Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And SNE subforum also

You just want their snow lol.

[Volcanic Winter]

I just think perspective is warranted - the geographic spread from Philly to NYC is, in the grand scheme, absolutely minuscule. Zoom a map out and we're all functionally the same dot on a map, far less spread than say SNE to the northern parts of NNE. The northeast overall is a much tinier region than most others, and the subdivisions near our area are even smaller. 

With that said, of course there are climo differences and differences with respect to storms that get one area and not another. But we also tend to share storms as well, especially the big dogs / most memorable storms. These extremely narrow overruning events tend to highlight latitude differences in an extreme way, however.

Rambling a bit, my ultimate point is that we're generally all in the same region just with some specific differences, so I think getting overly pedantic about regional divisions in this area is somewhat futile. We share a lot of the best events with New England even more than the M/A frankly, and there are many storms that clobber SNE but not NNE and vice versa, yet they're still all "one region" on AWX.

Just a bit artificial IMO, the Northeast is not particularly large especially with respect to how the main megaopolis / population centers are clustered. I think we're prone to splitting too many hairs sometimes, at least that's my opinion on it.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I just think perspective is warranted - the geographic spread from Philly to NYC is, in the grand scheme, absolutely minuscule. Zoom a map out and we're all functionally the same dot on a map, far less spread than say SNE to the northern parts of NNE. The northeast overall is a much tinier region than most others, and the subdivisions near our area are even smaller. 

With that said, of course there are climo differences and differences with respect to storms that get one area and not another. But we also tend to share storms as well, especially the big dogs / most memorable storms. These extremely narrow overruning events tend to highlight latitude differences in an extreme way, however.

Rambling a bit, my ultimate point is that we're generally all in the same region just with some specific differences, so I think getting overly pedantic about regional divisions in this area is somewhat futile. We share a lot of the best events with New England even more than the M/A frankly, and there are many storms that clobber SNE but not NNE and vice versa, yet they're still all "one region" on AWX.

Just a bit artificial IMO, the Northeast is not particularly large especially with respect to how the main megaopolis / population centers are clustered.

I think the differences get magnified in la ninas because the storms usually have much smaller areas of heavy snow.  January 1996 is an obvious exception but the big megalopolis blizzards usually happen in el ninos.

[Violentweatherfan]

55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I believe at one time they were combined?

Way back in the old forum 

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the following winter was much better.

How did you do in the last storm in 09-10, when Central Park got 20 inches-- the snowicane? That was the start of three 20 inch snowstorms in 12 months!

2009-2010 was way better than 2010-2011 for me, with about 60" vs. about 40", respectively (similar in NB), whereas for CPK 2010-2011 had 61.9" vs. 51.4" for 2009-2010.  For 2/25/10 we got about 19" here.  

[NorthShoreWx]

3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

6" in Metuchen on 2/6/10.  Here's part of my recap from that one...(I post a lot more elsewhere, lol, but you kind of asked).  

Ok, here's the recap.  Well, I obviously spoke too soon yesterday morning (may need to get myself a "Jump To Conclusions" welcome mat - name that movie), as the next 5-7 hours brought the heaviest snow of the storm to many places including finally punching through the dry/cold air in most of Central Jersey, so that I at least got 6" of snow in Metuchen and everywhere south of Central Jersey kept getting hammered, meeting and even exceeding the amazing accumulation forecasts.  The only area that most of the pros "busted" was NE NJ, NYC (except SI) and LI and anywhere north of there.  However, overall, the forecasts were pretty damn good for a perhaps the most complex snowstorm to hit this area in a long time.  

·        NW NJ (Warren/Sussex/Morris), Bergen, Passaic, Essex and Hudson Counties, NYC, LI, CT and everywhere north of there essentially got shut out, except for an inch or two of snow in the southern parts of a few of those counties.  There was nearly mass weenie suicide on the NYC metro thread on Eastern. 

·        Central Jersey from about 78 down to a line from Trenton to Asbury Park generally got 6-12" of snow, except close to NYC, where most of Union County and most of Staten Island got 2-4" of snow; the larger amounts were to the south, of course. 

·        Interestingly, areas in PA that are at the same latitude as most of Central Jersey (i.e., Bucks, Berks and northern Montgomery Counties), got much more snow (12-18"), as they were further away from the "confluence" of incoming dry/cold air that squashed accumulations in NYC. 

·        Between the line from Trenton to Asbury Park and a line from Philly to Toms River, most locations got from 12" to 20" of snow and from Philly to Toms River and points southward, most locations got 20-30", which is an enormous amount of snow

·        The jackpot for snow accumulation was from about Philly (28") and adjacent South Jersey and the SW suburbs of Philly down through most of DE, the DC-Baltimore area, NE MD and northern VA (and even WV) where 24-36" accumulations were observed. 

·        So how's this for a gradient?  Simply moving down I-95, here's the progression of snowfall: 0.0" in Central Park, 1/2" in Newark, 1" in Elizabeth, 4" in Rahway, 6" in Metuchen, 8" in New Brunswick, 13" in Trenton, 19" in Mount Holly, 28" in Philly and 30" in Baltimore.  Unprecedented, especially the 0-28" over the ~90 miles from NYC to Philly. 

Our 30 minutes of snizzle here was epic.

[Stormlover74]

29 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

2009-2010 was way better than 2010-2011 for me, with about 60" vs. about 40", respectively (similar in NB), whereas for CPK 2010-2011 had 61.9" vs. 51.4" for 2009-2010.  For 2/25/10 we got about 19" here.  

That's surprising such differences. I only had 12 on 2/25/10, 14 on 2/10 and 3.5 on 2/6.

2011-11 I think I had 48 from 12-26 to 1-27

[NorthShoreWx]

35 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

2009-2010 was way better than 2010-2011 for me, with about 60" vs. about 40", respectively (similar in NB), whereas for CPK 2010-2011 had 61.9" vs. 51.4" for 2009-2010.  For 2/25/10 we got about 19" here.  

Total snowfall for 09-10 and 10-11 was similar here, but we had in the vicinity of a 20" snowpack (peak 26") for weeks in 2011.  Until early February 2011 the hits just kept coming one on top of another.

So 2010 was pretty decent, but 2011 gets the nod here.

 

[RU848789]

NWS updated 4 pm snowfall map is out and it cuts snowfall back just a bit vs. the 4 am package which did look a bit overdone, with the 1" line moving from about 80 to just N of 78 with only 1/2"-1" N of 78, including NENJ and NYC/LI. This also means CNJ is in the 1-2" range for the most part with the 2" line a little N of 276/195 and with the 3" line from just north of Philly to about Toms River, while the 4" line goes from just south of Philly to LBI. The forecast is for 4-6" south of there and then 6-8" south of a Wilmington to AC line. Looks like my 1.5" prediction for Metuchen is solid.

No warning/advisory changes for counties along/S of 276/195. And bust potential has decreased, given the decrease in snowfall forecast by the NWS and increases in snowfall from the global models at 12Z and 18Z, so far, such that the globals are much closer to the still a bit snowier mesoscale/CAM models like the RAP/HRRR. However, <1" is still possible for CNJ, as is 2-4" if the storm under/overperforms and there are +/- 1-2" risks for SEPA/SNJ depending on how the storm performs. Almost radar time.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS updated 4 pm snowfall map is out and it cuts snowfall back just a bit vs. the 4 am package which did look a bit overdone, with the 1" line moving from about 80 to just N of 78 with only 1/2"-1" N of 78, including NENJ and NYC/LI. This also means CNJ is in the 1-2" range for the most part with the 2" line a little N of 276/195 and with the 3" line from just north of Philly to about Toms River, while the 4" line goes from just south of Philly to LBI. The forecast is for 4-6" south of there and then 6-8" south of a Wilmington to AC line. Looks like my 1.5" prediction for Metuchen is solid.

No warning/advisory changes for counties along/S of 276/195. And bust potential has decreased, given the decrease in snowfall forecast by the NWS and increases in snowfall from the global models at 12Z and 18Z, so far, such that the globals are much closer to the still a bit snowier mesoscale/CAM models like the RAP/HRRR. However, <1" is still possible for CNJ, as is 2-4" if the storm under/overperforms and there are +/- 1-2" risks for SEPA/SNJ depending on how the storm performs. Almost radar time.

 

This looks much better and more realistic. Specifically the initial amounts down by me seemed too aggressive, I think two inches would be a win here. I personally would take the under on ACY -> due west doing that well, though. I certainly could be wrong. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, when we first started the subforum thing we shared one.

We must have, because I can remember the running "How much for Philly?" joke to this day, though that might go all the way back to the ne.weather days.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Total snowfall for 09-10 and 10-11 was similar here, but we had in the vicinity of a 20" snowpack (peak 26") for weeks in 2011.  Until early February 2011 the hits just kept coming one on top of another.

So 2010 was pretty decent, but 2011 gets the nod here.

 

2010-11 was the second best winter of my life behind 1995-96. That period between 12/25-2/1 was absolutely epic and will likely never be matched again. 

[North and West]

2010-11 was the second best winter of my life behind 1995-96. That period between 12/25-2/1 was absolutely epic and will likely never be matched again. 

1993-94 or 2002-03.


.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

2009-2010 was way better than 2010-2011 for me, with about 60" vs. about 40", respectively (similar in NB), whereas for CPK 2010-2011 had 61.9" vs. 51.4" for 2009-2010.  For 2/25/10 we got about 19" here.  

I think you may have mixed up your years; 2010-11 we had three KUs, Boxing Day, then one in Jan that we got 9 from but CT was buried, and another in Jan that delivered 19 inches. And then it was all over for the year. So really, in a La Nina, we're probably actually running out of time already for a big winter. But every year is different.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

1993-94 or 2002-03.


.

93-94 will always be a standout; we mention it every year and I guess a lot of people here were too young, but what a mess of nasty snow and ice. I mean, ice that was inches thick.....i could not get to my car....fell on my ass twice. You needed crampons and an ice pick....

[NorthShoreWx]

39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

2010-11 was the second best winter of my life behind 1995-96. That period between 12/25-2/1 was absolutely epic and will likely never be matched again. 

Since winters that are great early, great late, have the longest continuous periods without significant thaws, etc. tend not to overlap, the ranking is difficult. My top 4, in chronological order:

77-78

95-96

10-11

14-15

Each was outstanding in ways that the others didn't necessarily display.  The total snowfall for those 4 winters was over 290"

 

[Superstorm]

93-94 will always be a standout; we mention it every year and I guess a lot of people here were too young, but what a mess of nasty snow and ice. I mean, ice that was inches thick.....i could not get to my car....fell on my ass twice. You needed crampons and an ice pick....

That is the “worst” winter I have ever experienced. Lots of snow and ice and extreme cold temperatures. Not sure you will see that in 100 years.


.

[Superstorm]

That is the “worst” winter I have ever experienced. Lots of snow and ice and extreme cold temperatures. Not sure you will see that in 100 years.


.

It is unmatched when you talk about extreme cold and snow/ice.


.

[NorthShoreWx]

9 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

That is the “worst” winter I have ever experienced. Lots of snow and ice and extreme cold temperatures. Not sure you will see that in 100 years.


.

 

30 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

93-94 will always be a standout; we mention it every year and I guess a lot of people here were too young, but what a mess of nasty snow and ice. I mean, ice that was inches thick.....i could not get to my car....fell on my ass twice. You needed crampons and an ice pick....

I give it an honorable mention because of the preponderance of torchy cutters in between cold spells.

But for the epic Ohio Valley blizzard (the cutter of all cutters), 77-78 would be a slam dunk for my top pick here.

[ILoveWinter]

11 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

It is unmatched when you talk about extreme cold and snow/ice.


.

That cold during early to mid January was epic! Snow and ice seemed to be on the ground all winter. Was amazing and agree it won’t be matched for a looong time (if ever with new climo)

[TJW014]

http://cloud.tapatalk.com/s/677b1623a71cc/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_fh17_trend.gif
HRRR with some last minute corrections north

[North and West]

http://cloud.tapatalk.com/s/677b1623a71cc/hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_fh17_trend.gif
HRRR with some last minute corrections north

.

[TJW014]

Precip shield farther north than modeled so far...

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

We must have, because I can remember the running "How much for Philly?" joke to this day, though that might go all the way back to the ne.weather days.

I remember Tombo did the forecasts for both Philly and NYC back then, he would do PBP on model runs.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Since winters that are great early, great late, have the longest continuous periods without significant thaws, etc. tend not to overlap, the ranking is difficult. My top 4, in chronological order:

77-78

95-96

10-11

14-15

Each was outstanding in ways that the others didn't necessarily display.  The total snowfall for those 4 winters was over 290"

 

02-03 is right up there too

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, RU848789 said:

2009-2010 was way better than 2010-2011 for me, with about 60" vs. about 40", respectively (similar in NB), whereas for CPK 2010-2011 had 61.9" vs. 51.4" for 2009-2010.  For 2/25/10 we got about 19" here.  

They were about the same here snowfall total wise both a little over 50" We had back to back great winters like that again in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I think you may have mixed up your years; 2010-11 we had three KUs, Boxing Day, then one in Jan that we got 9 from but CT was buried, and another in Jan that delivered 19 inches. And then it was all over for the year. So really, in a La Nina, we're probably actually running out of time already for a big winter. But every year is different.

that middle storm in January also buried central Long Island with up 20 inches of snow.  Some place out there probably got three 20"+ snowstorms in 10-11.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Superstorm said:

It is unmatched when you talk about extreme cold and snow/ice.


.

and also running out of salt lol.

We were all caught off guard by that winter.

 

[dseagull]

And now brine and salt budgets are abused.   "Use it or lose it," government waste mentality.  It's disgusting.  

[weathermedic]

41 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Precip shield farther north than modeled so far...

Farther north may be due to a larger precip shield than modeled. Not sure it’s moving more northward though?