Terrapinwx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 can you show snow totals just because?The run ends as the precip moves in, so totals won’t show anything. Extrapolate the HRRR at your own risk but I do like that it shows the possibility of more than just a quick burst . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 A heavy squall before heading to AZ would be nice, would at least make me feel like I did not totally miss out if we get something bigger in the week to come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 GFS finally on board 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 EURO brings the precip in before temps crash enough.RA/SN mix, snow where it’s heavier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Based on the freak out level going on in the main thread, I'm pushing all my chips in on this one to get me my best snow in the next 7 days. 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, clskinsfan said: GFS finally on board Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Northern peeps. 18z Ukie!!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 0z Hrr has 1" for me.. a nice 5-6 hour snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Northern peeps. 18z Ukie!!!! Close up view 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, mappy said: Close up view Post deck pics. yall got this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, stormtracker said: Post deck pics. yall got this Don’t give up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Don’t give up North trend. It is undefeated 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, H2O said: North trend. It is undefeated True. Big problem here too is a “4 hour earlier trend.” This coming through at 3pm vs 7pm matters near the metro, annoyingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I'm hesitant to buy the HRRR area of a stratiform shield. And I'm tossing anything that isn't a hi-res model, as this is a set up with a couple of bands of showers turning to snow squalls along the cold front, driven by dynamics and surface convergence, and enhanced by some steep low-level lapse rates. The NAM Nest simulation certainly looks plausible: 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, high risk said: I'm hesitant to buy the HRRR area of a stratiform shield. And I'm tossing anything that isn't a hi-res model, as this is a set up with a couple of bands of showers turning to snow squalls along the cold front, driven by dynamics and surface convergence, and enhanced by some steep low-level lapse rates. The NAM Nest simulation certainly looks plausible: I was parsing through DESI earlier and looking at the 1D plots and noticed a small SBCAPE signature over my hood so I took a spatial look. There will be some sneaky good snow shower/squall activity with this one. I wouldn’t be surprised if areas north of I-70 grabbed a quick 0.5-1” with this type of setup. I think further south will be tougher for good accums, but flakes will likely fly anyways to give that winter feel in the air. Hopefully people enjoyed the milder temps recently. The bottom drops out soon and it won’t be coming back anytime the next 10-14 days, maybe longer. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 GFS fairly consistent with where the globals/some of the HI-RES are placing the best squall. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 If I got 3” Friday I’d s*it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Hints of a little enhanced lift on the west side of the developing offshore low via an inverted trough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Not to be a negative nancy but aren't temps going to be an issue? I don't see stickage middle of the day with temps in the mid to upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Not to be a negative nancy but aren't temps going to be an issue? I don't see stickage middle of the day with temps in the mid to upper 30's. Temps likely run a bit warm, but I’d be paying more attention to timing due to the friday PM commute 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 What time is the squall line going to get through dc metro area tomorrow?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: What time is the squall line going to get through dc metro area tomorrow? . As of this morning, 3k NAM has it hitting the 95 corridor in the evening after dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 @nj2va@IronTy anyone headed up to deep creek the next few days? Tonight into Saturday looks pretty primed for 6-10” with the clipper energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Both nams still on board with some type of snow event for around 95 then moving SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: @nj2va@IronTy anyone headed up to deep creek the next few days? Tonight into Saturday looks pretty primed for 6-10” with the clipper energy We were up there for Christmas so unfortunately I won't be there this week. I'll be up there in a couple weeks to do a construction inspection so hopefully they'll still have some snow to snowshoe around the property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gfs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025010212&fh=36&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 You can see where the EURO puts the squalls/showers. Unfortunately it’s around 4pm as opposed to 7pm, so verbatim more rainy near DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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