Terrapinwx Posted Wednesday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:34 PM can you show snow totals just because?The run ends as the precip moves in, so totals won’t show anything. Extrapolate the HRRR at your own risk but I do like that it shows the possibility of more than just a quick burst . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted Wednesday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:35 PM A heavy squall before heading to AZ would be nice, would at least make me feel like I did not totally miss out if we get something bigger in the week to come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Wednesday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:20 PM GFS finally on board 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 11:19 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 11:19 PM EURO brings the precip in before temps crash enough.RA/SN mix, snow where it’s heavier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Wednesday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:43 PM Based on the freak out level going on in the main thread, I'm pushing all my chips in on this one to get me my best snow in the next 7 days. 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Thursday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:38 AM 2 hours ago, clskinsfan said: GFS finally on board Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Thursday at 01:47 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:47 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 01:52 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:52 AM Northern peeps. 18z Ukie!!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Thursday at 02:04 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:04 AM 0z Hrr has 1" for me.. a nice 5-6 hour snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Thursday at 02:08 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:08 AM 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Northern peeps. 18z Ukie!!!! Close up view 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:10 AM 1 minute ago, mappy said: Close up view Post deck pics. yall got this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 02:11 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 02:11 AM Just now, stormtracker said: Post deck pics. yall got this Don’t give up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Thursday at 02:15 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:15 AM 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Don’t give up North trend. It is undefeated 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 02:32 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 02:32 AM 15 minutes ago, H2O said: North trend. It is undefeated True. Big problem here too is a “4 hour earlier trend.” This coming through at 3pm vs 7pm matters near the metro, annoyingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Thursday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:03 AM I'm hesitant to buy the HRRR area of a stratiform shield. And I'm tossing anything that isn't a hi-res model, as this is a set up with a couple of bands of showers turning to snow squalls along the cold front, driven by dynamics and surface convergence, and enhanced by some steep low-level lapse rates. The NAM Nest simulation certainly looks plausible: 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Thursday at 03:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:07 AM Just now, high risk said: I'm hesitant to buy the HRRR area of a stratiform shield. And I'm tossing anything that isn't a hi-res model, as this is a set up with a couple of bands of showers turning to snow squalls along the cold front, driven by dynamics and surface convergence, and enhanced by some steep low-level lapse rates. The NAM Nest simulation certainly looks plausible: I was parsing through DESI earlier and looking at the 1D plots and noticed a small SBCAPE signature over my hood so I took a spatial look. There will be some sneaky good snow shower/squall activity with this one. I wouldn’t be surprised if areas north of I-70 grabbed a quick 0.5-1” with this type of setup. I think further south will be tougher for good accums, but flakes will likely fly anyways to give that winter feel in the air. Hopefully people enjoyed the milder temps recently. The bottom drops out soon and it won’t be coming back anytime the next 10-14 days, maybe longer. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 03:51 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 03:51 AM GFS fairly consistent with where the globals/some of the HI-RES are placing the best squall. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Thursday at 08:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 08:38 AM If I got 3” Friday I’d s*it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 09:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 09:35 AM Hints of a little enhanced lift on the west side of the developing offshore low via an inverted trough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Thursday at 09:59 AM Share Posted Thursday at 09:59 AM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted Thursday at 11:41 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:41 AM Not to be a negative nancy but aren't temps going to be an issue? I don't see stickage middle of the day with temps in the mid to upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Thursday at 11:47 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:47 AM 5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Not to be a negative nancy but aren't temps going to be an issue? I don't see stickage middle of the day with temps in the mid to upper 30's. Temps likely run a bit warm, but I’d be paying more attention to timing due to the friday PM commute 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Thursday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:46 PM What time is the squall line going to get through dc metro area tomorrow?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Thursday at 12:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:48 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted Thursday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:54 PM 5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: What time is the squall line going to get through dc metro area tomorrow? . As of this morning, 3k NAM has it hitting the 95 corridor in the evening after dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Thursday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:41 PM @nj2va@IronTy anyone headed up to deep creek the next few days? Tonight into Saturday looks pretty primed for 6-10” with the clipper energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted Thursday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:33 PM Both nams still on board with some type of snow event for around 95 then moving SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Thursday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:23 PM 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: @nj2va@IronTy anyone headed up to deep creek the next few days? Tonight into Saturday looks pretty primed for 6-10” with the clipper energy We were up there for Christmas so unfortunately I won't be there this week. I'll be up there in a couple weeks to do a construction inspection so hopefully they'll still have some snow to snowshoe around the property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:47 PM Gfs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025010212&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 05:23 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 05:23 PM You can see where the EURO puts the squalls/showers. Unfortunately it’s around 4pm as opposed to 7pm, so verbatim more rainy near DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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