January 5-6th Winter Storm

[Stebo]

7 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Prayers up that the north trend continues

It all depends on a couple of things, the confluence in the east, the upper low north of the state and how strong/much the high at the surface presses in. Any of those ending up weaker allows for this to come north.

[dmc76]

I’ll take 12 hours of pixie dust that accumulates 2” at this point. lol 

[Stevo6899]

36 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

I’ll take 12 hours of pixie dust that accumulates 2” at this point. lol 

How many times have you said that the past 5 years?

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

It all depends on a couple of things, the confluence in the east, the upper low north of the state and how strong/much the high at the surface presses in. Any of those ending up weaker allows for this to come north.

We've seen systems come some 500 miles north/south in the last 24-48hrs so who knows. Ukmet has come south some so gonna take some big changes to get alot of us in the game.

[buckeye]

looking at the 84 rgem, I bet canadian comes further north and stronger.   Thinking we might see that trend  start today.  Confluence in the northeast moving futher east and stronger storm out west.  Heads up northern OH/southern MI 

[Chinook]

come on, ice storm!

[Chinook]

high latitude blocking to start the new year

[hawkeye_wx]

Those of us in the I-80 corridor really needed the big southeast Canada gyre to lift out, but it just isn't.  It remains parked as the storm approaches, continuing the wnw flow across the lakes region.

[ChiTownSnow]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Those of us in the I-80 corridor really needed the big southeast Canada gyre to lift out, but it just isn't.  It remains parked as the storm approaches, continuing the wnw flow across the lakes region.

Even so.. trend over last 2-3 runs seem positive.  Better than 24-36 hours ago anyway

Edit-  Nam continues to show it lifting out sooner and weaker .  As well as Northern energy entering pac West a bit north of gfs

[Chicago916]

Maybe at least a miss South will lead to some significant lake effect snow in NE IL as seen on in the Euro already and now seen on the Canadian model? Would be a nice consolation prize. Hate to have to rely on that though.

[A-L-E-K]

Riding Canadian fantasy les, the usual

[DocATL]

Maybe at least a miss South will lead to some significant lake effect snow in NE IL as seen on in the Euro already and now seen on the Canadian model? Would be a nice consolation prize. Hate to have to rely on that though.

Sharp cutoff. Burbs might get a dusting


.

[Chicago916]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Riding Canadian fantasy les, the usual

It's the only way to get double digits in the city these days. The lake taketh, but rarely giveth.

[DocATL]

A foot in central GA? Toss this gfs run.


.

[cyclone77]

Ofc would love a dog but I'll take a long duration pixie fest at this point.  

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Ofc would love a dog but I'll take a long duration pixie fest at this point.  

Yup. It's ridiculous that it has to even be said, but some have the mindset that you can only choose one or the other. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

How many times have you said that the past 5 years?

We've had plenty of decent snowstorms the last 5 years, even if the winter overall was mild. This season has been nothing but grinding out dusting to 1.5" snowfalls so far. Fortunately it's very early still. But I'm dying for a good plowable snowfall.

[ChiTownSnow]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We've had plenty of decent snowstorms the last 5 years, even if the winter overall was mild. This season has been nothing but grinding out dusting to 1.5" snowfalls so far. Fortunately it's very early still. But I'm dying for a good plowable snowfall.

6 more weeks of winter Imby.  Not exactly very early 

And I'm generally a pretty optimistic guy

[ChiTownSnow]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

come on, ice storm!

Those ensembles look 10x better than yesterday 

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

6 more weeks of winter Imby.  Not exactly very early 

I was talking about getting a good snowstorm. If you think Chicago's window for a big snowstorm ends in mid February, I have some stuff to sell you . Easily 3 more months of good snowstorm potential, but by late Feb the snowcover lovers hopes rapidly fade. 

[Malacka11]

7 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Those ensembles look 10x better than yesterday 

06z did, 12z is a couple steps back again. One can hope tho for sure

[sbnwx85]

Looking like an I-72 special.

[ChiTownSnow]

9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was talking about getting a good snowstorm. If you think Chicago's window for a big snowstorm ends in mid February, I have some stuff to sell you . Easily 3 more months of good snowstorm potential, but by late Feb the snowcover lovers hopes rapidly fade. 

That window is rather small

[Stevo6899]

38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We've had plenty of decent snowstorms the last 5 years, even if the winter overall was mild. This season has been nothing but grinding out dusting to 1.5" snowfalls so far. Fortunately it's very early still. But I'm dying for a good plowable snowfall.

Yea, definitly not plenty but nonetheless still time left. At this point, I'll take anything over 3 inches, even if it takes 10 hours. I think my neighbor said he's used his snowblower like twice in the last 5 years.  I suppose we were due for some regression.

 

12z ukmet a good ways south and weaker from yesterday's 12z run.

[hawkeye_wx]

12z Euro... There is pretty good consensus with four days to go.  The storm peaks in northern Missouri, then slowly fades as it heads east or even ese into the less favorable upper flow.  That big dry pocket over MN/IA/WI/nIL makes me sad.  As the storm organizes in Kansas, that would typically be very favorable for Iowa.

[michsnowfreak]

17 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea, definitly not plenty but nonetheless still time left. At this point, I'll take anything over 3 inches, even if it takes 10 hours. I think my neighbor said he's used his snowblower like twice in the last 5 years.  I suppose we were due for some regression.

 

12z ukmet a good ways south and weaker from yesterday's 12z run.

Definitely due for regression. But we still better get a damn 3+ snowfall. I never go by the "I've used my snowblower" line, because everyone's different with that. Some use it for an inch, others only for the biggest storms. We've had 7 storms of 6+ the last 5 years. But none last year.

[Baum]

like where i sit at this distance.

[Malacka11]

Just now, Baum said:

like where i sit at this distance.

I'm so glad I'm not the only one ❤️ 

[CoachLB]

looking turd tastic

[mimillman]

Not every day you see KC get 20”