Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[HeadInTheClouds]

It will be cold and dry for 2-3 weeks and then it will rain. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It will be cold and dry for 2-3 weeks and then it will rain. 

That's certainly possible but I still like our chance to see something.  Also the second threat is not close to dead yet.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

That's certainly possible but I still like our chance to see something.  Also the second threat is not close to dead yet.  

I was joking but I wouldn't be surprised by anything. 

 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's certainly possible but I still like our chance to see something.  Also the second threat is not close to dead yet.  

While possible. Seeing zero precip for 2 weeks seems unlikely 

[MJO812]

Euro is a tick north

[NEG NAO]

Euro doesn't make much sense over a 6 hour period - weakening and moving off the coast too fast - also the LP is slightly stronger then previous runs expanding the precip shield further north into the confluence - basisically IMO if this storm was stronger it would be able to battle the confluence better and more overrunning too

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Euro doesn't make much sense over a 6 hour period - weakening and moving off the coast too fast - also the LP is slightly stronger then previous runs expanding the precip shield further north into the confluence - basisically IMO if this storm was stronger it would be able to battle the confluence better and more overrunning too

I'd rather be in Philly or Richmond right now.  DC you just know its moving one way or another given we are still 120 hours or more out.

[RU848789]

Interesting that the NBM has bumped up snowfall a bit at 13Z vs. previous runs, especially along/S of 78, when none of the major globals are showing anywhere near that amount of snow (just small upticks on the Euro, especially N of 276/195.  I know many more models go into the NBM, but I'll admit I'm puzzled.  

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting that the NBM has bumped up snowfall a bit at 13Z vs. previous runs, especially along/S of 78, when none of the major globals are showing anywhere near that amount of snow (just small upticks on the Euro, especially N of 276/195.  I know many more models go into the NBM, but I'll admit I'm puzzled.  

I think Walt might have a list of the models that go into the NBM Solution ? Found this"

National Blend of Models - MDL - Virtual Lab

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting that the NBM has bumped up snowfall a bit at 13Z vs. previous runs, especially along/S of 78, when none of the major globals are showing anywhere near that amount of snow (just small upticks on the Euro, especially N of 276/195.  I know many more models go into the NBM, but I'll admit I'm puzzled.  

On a side note that looks like pretty intense snow squalls in The lakes region

[mikem81]

I dont think there will be more clarity on this until tomorrow afternoon when the energy is closer to the NW coast and the LP block starts to form in a certain spot in SE canada

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think Walt might have a list of the models that go into the NBM Solution ? Found this"

National Blend of Models - MDL - Virtual Lab

Yes, we've both posted the NBM model inputs before, but as far as I know, many of those models don't run out 120+ hours and there are some I don't have access to and the ones I do aren't showing that much snow through 1/6.  So still puzzled.  

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Yes, we've both posted the NBM model inputs before, but as far as I know, many of those models don't run out 120+ hours and there are some I don't have access to and the ones I do aren't showing that much snow through 1/6.  So still puzzled.  

Thanks I found this viewer from Penn State that runs the NBM through 120 hours

NBM Viewer

[winterwx21]

37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'd rather be in Philly or Richmond right now.  DC you just know its moving one way or another given we are still 120 hours or more out.

Hopefully we can get enough of a north bump that it's very good for Philly. If that's the case we'd at least have a decent chance of getting a few inches up here. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is a tick north

A tick more painful watching the snow inch ever closer as the dry air eats it up for a snack. 

[mikem81]

Typically SWFE tend to amp up as they get closer. We actually fear this as it means mix to rain for our area and snow for New England. This is a rare event where we are hoping for the historic trend to occur and amp this just enough to get some good precipitation into our area with little fear precipitation type issues

[nycwinter]

i rather have dry and cold rather then cold and wet..

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i rather have dry and cold rather then cold and wet..

I'll take warm/dry during winter if it's not going to snow

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll take warm/dry during winter if it's not going to snow

move to southern florida then..

[wdrag]

NBM:  Probably ticked up with the 12z GEPS increasing qpf in NJ.  Still waffling...  just want to stay in the game on the northern fringe.  Then we'll see if we can get a bit of dendrite growth (slight banding near the confluence zone) to counter dry low lvl air on the north wind (evaporation lowest 5k).  JMA also looking decent for our area... before it swiftly goes seaward Tuesday. 

 Area in doubt for measurable is probably somewhere along or just north of I84.   

Agree that this is probably set in stone tomorrow since more and more 5H consensus is developing. 

I'll check back tomorrow morning at 7 or 8, hopefully we're still in the game.  NAEFS says it snows NYC 1/4-1".  We'll see by nightfall the 6th. 

[RU848789]

48 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NBM:  Probably ticked up with the 12z GEPS increasing qpf in NJ.  Still waffling...  just want to stay in the game on the northern fringe.  Then we'll see if we can get a bit of dendrite growth (slight banding near the confluence zone) to counter dry low lvl air on the north wind (evaporation lowest 5k).  JMA also looking decent for our area... before it swiftly goes seaward Tuesday. 

 Area in doubt for measurable is probably somewhere along or just north of I84.   

Agree that this is probably set in stone tomorrow since more and more 5H consensus is developing. 

I'll check back tomorrow morning at 7 or 8, hopefully we're still in the game.  NAEFS says it snows NYC 1/4-1".  We'll see by nightfall the 6th. 

Good call, although it's interesting to see how different the GEPS is vs. the Op CMC at 12Z.  The Op having so little precip must be a dry outlier for the ensemble mean to be so much wetter/snowier.  

 

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Good call, although it's interesting to see how different the GEPS is vs. the Op CMC at 12Z.  The Op having so little precip must be a dry outlier for the ensemble mean to be so much wetter/snowier.  

 

Take a look at the 18Z GFS OP Crazy storm track bouncing around all over the place down south - complete nonsense...

[MJO812]

18z gefs vs 12z gefs

[mob1]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z gefs vs 12z gefs

The trend for a faster storm and less wave spacing is concerning. It's not so much the location of the low, it's more that it completely deamplifies as it approaches out longitude and there's nothing but spotty snow showers left (if that). 

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Take a look at the 18Z GFS OP Crazy storm track bouncing around all over the place down south - complete nonsense...

More lightning strikes than flakes through 1/10? 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The trend for a faster storm and less wave spacing is concerning. It's not so much the location of the low, it's more that it completely deamplifies as it approaches out longitude and there's nothing but spotty snow showers left (if that). 

its obvious the models are completely confused right now with no idea how to go up against the confluence ..........once we get to the weekend they will fiqure it out with better data input

[RU848789]

Exhibit #877 on why putting any stock in Op models beyond 6-7 days is fruitless, as the 18Z GFS comes back to reality for SE US snow vs. 12Z and why ensembles are the way to go.  Obviously, the 12Z GFS was an outlier solution for SE snow given that probably every other member had little to no snow.  While the ~10 day Op runs of the Euro/GFS for the 1/10-11 window haven't looked great for our area the past few Op runs, we're still ridiculously far out, so let's see how it plays out.  And hope for an inch or two on 1/6.  

 

[MJO812]

Euro !

[brooklynwx99]

wow ECMWF. significant change with the confluence

[Allsnow]

Euro with a huge jump north