Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Farther north may be due to a larger precip shield than modeled. Not sure it’s moving more northward though?

Surface reports show the virga is real with this one. 

[dseagull]

Beginning to look towards the next threat.  What i would do for 09-10 and 10-11 back to back yearly snow events.  

 

I paid for the entirety of a brand new 2500 HD Diesel and new decks for the other trucks just from plowing those seasons during my holiday and/or leave time. 

[Wild Turkey]

12 minutes ago, dseagull said:

And now brine and salt budgets are abused.   "Use it or lose it," government waste mentality.  It's disgusting.  

Honestly we have a ton of state-level regulations about storage and salt sheds and storm water drainage. No one at the local level *wants* to put down unnecessary salt/brine.

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that middle storm in January also buried central Long Island with up 20 inches of snow.  Some place out there probably got three 20"+ snowstorms in 10-11.

The snowpack that season (10-11) was amazing. N of Sunrise Highway had a 2 foot pack for weeks. The 1/12/11 storm was good in Long Beach, I think there was 8-10” but parts of Suffolk had much more. 

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The snowpack that season (10-11) was amazing. N of Sunrise Highway had a 2 foot pack for weeks. The 1/12/11 storm was good in Long Beach, I think there was 8-10” but parts of Suffolk had much more. 

That winter was awesome. I got 78” in Tarrytown NY

[NorthShoreWx]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

02-03 is right up there too

It's in the top 10

[NorthShoreWx]

30 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Farther north may be due to a larger precip shield than modeled. Not sure it’s moving more northward though?

Roughly the northernmost 50 miles of those radar echos are virga.

[dseagull]

17 minutes ago, Wild Turkey said:

Honestly we have a ton of state-level regulations about storage and salt sheds and storm water drainage. No one at the local level *wants* to put down unnecessary salt/brine.

Couldn't agree more.  It comes from the top. Absolutely.  Its also illogical, which is what eats at me.  Perhaps a discussion for another thread (where we may also discuss the over-use of State-Of-Emergency powers that are apparently now needed to "secure funding" or "allocate resources."

Plenty of us are old enough to remember how efficient we were before new governmental procedures became normalized.  

[dseagull]

We would let the powder fall...

And oddly, it made us work super fast and hard!

[RU848789]

6 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I think you may have mixed up your years; 2010-11 we had three KUs, Boxing Day, then one in Jan that we got 9 from but CT was buried, and another in Jan that delivered 19 inches. And then it was all over for the year. So really, in a La Nina, we're probably actually running out of time already for a big winter. But every year is different.

You are mostly correct as my numbers were wrong.  I actually had about 54" of snow in 2010-11, not 40" and I had 55" in 2009-2010, which is just barely more.  I didn't start keeping a spreadsheet until about 10 years ago, so I was just looking at my weather email archives and missed a couple of decent storms in 10/11 and double counted one in 09/10.  FYI, we had 23" for Boxing Day and 17.5" for 1/26, but also had 8" on 1/11, 3" on 1/20 and a couple of 1-2" events.  I really need to go back and put these old winters in the spreadsheet, lol.  Started doing the winter weather emails for every storm in 2000; was sporadic prior to that, usually just for the bigger ones.  

Below is the link to the NB snowfall history, which is always useful to check against for folks not far from there, like you and me, although note that their "total" column is the annual, not the winter total - nobody cares about the annual, lol, so one has to add up all the monthly rows to get the winter total.  I just emailed them to see if they could address that.  

https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/monthlydata/index.php?stn=286055&elem=snow

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Snowing in Cleveland..snow in nyc in a few hours. The snowline is following i80 or just north across in to the city later. Also a odd disturbance near toronto,might explain why the precip shield is north and still trying to push our way.

 

[wdrag]

 

nw NJ-nePA-Orange County NY and Kinnelon-NYC-LI 9AM-3PM...a dusting to possibly 1.5". We're on the fringe here. The northern part of Sussex County, northern Pike County PA to Lords Valley and Mt Cobb PA on I84 as well as all of Orange County might escape with just some late morning flurries-uncertainty?  my 2c on expectations. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

 

 

nw NJ-nePA-Orange County NY and Kinnelon-NYC-LI 9AM-3PM...a dusting to possibly 1.5". We're on the fringe here. The northern part of Sussex County, northern Pike County PA to Lords Valley and Mt Cobb PA on I84 as well as all of Orange County might escape with just some late morning flurries-uncertainty?  my 2c on expectations. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Always good to see a blooming radar for the i80 corridor,translates well for all of us including the city.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Always good to see a blooming radar for the i80 corridor,translates well for all of us including the city. Also there is going to be some good banding on the northern fringes dunno where those set up either.

 

[Tatamy]

33 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

 

Blooming radar is nice however much of what is seen over PA currently to the north and east of Harrisburg is virga.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

15 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Blooming radar is nice however much of what is seen over PA currently to the north and east of Harrisburg is virga.

Its snowing in harrisburg currently. Virga over southern nj moving nne. Soon enough we will know if virga is shortlived,interestingly the rh around these parts varies from 58% to 68% with varied winds. Some se winds are showing up.

[dseagull]

27 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Blooming radar is nice however much of what is seen over PA currently to the north and east of Harrisburg is virga.

The modeled confluence days ahead of this event was shockingly accurate, and credit should be given where it is earned, regardless of 100 mile jumps with precipitation shield placement.  

 

Just through looking at radar evolution and DP/RH readings, I think we are witnessing what will likely wind up resulting in lower-end totals shifting considerably further south than we expected.  

 

Edit:  But it does appear that the readings are beginning to rise further wsw.  Maybe I spoke to soon about radar artificacts with the virga.   (Just got off the phone with my father in Salem county.  He said the precipitation wall in regards to the radar/virga was short lived.   It is now snowing moderately and all surfaces are instantly seeing accumulating snow.)  As a result, im going to cancel my hunting trip in Salem county, and remain on the coast.  No need to put myself or dog at risk in an area that doesn't treat roads very well, especially when folks are heading out for the morning rush.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

4 minutes ago, dseagull said:

The modeled confluence days ahead of this event was shockingly accurate, and credit should be given where it is earned, regardless of 100 mile jumps with precipitation shield placement.  

 

Just through looking at radar evolution and DP readings, I think we are witnessing what will likely wind up resulting in lower-end totals shifting considerably further south than we expected.

Credit is given,however if it snows where it doesnt show much at all,it would still be a bust. Looking at the radar right now,id say we have a good shot of steady snow for a bit.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

13 minutes ago, dseagull said:

The modeled confluence days ahead of this event was shockingly accurate, and credit should be given where it is earned, regardless of 100 mile jumps with precipitation shield placement.  

 

Just through looking at radar evolution and DP/RH readings, I think we are witnessing what will likely wind up resulting in lower-end totals shifting considerably further south than we expected.  

 

Edit:  But it does appear that the readings are beginning to rise further wsw.  Maybe I spoke to soon about radar artificacts with the virga.   (Just got off the phone with my father in Salem county.  He said the precipitation wall in regards to the radar/virga was short lived.   It is now snowing moderately and all surfaces are instantly seeing accumulating snow.)  As a result, im going to cancel my hunting trip in Salem county, and remain on the coast.  No need to put myself or dog at risk in an area that doesn't treat roads very well, especially when folks are heading out for the morning rush.  

Its incoming amigo ..i literally mentioned the fact that its snowing areas where "virga" was a issue. 

[dseagull]

5 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Its incoming amigo ..i literally mentioned the fact that its snowing areas where "virga" was a issue. 

Lets see how the radar holds up.  Not expecting more than a 4-5 hour duration event here on barnegat bay, but will enjoy the nowcasting.  Watching where the potential band just south of the subsidence sets up should be fun.  

 

Now snowing lightly in Hammonton and Batsto and rapidly filling in NE. 

[RevWarReenactor]

Here in Newark Delaware about 12 miles south of DMB it started snowing at about 4:15am. We got a coating at this point. Snow is light. But it did start snowing as per when the NWS radar showed it.

Even here, we are fringy. I expect at best maybe 4 inches. I just don't think we get the heavy stuff. That is really 40 miles to my south. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, dseagull said:

Lets see how the radar holds up.  Not expecting more than a 4-5 hour duration event here on barnegat bay, but will enjoy the nowcasting.  Watching where the potential band just south of the subsidence sets up should be fun.  

The banding features already showing up look promising even for us up here in the city. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

9 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Lets see how the radar holds up.  Not expecting more than a 4-5 hour duration event here on barnegat bay, but will enjoy the nowcasting.  Watching where the potential band just south of the subsidence sets up should be fun.  

 

Now snowing lightly in Hammonton and Batsto and rapidly filling in NE. 

There is def gonna be a good band at its most northern fringe, where it sets up is anyones guess .

[dseagull]

6 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The banding features already showing up look promising even for us up here in the city. 

Yea, I'm not so sure about that.  I'm expecting about 1.5 down here.  I don't think the 3 inch line will get much further north than a line from Wilmington, DE to Ocean City, NJ.  Just doesn't have enough energy to work with.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, dseagull said:

Yea, I'm not so sure about that.  I'm expecting about 1.5 down here.  I don't think the 3 inch line will get much further north than a line from Wilmington, DE to Ocean City, NJ.  Just doesn't have enough energy to work with.  

Its gonna be close..personally i think you see more then 1.5 but just just me . 

[dseagull]

It's a win.  Always enjoyable learning from the Mets on here with any potential event 5-7 days out.   I like to compare to my weather logs from the past 3 decades working on the water.  Snow is always a bonus during the two months a year when I'm hunting and relaxing instead of working 24/7.  

[dseagull]

And the first flakes are officially flying.  0609

[TJW014]

Flurries have started. Slightly ahead of schedule. Let's see if we can get some light onshore flow later this morning to squeeze in more moisture.

[psv88]

Humidity 79% on the island…not that dry as of now. 

[dseagull]

11 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Flurries have started. Slightly ahead of schedule. Let's see if we can get some light onshore flow later this morning to squeeze in more moisture.