NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 You know what, F&#% it. This could be our best shot at snow over the next two weeks for all we know. Make a thread or die trying - this is out of the M/LR anyway. CMC, GFS, and ICON going the right way at 00z. Ens slowly but steadily been trending better on all suites. 00z CMC has been the best run in a while so it will kick us off. Good luck! @mods - feel free to rename to whatever feels appropriate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 It could be the 1-3" we saw on 1/20/16. Similar kinda thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeg0305 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I applaud your effort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 GEFS does show a bit of a signal for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 When I am the only one browsing the thread, it’s a bad sign. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 What idiot made this thread? Jokes aside - not an inspiring 6z. Couldn’t carry the momentum. We’ll see what real models (the NAM) bring as this enters that range today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We’ll see what real models (the NAM) Never a good sign when that’s our failsafe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Either way I’m just here for flurries and that still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Let's reel this appetizer in. Mood flakes for everyone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Someone may see a dusting east of the mountains from this one. Not holding my breath for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 GFS gives us some snow Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, rjvanals said: GFS gives us some snow Friday night huge! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: huge! I'll take it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Anecdotally, and probably me only remembering the hits, but I feel like often guidance strips all the precip off these weak waves in the mountains in the mid range. Then in the short range you see that they don’t totally Peter out. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 UKIE brings the system through as a snow squall, lol. We'd buy - unless this messes up 1/6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: UKIE brings the system through as a snow squall, lol. We'd buy - unless this messes up 1/6. I’m down on this system since if we get any snow it’ll help push the confluence to far south screwing up both much higher upside chances next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 12z EURO dusts everyone. Kinda UKIE/RGEM like where individual snow showers might give people something slant-stickabble. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 12z EURO dusts everyone. Kinda UKIE/RGEM like where individual snow showers might give people something slant-stickabble. Wonder if we really want this "event" to trend our way considering if it bombs out too far east we possibly get a more GFS type Jan 6th outcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 That said the GEFS are now up to a solid .4 areawide mean which isn't entirely terrible, and there are no real outliers giving 4+ inches to throw off the mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 EPS healthier. Just about the same mean areawide as the GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I’m all for a nice appetizer and dusting and models look like it’s a possibility. But could you imagine this thread if this was the only show in town and forecasted 60s for next week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Wouldn't sleep on this one. Nice trop fold, very weakly stable to moist neutral atmosphere as it moves in, strong digging mid-level (500mb) jet streak, and a favorable position of mid/upper features. Lack of decent low-level/surface reflection and a relatively dry boundary layer due to weak return flow are cons. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Got nam'd (relatively) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, peribonca said: Got nam'd (relatively) A widespread C-1" would bring much joy! Fully endorse. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: A widespread C-1" would bring much joy! Fully endorse. Going to be funny when this ramps up inside 48hrs and ends up giving us like 1-3” across the area. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Icon also just ramped it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 12z vs 18z keep on jucin! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 Don’t thunderstorms precede snowstorms? Feel like I’ve heard something like that somewhere… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 GFS keeps up the C-1" theme. Would lock in .5" right now if I could. Surface temps need a little work close to the metro, though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Boundary layer is torched so more snow tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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