Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[winterwx21]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I dunno this just feels like one of those situations where the northern edge gets eaten up by the dry air and we get some light snow showers that don't add up to much

Yeah that's certainly possible. It wouldn't be surprise if we just get a light coating, but I'm still very interested in this as long as we have a shot at getting 1 to 2 inches. I'm rooting for the HRRR to be correct but it could be overdoing it. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I dunno this just feels like one of those situations where the northern edge gets eaten up by the dry air and we get some light snow showers that don't add up to much

When you see that ESE truncation to the snow coming out of PA, that's exactly what's happening because the confluence and sinking air is pressing in from the NE. Notice how the snow is moving W to E until it hits central PA. then the confluence presses down and forces it ESE. That's exactly what happens with these-happened in 2/6/10, 1/3/22, a couple of storms in Mar 2014 that hit DC and dried up trying to reach us, Jan 2019-forget the date. Another outcome of that is usually the N gradient is sharper than models show since so much of what tries to advance N ends up as virga. 

[MJO812]

Smells and feels like snow outside

[MANDA]

Going with flurries to perhaps 1/2" here but hard lean toward the flurries.

[weatherpruf]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

When you see that ESE truncation to the snow coming out of PA, that's exactly what's happening because the confluence and sinking air is pressing in from the NE. Notice how the snow is moving W to E until it hits central PA. then the confluence presses down and forces it ESE. That's exactly what happens with these-happened in 2/6/10, 1/3/22, a couple of storms in Mar 2014 that hit DC and dried up trying to reach us, Jan 2019-forget the date. Another outcome of that is usually the N gradient is sharper than models show since so much of what tries to advance N ends up as virga. 

on 2/6/10 many were still saying parts of the area would get 6-12, so the cutoff, which seemed to follow the NJTPK north, was more painful as we really only managed about 2-3 in my area, though someone in SI has always claimed they got 6, which is hard to believe, unless the very southern tip, which is minutes from me, managed to get a 6 inch drift...it looked like a Lilliputian blizzard outside my door, with 4 inch drifts from around 2-3 inches that fell. As one drove south on the turnpike, you could see the amounts going up, till I got to Cherry Hill and there was 2 feet. My area never got a direct hit that whole winter, though we had some good 10-12 events. 

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Smells and feels like snow outside

We'll get one, maybe two or more. Long way to go. We managed a few weeks ago, that can happen again.

[nightknights]

Got a question.  Is the high out in midwest pushing storm down and at the same time the Low spinning by St John's pushing the the moisture shield down with the winds out of the North/NW.  

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Smells and feels like snow outside

it smells and feels like sunshine outside....

 

BECAUSE IT'S MOSTLY SUNNY!

[psv88]

Man the models have been consistent with this storm for a week. Incredible!!!

[RU848789]

34 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

on 2/6/10 many were still saying parts of the area would get 6-12, so the cutoff, which seemed to follow the NJTPK north, was more painful as we really only managed about 2-3 in my area, though someone in SI has always claimed they got 6, which is hard to believe, unless the very southern tip, which is minutes from me, managed to get a 6 inch drift...it looked like a Lilliputian blizzard outside my door, with 4 inch drifts from around 2-3 inches that fell. As one drove south on the turnpike, you could see the amounts going up, till I got to Cherry Hill and there was 2 feet. My area never got a direct hit that whole winter, though we had some good 10-12 events. 

6" in Metuchen on 2/6/10.  Here's part of my recap from that one...(I post a lot more elsewhere, lol, but you kind of asked).  

Ok, here's the recap.  Well, I obviously spoke too soon yesterday morning (may need to get myself a "Jump To Conclusions" welcome mat - name that movie), as the next 5-7 hours brought the heaviest snow of the storm to many places including finally punching through the dry/cold air in most of Central Jersey, so that I at least got 6" of snow in Metuchen and everywhere south of Central Jersey kept getting hammered, meeting and even exceeding the amazing accumulation forecasts.  The only area that most of the pros "busted" was NE NJ, NYC (except SI) and LI and anywhere north of there.  However, overall, the forecasts were pretty damn good for a perhaps the most complex snowstorm to hit this area in a long time.  

·        NW NJ (Warren/Sussex/Morris), Bergen, Passaic, Essex and Hudson Counties, NYC, LI, CT and everywhere north of there essentially got shut out, except for an inch or two of snow in the southern parts of a few of those counties.  There was nearly mass weenie suicide on the NYC metro thread on Eastern. 

·        Central Jersey from about 78 down to a line from Trenton to Asbury Park generally got 6-12" of snow, except close to NYC, where most of Union County and most of Staten Island got 2-4" of snow; the larger amounts were to the south, of course. 

·        Interestingly, areas in PA that are at the same latitude as most of Central Jersey (i.e., Bucks, Berks and northern Montgomery Counties), got much more snow (12-18"), as they were further away from the "confluence" of incoming dry/cold air that squashed accumulations in NYC. 

·        Between the line from Trenton to Asbury Park and a line from Philly to Toms River, most locations got from 12" to 20" of snow and from Philly to Toms River and points southward, most locations got 20-30", which is an enormous amount of snow

·        The jackpot for snow accumulation was from about Philly (28") and adjacent South Jersey and the SW suburbs of Philly down through most of DE, the DC-Baltimore area, NE MD and northern VA (and even WV) where 24-36" accumulations were observed. 

·        So how's this for a gradient?  Simply moving down I-95, here's the progression of snowfall: 0.0" in Central Park, 1/2" in Newark, 1" in Elizabeth, 4" in Rahway, 6" in Metuchen, 8" in New Brunswick, 13" in Trenton, 19" in Mount Holly, 28" in Philly and 30" in Baltimore.  Unprecedented, especially the 0-28" over the ~90 miles from NYC to Philly. 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it smells and feels like sunshine outside....

 

BECAUSE IT'S MOSTLY SUNNY!

This weather sucks. Give me warm and dry over this weather if it's not going to snow. 

Oh and the wind makes it so much worse

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This weather sucks. Give me warm and dry over this weather if it's not going to snow. 

Oh and the wind makes it so much worse

It makes me really miss October and the first half of November....

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

And, of course, the ICON jumps north, so maybe the two camps are going to just move towards each other.  That would at least be better than a complete shutout for areas N of 276/195.  

Most of the globals have moved north with their precip shields at least a bit (especially the UK), so maybe we're seeing some convergence between the two camps finally.  Let's see what the Euro says...

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This weather sucks. Give me warm and dry over this weather if it's not going to snow. 

Oh and the wind makes it so much worse

But we need the cold to at least have a shot at snow. The fact that January is looking like a cold month gives us a good chance to get some snow events. I'll be over the cold in March and rooting for warm weather as we head towards the gardening season, but for now I'm glad we're looking at a consistent cold pattern for the next few weeks. Hopefully it will produce. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

6" in Metuchen on 2/6/10.  Here's part of my recap from that one...(I post a lot more elsewhere, lol, but you kind of asked).  

Ok, here's the recap.  Well, I obviously spoke too soon yesterday morning (may need to get myself a "Jump To Conclusions" welcome mat - name that movie), as the next 5-7 hours brought the heaviest snow of the storm to many places including finally punching through the dry/cold air in most of Central Jersey, so that I at least got 6" of snow in Metuchen and everywhere south of Central Jersey kept getting hammered, meeting and even exceeding the amazing accumulation forecasts.  The only area that most of the pros "busted" was NE NJ, NYC (except SI) and LI and anywhere north of there.  However, overall, the forecasts were pretty damn good for a perhaps the most complex snowstorm to hit this area in a long time.  

·        NW NJ (Warren/Sussex/Morris), Bergen, Passaic, Essex and Hudson Counties, NYC, LI, CT and everywhere north of there essentially got shut out, except for an inch or two of snow in the southern parts of a few of those counties.  There was nearly mass weenie suicide on the NYC metro thread on Eastern. 

·        Central Jersey from about 78 down to a line from Trenton to Asbury Park generally got 6-12" of snow, except close to NYC, where most of Union County and most of Staten Island got 2-4" of snow; the larger amounts were to the south, of course. 

·        Interestingly, areas in PA that are at the same latitude as most of Central Jersey (i.e., Bucks, Berks and northern Montgomery Counties), got much more snow (12-18"), as they were further away from the "confluence" of incoming dry/cold air that squashed accumulations in NYC. 

·        Between the line from Trenton to Asbury Park and a line from Philly to Toms River, most locations got from 12" to 20" of snow and from Philly to Toms River and points southward, most locations got 20-30", which is an enormous amount of snow

·        The jackpot for snow accumulation was from about Philly (28") and adjacent South Jersey and the SW suburbs of Philly down through most of DE, the DC-Baltimore area, NE MD and northern VA (and even WV) where 24-36" accumulations were observed. 

·        So how's this for a gradient?  Simply moving down I-95, here's the progression of snowfall: 0.0" in Central Park, 1/2" in Newark, 1" in Elizabeth, 4" in Rahway, 6" in Metuchen, 8" in New Brunswick, 13" in Trenton, 19" in Mount Holly, 28" in Philly and 30" in Baltimore.  Unprecedented, especially the 0-28" over the ~90 miles from NYC to Philly. 

I think the greatest gradient  I have ever seen was the 1.5 inches at JFK to 24 inches at Toms River.  That's nearly two feet over 50 miles!

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

6" in Metuchen on 2/6/10.  Here's part of my recap from that one...(I post a lot more elsewhere, lol, but you kind of asked).  

Ok, here's the recap.  Well, I obviously spoke too soon yesterday morning (may need to get myself a "Jump To Conclusions" welcome mat - name that movie), as the next 5-7 hours brought the heaviest snow of the storm to many places including finally punching through the dry/cold air in most of Central Jersey, so that I at least got 6" of snow in Metuchen and everywhere south of Central Jersey kept getting hammered, meeting and even exceeding the amazing accumulation forecasts.  The only area that most of the pros "busted" was NE NJ, NYC (except SI) and LI and anywhere north of there.  However, overall, the forecasts were pretty damn good for a perhaps the most complex snowstorm to hit this area in a long time.  

·        NW NJ (Warren/Sussex/Morris), Bergen, Passaic, Essex and Hudson Counties, NYC, LI, CT and everywhere north of there essentially got shut out, except for an inch or two of snow in the southern parts of a few of those counties.  There was nearly mass weenie suicide on the NYC metro thread on Eastern. 

·        Central Jersey from about 78 down to a line from Trenton to Asbury Park generally got 6-12" of snow, except close to NYC, where most of Union County and most of Staten Island got 2-4" of snow; the larger amounts were to the south, of course. 

·        Interestingly, areas in PA that are at the same latitude as most of Central Jersey (i.e., Bucks, Berks and northern Montgomery Counties), got much more snow (12-18"), as they were further away from the "confluence" of incoming dry/cold air that squashed accumulations in NYC. 

·        Between the line from Trenton to Asbury Park and a line from Philly to Toms River, most locations got from 12" to 20" of snow and from Philly to Toms River and points southward, most locations got 20-30", which is an enormous amount of snow

·        The jackpot for snow accumulation was from about Philly (28") and adjacent South Jersey and the SW suburbs of Philly down through most of DE, the DC-Baltimore area, NE MD and northern VA (and even WV) where 24-36" accumulations were observed. 

·        So how's this for a gradient?  Simply moving down I-95, here's the progression of snowfall: 0.0" in Central Park, 1/2" in Newark, 1" in Elizabeth, 4" in Rahway, 6" in Metuchen, 8" in New Brunswick, 13" in Trenton, 19" in Mount Holly, 28" in Philly and 30" in Baltimore.  Unprecedented, especially the 0-28" over the ~90 miles from NYC to Philly. 

That was the storm that made me think that Philly belongs in the MidAtlantic subforum not part of our subforum.

 

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

on 2/6/10 many were still saying parts of the area would get 6-12, so the cutoff, which seemed to follow the NJTPK north, was more painful as we really only managed about 2-3 in my area, though someone in SI has always claimed they got 6, which is hard to believe, unless the very southern tip, which is minutes from me, managed to get a 6 inch drift...it looked like a Lilliputian blizzard outside my door, with 4 inch drifts from around 2-3 inches that fell. As one drove south on the turnpike, you could see the amounts going up, till I got to Cherry Hill and there was 2 feet. My area never got a direct hit that whole winter, though we had some good 10-12 events. 

the following winter was much better.

How did you do in the last storm in 09-10, when Central Park got 20 inches-- the snowicane? That was the start of three 20 inch snowstorms in 12 months!

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

I post on the 33andrain Discord, but also find it harder to navigate/follow, plus it has a ton of useless banter mixed in, but it does have more meteorologists posting model play by play and other commentary, which I do like.  And I also post a lot more on FB and a couple of other boards. 

And great points on the NWS - feel similarly, although I also dislike the harsh bashing they get when a forecast is wrong or even just a bit off, as many simply don't understand how complex the weather is and that it's still impossible to accurately predict precip/snowfall (especially in mixed precip events) several days in advance and even, sometimes 12 hours in advance, lol.  It's not that they're bad scientists - this is just really hard stuff to get right. 

Bashing is social media.
 

Many bashers are self centered with little care how their words play. wonder what their families are like? That’s the cost of freedom.
 

Just take something good out of it, maybe that they pay attention to the forecast. 

[Dark Star]

29 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

But we need the cold to at least have a shot at snow. The fact that January is looking like a cold month gives us a good chance to get some snow events. I'll be over the cold in March and rooting for warm weather as we head towards the gardening season, but for now I'm glad we're looking at a consistent cold pattern for the next few weeks. Hopefully it will produce. 

 

[RU848789]

56 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Most of the globals have moved north with their precip shields at least a bit (especially the UK), so maybe we're seeing some convergence between the two camps finally.  Let's see what the Euro says...

Ok, every global has bumped up snowfall amounts at least a bit, so CNJ is not shut out on any of them, although we're only talking 1/2-1" for most with up to 1.5-2" as one nears 276/195 - and Philly gets at least 2" on all of them (except the UK which is still an outlier but not nearly as much as it was). 

Point is this appears to be some convergence with the mesos/CAMs which still mostly show more, especially the HRRR/RAP.  At this point, it's time to make a guesstimate, so I'm going with 1.5" at my house in Metuchen, as I like the trend on the globals and think the mesos/CAMs might do better on this storm.  Unfortunately <1" is still on the table, but so is 2-4", at my house and for most of CNJ, especially towards 276/195.  

[Violentweatherfan]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was the storm that made me think that Philly belongs in the MidAtlantic subforum not part of our subforum.

 

Philadelphia has its own sub forum. Mid Atlantic is an excellent resource for information for any forum including the NY forum 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Philadelphia has its own sub forum. Mid Atlantic is an excellent resource for information for any forum including the NY forum 

And SNE subforum also

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That was the storm that made me think that Philly belongs in the MidAtlantic subforum not part of our subforum.

 

Philly is not in the NYC subforum, although from the constant references over the years from posters you might assume they are.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Philly is not in the NYC subforum, although from the constant references over the years from posters you might assume they are.

I believe at one time they were combined?

[dseagull]

Just got back from the grocery store.  You'd think a massive blizzard was taking aim.   It's a little but disturbing how easily people get into a frenzy when they simply hear "SNOW."

I am glad I have 4WD...  need it to safely get through the 3 inches of salt on the roads.  Hahah

[North and West]

Just got back from the grocery store.  You'd think a massive blizzard was taking aim.   It's a little but disturbing how easily people get into a frenzy when they simply hear "SNOW."
I am glad I have 4WD...  need it to safely get through the 3 inches of salt on the roads.  Hahah

And even out here on the frontier, they plow the roads


.

[Stormlover74]

Taking a look at the radar it seems like areas near Winston Salem are getting heavy snow right now and they're not even in an advisory 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Philadelphia has its own sub forum. Mid Atlantic is an excellent resource for information for any forum including the NY forum 

They are, some of the most brilliant minds are in that subforum.  I just meant weatherwise in grouping geographically according to people who typically get hit by the same storms, etc.

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, North and West said:

And even out here on the frontier, they plow the roads


.

Looks like they'll be plowing three inches of salt instead!

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I believe at one time they were combined?

Yep, when we first started the subforum thing we shared one.