Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

That’s probably what the euro does here at 12z looking at the earlier frames 

Sw stronger and hgts a hair higher 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Sw stronger and hgts a hair higher 

Yep precip is slightly more north 

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Toms River is VERY much South Jersey (lots of Piney culture here) 

I guess it depends on where in TR, I’ve lived here since 2011 now. People definitely commute to the immediate metro or even NYC for work. The area south and west of 37 is a bit different than the northern areas. At least that’s been my perception. 
 

It is definitely a border region, so it would make sense that it’s a blend of influences culturally, but that linked map made immediate sense to me. 

[BoulderWX]

EURO LOL! 

this board is gonna need a Valium 

[dseagull]

20 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Toms River is VERY much South Jersey (lots of Piney culture here) 

I guess I'm not wrong with my confusion.   It's clear that many people do not agree on the lines, which makes for difficult interpretation of forecast for those of us in the overlap.   I guess my former home in salem county may as well have been called Alabama. 

 

For this storm, I'm primarily trying to decide if I should get the work boats covered up or not.  Once more than 2-4 inches of snow collects on the decks, its surprisingly difficult to de-ice fore safe operation if i recieve a call for a boater or duck hunter in distress.   

Covering them is not as easy of a task as one would believe, and takes 30-45 minutes to uncover as well. 

[RU848789]

39 minutes ago, MGorse said:

The NBM is time lagged. If there is a notable pattern change in the guidance and even a trend then the NBM will take time to catch up. Closer in time, the NBM incorporates the high resolution guidance which can lead to a noticeable change in the output. 
 

More info about the NBM is available here: 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm

 

Thanks!!  I tried looking through that website before and just now and maybe I'm just dense, but I couldn't find anything on the time lag nature of the inputs into the NBM, but I'll certainly take your word for it.  A time lag definitely explains how the NBM output at a particular time can look more like the output from the models from 6 hours earlier rather than the models that run somewhat concurrently with that time, assuming that the NBM is not including those concurrent runs. And yes I do realize the shorter term/high res guidance does start getting incorporated as one nears an event.  

[MGorse]

12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks!!  I tried looking through that website before and just now and maybe I'm just dense, but I couldn't find anything on the time lag nature of the inputs into the NBM, but I'll certainly take your word for it.  A time lag definitely explains how the NBM output at a particular time can look more like the output from the models from 6 hours earlier rather than the models that run somewhat concurrently with that time, assuming that the NBM is not including those concurrent runs. And yes I do realize the shorter term/high res guidance does start getting incorporated as one nears an event.  

I had to search some but hopefully this is what you are looking for…

 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/7858320/NBMv4.1NWPMatrix.pdf

 

[ForestHillWx]

I usually use 78 as the divider between North/Central Jersey, but I grew up in northeast Morris, now live in southwest Morris, so I am biased. 

[Volcanic Winter]

15 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

EURO LOL! 

this board is gonna need a Valium 

Can’t check at the moment, what is it showing?

[winterwx21]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Sw stronger and hgts a hair higher 

Only a shade better, but at least it's still early enough that slight improvements are ok. I wouldn't want to be north and east of NYC for this one, but our area still has a shot at getting a few inches of snow. 

[qg_omega]

22 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

EURO LOL! 

this board is gonna need a Valium 

bannable

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Can’t check at the moment, what is it showing?

It fringes ACY with any good snow which is I guess better than 6z. All you need to know. Minor improvements here and there aren’t enough north of Trenton to Belmar. 

[Franklin0529]

8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Can’t check at the moment, what is it showing?

Precip came north a little. Nothing crazy, still time to get this a little north. Not gonna be huge storm but can get 2-3"

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Only a shade better, but at least it's still early enough that slight improvements are ok. I wouldn't want to be north and east of NYC for this one, but our area still has a shot at getting a few inches of snow. 

Yup, idk if you read my post earlier in the run which I said it would look like the ukmet. 
 

We are back where we started with less time left for big moves if any 

[psv88]

It’s over north of Philly. Maybe nyc squeezes out half an inch. The table is set and models are locked in. wasnt meant to be

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

It’s over north of Philly. Maybe nyc squeezes out half an inch. The table is set and models are locked in. wasnt meant to be

At 72 hours away it's still too early to say models are locked in for sure. Model skill isn't that good. I don't think we're going to get a major shift that gives us a big snowstorm, but we could get enough of a north bump that our area gets a few inches. I could also see our area only getting a half inch coating. We'll see. At least it will be cold enough that even a very light snow will accumulate. 

[psv88]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

At 72 hours away it's still too early to say models are locked in for sure. Model skill isn't that good. I don't think we're going to get a major shift that gives us a big snowstorm, but we could get enough of a north bump that our area gets a few inches. I could also see our area only getting a half inch coating. We'll see. At least it will be cold enough that even a very light snow will accumulate. 

Oh it’s over. Sometimes you gotta go out on a limb. Sticking to my dusting to an inch call from 3 days ago

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Oh it’s over. Sometimes you gotta go out on a limb. Sticking to my dusting to an inch call from 3 days ago

Situation hasn’t changed from 24 hours ago. And now we have 24 hours less for the changes needed which are substantial not a few minor tweaks. I don’t think most of us care about a car topper or coating that’s gone in a few hours. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Hopefully we get that last minute within 48 hour jog north. 

[LVblizzard]

For what it’s worth (probably not much) the 15z SREF bumped north a bit.

[pstar3182]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I guess it depends on where in TR, I’ve lived here since 2011 now. People definitely commute to the immediate metro or even NYC for work. The area south and west of 37 is a bit different than the northern areas. At least that’s been my perception. 
 

It is definitely a border region, so it would make sense that it’s a blend of influences culturally, but that linked map made immediate sense to me. 

195 is south of NJs Mason Dixon Line TR is south for sure. 

[mikem81]

22 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

For what it’s worth (probably not much) the 15z SREF bumped north a bit.

Well see if NAM follows suit. NYC area needs a 50 mile shift at the 18Z and 0Z models to just stay in the game for the last minute north bumps tomorrow and sunday as inside 48 hours anything will be 25 miles or less 

[dseagull]

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Situation hasn’t changed from 24 hours ago. And now we have 24 hours less for the changes needed which are substantial not a few minor tweaks. I don’t think most of us care about a car topper or coating that’s gone in a few hours. 

As it stands currently, I think I'm looking at the far northern fringe of the 3 inch line here in Barnegat, NJ. You concurr? 

Disappointing as hell for snow, but it's going to save me 8 collective hours of covering up my boats. 

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, dseagull said:

As it stands currently, I think I'm looking at the far northern fringe of the 3 inch line here in Barnegat, NJ. You concurr? 

Disappointing as hell for snow, but it's going to save me 8 collective hours of covering up my boats. 

 

Tough call there. I’d probably expect a couple or few inches. More clear cut around ACY, north of there becomes more iffy based on minor shifts. 

[NEG NAO]

They came around here in Northern Middlesex County spraying the roads with ice melt because Mount Holly said 40 % chance of snow this afternoon but Sunny here

[TJW014]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

They came around here in Northern Middlesex County spraying the roads with ice melt because Mount Holly said 40 % chance of snow this afternoon but Sunny here

Gotta get in that overtime 

[MJO812]

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, TJW014 said:

Toms River is VERY much South Jersey (lots of Piney culture here) 

Toms River is central NJ and considered the southern limit of our subforum (and the southern limit of our local TV stations.)

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Avoid this forum or anything weather related on Monday then. All you can do other than listen for Mother Nature cackling at us. That’s why I said I mind it less if we never had a shot in the first place and this was crushing Richmond/Norfolk. I totally buy the sharp northern edge, these dry air/confluence storms almost always have those deals where you have the ESE leaning snow shield out of PA and it goes from a coating to 6” within 20-30 miles. The S NJ posters here might still get a nice event. 

whatever it is, it can't be any worse than 2/6/2010 lol

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Models often overestimate the northern extent of snow when we’re dealing with so much confluence/dry air. The radar will show wave after wave of it get eaten which is what I remember from that 1/3/22 storm, the Jan 2019 storm and 2/6/10. There likely won’t be a large area of 1-2” like this, it goes from a very small amount to warning snow quickly in that northernmost fronto/death band. The 1-2” area shown is likely just virga. 

We remember 2/6/10 here, nothing could ever be as extreme as that was!  a Trace in Central Park, 1.5" at JFK and here.... 6" in southern Staten Island and 2 feet in Toms River!