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1/3 Snow Squall Potential


NorthArlington101
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40 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Aren't temperatures going to be quite warm when the squalls go through? I mean, maybe some of the favored northern areas are stuck in the mid 30's and it will snow hard enough to overcome the temp and stick to the roads, but my temp is forecasted to be in the upper 30's tomorrow afternoon. It would have to snow ridiculously hard for awhile to have any chance of sticking in those temps.

Temps ahead of the trough/front will be pretty mild (u30-l40s), but given the very cold temps aloft and the borderline convective setup right along the boundary, I would expect temps to drop pretty quickly as precip arrives. Convective overturning is in play here.

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29 minutes ago, katabatic said:

I live here, so I'll post pictures if they are worth folks' time. I am a bit dubious about the forecast, however - they have really struggled this year. The day of our blizzard warning the sun was out most of the day and ended up with only a few inches. The WSW that just expired this morning produced only 2 inches once again county-wide (and that may be a bit generous). So, hopefully the forecast for 6-10 tomorrow verifies. Folks at Wisp have been really frustrated by the forecast misses.

Kinda wish Garrett Co would get transferred back to whatever office had them before LWX. Feel like they don't really know the micro-climate well. 

I'm headed up Saturday morning because I didn't want to risk driving in wind blown snow Friday night. Who knows how much we will have on the ground by then, hopefully more than a dusting! At least its cold and Wisp seems to have finally fixed all their snowmaking issues. Did you say you knew someone that worked up there? I would love to buy a beer and get the inside scoop of whats going on at the resort. 

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5 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Kinda wish Garrett Co would get transferred back to whatever office had them before LWX. Feel like they don't really know the micro-climate well. 

I'm headed up Saturday morning because I didn't want to risk driving in wind blown snow Friday night. Who knows how much we will have on the ground by then, hopefully more than a dusting! At least its cold and Wisp seems to have finally fixed all their snowmaking issues. Did you say you knew someone that worked up there? I would love to buy a beer and get the inside scoop of whats going on at the resort. 

PIT used to cover Garrett, I prefer LWX over PIT but think CRW does the best for the highlands for upslope events.  I check all three to compare, they've been pretty close on all the events so far this year.

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10 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Kinda wish Garrett Co would get transferred back to whatever office had them before LWX. Feel like they don't really know the micro-climate well. 

I'm headed up Saturday morning because I didn't want to risk driving in wind blown snow Friday night. Who knows how much we will have on the ground by then, hopefully more than a dusting! At least its cold and Wisp seems to have finally fixed all their snowmaking issues. Did you say you knew someone that worked up there? I would love to buy a beer and get the inside scoop of whats going on at the resort. 

Hey there! Yes, I do - my husband works at Wisp. He's a ski lift operator during the winter season. And before LWX, we were with Pittsburgh (and to this day, still part of the overall Pittsburgh media market). I have a tremendous amount of respect for Mets in general and LWX in particular, but they really struggle with local forecasts here. 

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1 hour ago, Imgoinhungry said:


Yea. I doubt it. Just not sure youd want buses full of elementary school kids driving in snow squalls.

Lots of bball games tomorrow night that could be impacted as well.


.

Yep.  First night back.  I have JV and Varsity in Frederick tomorrow night.  Hopefully we can get them in because this month is packed and rescheduling is going to be a mess. 

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23 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Kinda wish Garrett Co would get transferred back to whatever office had them before LWX. Feel like they don't really know the micro-climate well. 

I'm headed up Saturday morning because I didn't want to risk driving in wind blown snow Friday night. Who knows how much we will have on the ground by then, hopefully more than a dusting! At least its cold and Wisp seems to have finally fixed all their snowmaking issues. Did you say you knew someone that worked up there? I would love to buy a beer and get the inside scoop of whats going on at the resort. 

feel like that whole region should be NWS Pittsburgh.

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24 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Temps ahead of the trough/front will be pretty mild (u30-l40s), but given the very cold temps aloft and the borderline convective setup right along the boundary, I would expect temps to drop pretty quickly as precip arrives. Convective overturning is in play here.

Spot on.   The NAM Nest simulated reflectivity has what's basically a thin squall line for all areas north of the DC Beltway in the mid to late afternoon.    There is even some small sfc-based CAPE in the soundings.    It will start as light rain but quickly turn into a burst of snow.   My guess is that it whitens the ground in any places that get the higher reflectivity values.   Whether it sticks around when it ends will be determined by how quickly the arctic air arrives.    For those along the MD/PA border, there is a clear signal for a longer period of snow, so the potential for 1-2" isn't fantasy.

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30 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Hey there! Yes, I do - my husband works at Wisp. He's a ski lift operator during the winter season. And before LWX, we were with Pittsburgh (and to this day, still part of the overall Pittsburgh media market). I have a tremendous amount of respect for Mets in general and LWX in particular, but they really struggle with local forecasts here. 

Well tell him thanks! I know its not an easy job and he probably deals with a bunch of pain in the butt fools daily. 

The point n clicks vary but seem highest up in McHenry. JonJon land looks to cash in the most. As long as there is enough for the kids to sled a bit and throw some snowballs I will be happy.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow, WWA for me too.  I'm skeptical I see anything more than a quick dusting.  

 

As for schools, tomorrow is giving "all after school activities are cancelled" and then it snows with nothing accumulating on the road for 10 minutes around 530pm.  

 

 With the timing now appearing earlier, I think that may have no choice but to close schools early, even with the impacts of the event being uncertain.

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