NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:34 PM 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow ECMWF. significant change with the confluence 18Z run - lets see what happens at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:36 PM 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro ! Higher snow ratios with this storm also ?? Thoughts anyone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:37 PM 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Higher snow ratios with this storm also ?? Yes sir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted Wednesday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:38 PM plsplspls let this be the beginning of a change that the euro sniffs out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Wednesday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:38 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Yes sir Don’t buy into it metfan. The models are gonna go back and forth. If this trend continues New England will have it next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Wednesday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:39 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Yes sir Impressive BUT need consistency run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:41 PM If the euro is correct snow would start around 12am Monday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:43 PM This is all about the TPV relaxing. It wants to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:45 PM 6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Don’t buy into it metfan. The models are gonna go back and forth. If this trend continues New England will have it next SWFE always come north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 11:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:46 PM 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If the euro is correct snow would start around 12am Monday morning Eps north also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 11:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:50 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 11:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:50 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps north also Yup. More amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:51 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:52 PM 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yup. More amped Off hour run but the idv are way north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Wednesday at 11:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:53 PM Big jump on the eps with the snow mean for nyc. 3 nyc 5 phl 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Wednesday at 11:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:57 PM EPS with a huge shift. much less confluence and a stronger vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:07 AM Nice! Let's hope this is the start of a trend towards at least some snow for our area (and maybe more than a few inches) - and with temps in the 20s, melting/accumulation wouldn't be an issue, plus we might do better than 10:1, if we can get good dendritic growth (which is not a factor in the Kuchera algorithm, which is why I don't post those maps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:09 AM trend with the confluence is clear as day on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Thursday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:09 AM 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Nice! Let's hope this is the start of a trend towards at least some snow for our area (and maybe more than a few inches) - and with temps in the 20s, melting/accumulation wouldn't be an issue, plus we might do better than 10:1, if we can get good dendritic growth (which is not a factor in the Kuchera algorithm, which is why I don't post those maps). I will gladly take the 2” this map gives me don’t get me wrong. I do miss chasing big blockbuster blizzards we were spoiled with though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 12:15 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:15 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Thursday at 12:17 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:17 AM Couple more bumps and we in bidness 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Thursday at 12:24 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:24 AM 49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 18Z run - lets see what happens at 0Z There's nothing wrong with 18z runs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted Thursday at 12:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:27 AM Not saying we are going to bullseye this one, and I know I’m in a better spot on the Jersey Shore, but I was kind of surprised people were writing this one off the last day or so. People were acting like it was a 36 hour prog. This thing is still day four or five away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 12:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:27 AM 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Big jump on the eps with the snow mean for nyc. 3 nyc 5 phl Yep, big jump in snowfall on the EPS for areas north of DC-Cape May, so this wouldn't appear to be an Op outlier (not like that nutty 12Z GFS run showing 12"+ in the deep south today, while the GEFS showed barely nada). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Thursday at 12:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:27 AM Euro could be a blip run but how everyone was dead set on a suppressed outcome when these things almost always come north was strange to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:34 AM 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro could be a blip run but how everyone was dead set on a suppressed outcome when these things almost always come north was strange to me. The confluence is weakening on this run and S/W is strengthening, that's why it bumped north. Hopefully the trend keeps up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Thursday at 12:35 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 12:35 AM 57 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Higher snow ratios with this storm also ?? Thoughts anyone ? Even the 18z virtually dry GFS at LGA is showing banding along I80 and decent dendrite growth in the SGZ Monday. With the EPS so much further north, that is a relief. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted Thursday at 12:36 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:36 AM What is it that the EPS is seeing at 18z that the 18z GEFS is not? There’s something in the data stream that it’s parsing out that the other models aren’t (yet?). I get the part with the confluence however there seems to be more to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Thursday at 12:51 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:51 AM Ok I’ve seen enough. The trend is the friend. It’s gonna snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 12:56 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:56 AM i would urge caution at this point given that it’s just one run with a jump like this but the 12z GEPS also shot north and the ICON had a similar evolution with a lobe of the TPV tilting the trough 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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