Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

EPS is not fine BUT we are not even sure if the models are measuring the confluence correctly could easily ease up a bit before showtime...allowing a shift north in the precip field

Is that the confluence causing the snow to dry up before it reaches the coast? Cant be changeover issues lol.

 

[SnoSki14]

DC south could do really well in this pattern. 

[MJO812]

Eps shift north from 0z 

[wdrag]

Happy New Year (I very much hope for all!),  We're still in the game with the waffling models(windshield wiper) and again all primary global models having trended a bit north.  Added the EPS chance for 1" from 06z/1. Also added the 07z/1 NWS BOM by next Wednesday night and the WSSI P for the 6th event... lighter blue hues I think are in for slippery travel.  The darker blue very low probs for minor are northern fringe.  

 

The NAEFS has come north now and am thinking a minimum of 1/4" NYC CP with a concern that this is in pieces for us I80 north.. some on the 6th, some on the 7th, even possibly early 8 as per the 06z/1 GEFS and 00z/1 GEPS hanging onto qpf.

Jan 6-9 I84 itself and northward to I90 seems on the northern fringe of not much snow but still uncertainty on the northern fringe. More in the nw suburbs thread. There is definitely opportunity for hooking some of this northward per the GEFS 5H ensemble members showing a lifting confluence Zone and a number of northern stream members trying to latch onto the VA-MD event. 

Still in the game... never enjoy the roller coaster but I do think this shows the risk of posting threads beyond 7-8 days. 

 

[NEG NAO]

Interpret this anyway you want too.....

[Allsnow]

 

[wdrag]

34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Interpret this anyway you want too.....

Can I add on...this same team added this low 10-30% probably of more than 2" of snow. These dont fit well across NNJ.

The qpf is explicit is not interpreting northern fringe qpf far enough north, yet offers a greater than 10% chc of frozen 1/4" qpf.  I cant see having it both ways...  I think the northern fringe .01 should be have been further N and then that would match the D6 prob of >1/4". 

[Allsnow]

Icon bumped north with the inch line to TTN. 

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon bumped north with the inch line to TTN. 

Plenty of time for things to bump north. That was always the rule in previous storms.

Usually we wanted the snow zone further south days out due to these inevitable north trends. 

[the_other_guy]

This is why you dont get all excited for these storms 10 days out.

Only get the nuts and bolts within 5 days or so…and these nuts and bolts dont look to good for metro area

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Plenty of time for things to bump north. That was always the rule in previous storms.

Usually we wanted the snow zone further south days out due to these inevitable north trends. 

Yeah, I would feel pretty good if I was in snj/phl area 

[North and West]

DC south could do really well in this pattern. 

Good for them. They deserve it. Their climate is not usually conducive to this.


.

[North and West]

Interpret this anyway you want too.....

God hates us.


.

[EastonSN+]

When watching the model runs always look to that lobe to the Northeast if that is further south then the storm will be squashed South. 

[EastonSN+]

[SnoSki14]

CMC bumped north. GFS looked good early on

[Allsnow]

CMC brings some light snow into the area Monday night 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC brings some light snow into the area Monday night 

It wouldn't take much to get a light event up here

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 12Z GFS still south

 

 

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

CMC bumped north. GFS looked good early on

this is probably as good as it will get - models have been more or less consistent for several runs

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 

this is probably as good as it will get - models have been more or less consistent for several runs

Still 5+ days away

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Still 5+ days away

TRue BUT how do you plan on reducing the confluence block ? Need a HP in southeast Canada not a LP.....

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

TRue BUT how do you plan on reducing the confluence block ? Need a HP in southeast Canada not a LP.....

Well I'm not suggesting it's going to trend favorably for us. It could go the other way and end up a southeast storm. But even inside 72 hours model consensus hasn't meant much the past few years

[forkyfork]

hope for convection to give us just enough ridging ahead of the storm to beat the confluence 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hope for convection to give us just enough ridging ahead of the storm to beat the confluence 

Always seems to me when models see raging confluence at D5-8 in a solid -NAO pattern they always overdo it and it inevitably ends up less suppressive as we get closer.  The patterns where the blocking is not as raging and they pick it up late inside D5 its like a never ending congrats southern hemisphere as we get closer like March 2013

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Borrowed from the middle Atlantic forum.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Always seems to me when models see raging confluence at D5-8 in a solid -NAO pattern they always overdo it and it inevitably ends up less suppressive as we get closer.  The patterns where the blocking is not as raging and they pick it up late inside D5 its like a never ending congrats southern hemisphere as we get closer like March 2013

when should the models start picking up on less confluence then first advertised ? Tomorrow , Friday Saturday Sunday ?

[NEG NAO]

Can't make this stuff up - nightmare scenario for us -lol

[ILoveWinter]

If it happens it happens, these past few years have taught me to keep expectations well in check until 2-3 or so days out. Hey, at least we are tracking something that actually has potential! Feels like an eternity since the last time.

[cardinalland]

in the current climate regime i'd definitely rather be staring at suppression city than last week's continental torch. more to work with

[cardinalland]

interestingly model evolution has this storm's energy feeding into the massive trough off newfoundland to create even more confluence and thus to push the next storm even further south