few times ever in it's record. If it goes just a bit N, STL gets a crippling ice storm of potentially an inch of ice with wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Friday at 05:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:15 AM 5 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: Do not envy the LSX mets at all rn. If the storm goes even just a bit S, STL gets a foot plus of snow for one of the few times ever in it's record. If it goes just a bit N, STL gets a crippling ice storm of potentially an inch of ice with wind. Monster sleet storm is in the table too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted Friday at 05:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:15 AM 4 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: Do not envy the LSX mets at all rn. If the storm goes even just a bit S, STL gets a foot plus of snow for one of the few times ever in it's record. If it goes just a bit N, STL gets a crippling ice storm of potentially an inch of ice with wind. Heh, luckily they're at the stage for another 12-24 hours where they can keep riding the watch and just say "highly impactful winter weather is likely" and not specify which particular type of highly impactful winter weather is most likely. Though given recent trends and how these things go, probably have to lean a bit more on the icy solution in the LSX area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernerd Posted Friday at 05:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:15 AM 55 minutes ago, mimillman said: Yea I don’t know where all of our Indy posters went but 2 years ago this thread would be bonkers We’re here. I suppose we’ve just become so accustomed to getting screwed on these big winter events that we ain’t gonna believe anything until we’re literally in our driveways shoveling snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted Friday at 05:23 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:23 AM Trends on the ensembles for our storm to dig a little/come in a bit slower, giving heights ahead of it more opportunity to rise as confluence lifts out to the northeast, certainly do support the notion of the apparent ongoing north trend. Euro ensemble trends: GFS ensemble trends: With that said, I don't think this thing is going 100s of miles farther north at this point, though the trends at 500mb do give room for last minute northward nudges at the least. One item to watch will be the little lobe of the polar vortex extending west towards James Bay. Trends in that could increase or decrease confluence ahead of our storm. More confluence makes a north trend harder (or could shrink the area of snow if the storm itself trends stronger/farther north but runs into a brick wall)...less confluence gives room for likely continued northward nudges. While the confluence lifting out could give the storm a bit more room to trend north, the relatively cold airmass in place ahead of the storm and the fact that there still is strong blocking and high pressure ahead of the storm still suggest low level cold will be tough to scour out. This synoptic setup screams a swath of significant sleet and freezing rain. While model freezing rain maps are almost always too aggressive on peak amounts and coverage of significant ice, the somewhat growing model signal for a wide swath of heavy freezing rain is likely foreboding of a swath of nasty ice somewhere given the synoptic setup. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted Friday at 05:24 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:24 AM 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Yea I don’t know where all of our Indy posters went but 2 years ago this thread would be bonkers I’m too cautious to get overly excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Friday at 05:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:41 AM The deterministic/op Euro has actually shown a clear south and drier trend from 12z to 18z to 00z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Euro vs GFS it looks like, who’s gonna win out? (it’ll be the Euro unfortunately) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Friday at 05:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:56 AM 5 minutes ago, CIllinoisSnow said: Euro vs GFS it looks like, who’s gonna win out? (it’ll be the Euro unfortunately) Euro/GDPS/UKIE vs. GFS/ICON. Pick your team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted Friday at 05:59 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:59 AM Euro is a major ice storm from KS into the Ohio Valley. Moderate-strong winds, moderate precip rates, a deep warm layer aloft, and temperatures significantly colder than freezing at the surface are trouble. It looks to me like moisture for the cold conveyor belt gets robbed by convection in the Southeast, which would lead me to believe that the GFS is probably overdone on QPF further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted Friday at 06:03 AM Share Posted Friday at 06:03 AM 19 minutes ago, CIllinoisSnow said: Euro vs GFS it looks like, who’s gonna win out? (it’ll be the Euro unfortunately) Euro has been straight dogshit for winter storms in our area for 2+ years. Not saying the GFS verbatim, but I would take a very pessimistic view on the euro 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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