Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[RU848789]

it's probably over for more than 2" for CNJ, but I'd still be happy with 1-2".  There's still time for minor shifts back north to make that happen, as we're not that far off.  CMC still has 1-2", GFS/RGEM have an inch, and NAM/ICON have an inch or so for the southern half of CNJ, plus there's the 2-4" on the SREFs. 

If we hadn't seen snowier solutions over the past few days and were magically transported to where we are now with no knowledge of the past, we might look at where we are now and say, hey, some minor to moderate changes get CNJ and maybe even NYC into at least a couple of inches of snow.  The models don't "remember" previous runs and are independent events with new data every time (as far as I know).  

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

May not even be advisory level north of Baltimore 

The UKMET pretty much shows that now, most of the snow is in VA

[RU848789]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKMET pretty much shows that now, most of the snow is in VA

wow, even Philly gets screwed with essentially nada

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

wow, even Philly gets screwed with essentially nada

Yesterday they were looking like double digits was a real possibility, now they are hanging on for dear life. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

it's probably over for more than 2" for CNJ, but I'd still be happy with 1-2".  There's still time for minor shifts back north to make that happen, as we're not that far off.  CMC still has 1-2", GFS/RGEM have an inch, and NAM/ICON have an inch or so for the southern half of CNJ, plus there's the 2-4" on the SREFs. 

If we hadn't seen snowier solutions over the past few days and were magically transported to where we are now with no knowledge of the past, we might look at where we are now and say, hey, some minor to moderate changes get CNJ and maybe even NYC into at least a couple of inches of snow.  The models don't "remember" previous runs and are independent events with new data every time (as far as I know).  

I agree with you. I see 0z Euro is about the same as the 12z run ... it gives us a little light snow with maybe a half inch to an inch. Maybe this event will keep trending worse and we won't get a flake, but it's still possible for our area to get 1 to 2 inches. As long as that's possible I'll keep rooting for this. To me a little snow is a lot better than no snow at all. 

[wdrag]

Basically: This is our only game in town for snowfall,  possibly until the last two weeks of the month?  I'm not big on the 10th-11th this far north and certainly no thread for that (Canadian is north for now). 

Back to the coming event (or non depending on where you live).  I'll adjust the headlines slight at 745AM.

nw NJ-nePA-Orange County NY and NYC-LI...right now a dusting to possibly 3" but we're on the fringe here with uncertainty. Best chance for 3" is along I80. Modeling differs saying I80-I84 basically nil including 07z/4 BOM,  but for me.. I keep the door open.  Basically there is going to be banding Monday and that will be a factor in generating snowfall.  Just too early for me to discard, especially recent 00z-06z/4 cycles of the NAM/SREF/Canadian.  If you put all your money on the EC/EPS...then its not favorable I80 north. 

 

 

 

[wdrag]

720A/4 edited the title to limit event to the 6th and dropped the ice pellet tag.  The event has at least held onto the 6h for timing since the initial Dec 30 post, but the max axis in PA-NJ has shifted south about 150 miles since the post started 6 days ago. That is worthy of keeping in mind when posting threads 6 days in advance... limits confidence of occurrence.  A positive  note the accuracy of the D7 WPC chance of 1/4" frozen in the Ohio Valley!

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Basically: This is our only game in town for snowfall,  possibly until the last two weeks of the month?  I'm not big on the 10th-11th this far north and certainly no thread for that (Canadian is north for now). 

Back to the coming event (or non depending on where you live).  I'll adjust the headlines slight at 745AM.

nw NJ-nePA-Orange County NY and NYC-LI...right now a dusting to possibly 3" but we're on the fringe here with uncertainty. Best chance for 3" is along I80. Modeling differs saying I80-I84 basically nil including 07z/4 BOM,  but for me.. I keep the door open.  Basically there is going to be banding Monday and that will be a factor in generating snowfall.  Just too early for me to discard, especially recent 00z-06z/4 cycles of the NAM/SREF/Canadian.  If you put all your money on the EC/EPS...then its not favorable I80 north. 

 

 

 

The 06Z Nam precip shield moved north about 30 -40 miles from the 0Z run and steadier precip doesn't enter the immediate NYC metro until mid- morning in Northern Middlesex/ Union County NJ so basically is still 2 days away.........see if this trend continues at 12Z - I would discount exact precip amounts on these model outputs right now because of heavier banding possibilities.....and drier slots - example - last Feb 16 -17 storm...

[wdrag]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The 06Z Nam precip shield moved north about 30 -40 miles from the 0Z run and steadier precip doesn't enter the immediate NYC metro until mid- morning in Northern Middlesex/ Union County NJ so basically is still 2 days away.........see if this trend continues at 12Z

If it goes away on the se 12z/4 and 18z/4 runs...then I have to think its over.  Overall pattern to me continues to shove north into our area at times 10A-10P. imo,  think its best to keep projections stable til we KNOW for sure it wont happen and just wave it off and not worry anymore about the northern extent. I like the GFS banding signal.  That will be something to watch these next 2 days.  WPC also has a nice banding program but limited to 48 hours. 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

If it goes away on the se 12z/4 and 18z/4 runs...then I have to think its over.  Overall pattern to me continues to shove north into our area at times 10A-10P. imo,  think its best to keep projections stable til we KNOW for sure it wont happen and just wave it off and not worry anymore about the northern extent. I like the GFS banding signal.  That will be something to watch these next 2 days.  WPC also has a nice banding program but limited to 48 hours. 

With the amount of times the NAM has done something like this in the past only to burn us in the end I take its solutions with a huge grain of salt

[Allsnow]

Nam is definitely further north earlier on for the 12z run because the lobe north of Maine is slower. Unfortunately, it still needs to come down which will act as a kicker before precipitation can get to us 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam is definitely further north earlier on for the 12z run because the lobe north of Maine is slower. Unfortunately, it still needs to come down which will act as a kicker before precipitation can get to us 

Heavy snow into phl now. But the kicker is coming down 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Heavy snow into phl now. But the kicker is coming down 

So close

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

So close

Same theme on the 3k 

Only hope would slow that kicker down even more 

[North and West]

Same theme on the 3k 
Only hope would slow that kicker down even more 

Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.


.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Heavy snow into phl now. But the kicker is coming down 

The NAM loves doing this with literally every storm at this range. It has 2 runs where it over amps/comes north of all the other guidance, then it pulls the rug out in subsequent runs

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM loves doing this with literally every storm at this range. It has 2 runs where it over amps/comes north of all the other guidance, then it pulls the rug out in subsequent runs

The other models were also a tick north at 6z.

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Same theme on the 3k 

Only hope would slow that kicker down even more 

There's probably going to be decent banding on the northern fringe with nothing north of there. Think it sets up near or just south of I78

[Allsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

There's probably going to be decent banding on the northern fringe with nothing north of there. Think it sets up near or just south of I78

Depending of what the rest of the guidance does, phl might be in a good spot 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The other models were also a tick north at 6z.

Unfortunately I think your area is a no go. I-80 north is screwed. 1-78 will likely be northern extent. Nam shows this quite well

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Unfortunately I think your area is a no go. I-80 north is screwed. 1-78 will likely be northern extent. Nam shows this quite well

Yup. Nyc will probably get a trace at best with this event 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's probably going to be decent banding on the northern fringe with nothing north of there. Think it sets up near or just south of I78

Sounds like what happened last Feb 16-17 with that heavy band just south of I-78

[winterwarlock]

why is Mt Holly putting out such high amount for Philly with some of the models not the nam not giving them much

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

why is Mt Holly putting out such high amount for Philly with some of the models not the nam not giving them much

Because they are using Meteorology NOT Modelology.............models don't have the ability to predict exact accumulation amounts exactly this far out with banding and possible dry slot coming into play - this event is going to be a typical now casting event with surprises IMO

[North and West]

why is Mt Holly putting out such high amount for Philly with some of the models not the nam not giving them much

This is my two cents, but it seems like a lot of guys here take the models as gospel, even though it’s likely they should be used more as guidance and suggestions, in a logical sense.

It’s like I see hitters’ projections for the upcoming season, which only takes into account talent; they don’t take into account when the player may start dating Rihanna (see Matt Kemp’s career and the correlations).


.

[Newman]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

why is Mt Holly putting out such high amount for Philly with some of the models not the nam not giving them much

Compared to the prior forecast, totals were shifted southward a
bit as the overall storm track is a bit more southerly on this
set of guidance. However, its quite possible it shifts back
north next cycle, so was a bit generous with the coverage of the
winter storm watch when comparing it to actual forecast totals,
which even at this stage I wouldn`t take as anywhere close to
being in stone. A bit of shifting can still mean several inches
of difference, especially around Philly and points north.

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Because they are using Meteorology NOT Modelology.............models don't have the ability to predict exact accumulation amounts exactly this far out with banding and possible dry slot coming into play - this event is going to be a typical now casting event with surprises IMO

well if the ukie or euro are correct its going to be a tragic bust and they should take incredible heat

[Allsnow]

Icon will be further north which will mean more for phl 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Sounds like what happened last Feb 16-17 with that heavy band just south of I-78

In this instance that could end up further south. We won't know exactly where that fringe sets up until tomorrow probably. 

12z suite needs to shift slightly north today otherwise even I-78 will be too far north 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon will be further north which will mean more for phl 

Still stinks but globals probably aren't the way to go. A lot of upstream convection that could affect how intense and /or north the fringe gets. 

Mesos will handle this a lot better.