Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

CMC going to be similar to the icon 

Yep amped up

[Stormlover74]

Lol

 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep amped up

Ends up a bit South of 0z.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep amped up

Confluence was stronger…

the shortwave was very amped up. Just weaken that confluence a bit 

[Snowlover11]

would be icing on the cake with our luck in snowfall the last few years if the south wins out before us.

[vegan_edible]

im gonna be tight if we get skunked during this period. im inclined to agree with @snowman19 that we'll either get something when the pattern arrives or the block breaks down

[Stormlover74]

Ukie still decent. 

Actually better than decent. Warning criteria for many

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie still decent. 

Actually better than decent. Warning criteria for many

 

[EastonSN+]

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie still decent. 

Actually better than decent. Warning criteria for many

Yeah, UKIE would make everyone pretty happy. Should start to have a better idea this weekend.

[HeadInTheClouds]

UKIE ain't afraid of no confluence. 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie still decent. 

Actually better than decent. Warning criteria for many

Pretty obvious-the confluence decides how far north this can come. The S/W strength matters too but it won’t matter if the brick wall is that strong. When you see the ESE lean to the precip/snow map you know the brick wall is doing its thing. Too early to tell on that, we’ll have to wait another 48-60 hours or so to have an idea. 

[EastonSN+]

Will be interesting to see if the gefs matches the op.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Pretty obvious-the confluence decides how far north this can come. The S/W strength matters too but it won’t matter if the brick wall is that strong. When you see the ESE lean to the precip/snow map you know the brick wall is doing its thing. Too early to tell on that, we’ll have to wait another 48-60 hours or so to have an idea. 

And you have hundreds of miles difference between the icon/euro/ukie and the cmc/gfs

[EastonSN+]

Gefs a bit south of the 6z run.

[MJO812]

We need the blocking to ease up

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need the blocking to ease up

On the bright side at least the Mid-Atlantic can get some snow.

[vegan_edible]

im hoping we see a change tonight at 00Z, this is slightly absurd. 

[SnowGoose69]

By 96 we probably want to see a consensus somewhere between the GFS/Euro.  If it holds there through 96 if we go off historic tendencies it probably will gradually come north.  I've not seen too many cases where confluence at this range is not overdone.  Don't want to have to be bringing it back from Raleigh or Charleston though.  Parts of SNE outside of the coast might be close to out of it though at this point.  

[Snowlover11]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need the blocking to ease up

LOL.  Talk about ultimate screwjob. within a 50-60 mile radius of nyc

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Icon also more north then the GFS-Canadian and Euro

[Allsnow]

EPS definitely ticked south 

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

LOL.  Talk about ultimate screwjob. within a 50-60 mile radius of nyc

the avg model error at this range is greater then 50 miles

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

LOL.  Talk about ultimate screwjob. within a 50-60 mile radius of nyc

Ehh not really on this map verbatim. Often the north ends of these can be overdone because dry air/confluence eat up whatever snow tries to come north. So more like 100 miles. There’s still plenty of time but a screwjob like this is a perfectly reasonable outcome if we’re dealing with a huge dome of confluence just to our north. 

[BoulderWX]

Would suck not get something in the next 15 days in this pattern, but stranger things have happened. Would honestly be happy with a 3-6 type event, I think the confluence is too much for anything larger at this point. 

[wishcast_hater]

4 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Would suck not get something in the next 15 days in this pattern, but stranger things have happened. Would honestly be happy with a 3-6 type event, I think the confluence is too much for anything larger at this point. 

I remember the 80's  - super cold and no snow then cold recedes and snow to rain.  That was my childhood, im scarred for life.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Would suck not get something in the next 15 days in this pattern, but stranger things have happened. Would honestly be happy with a 3-6 type event, I think the confluence is too much for anything larger at this point. 

then hope the Ukie and Icon are correct

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I remember the 80's  - super cold and no snow then cold recedes and snow to rain.  That was my childhood, im scarred for life.

There was also record high temperatures in the 80s as well it was a disaster all around for snowfall. Only five above average snowfall Winters for New York City in the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Would suck not get something in the next 15 days in this pattern, but stranger things have happened. Would honestly be happy with a 3-6 type event, I think the confluence is too much for anything larger at this point. 

At some point something will have to phase and develop a system strong enough to drive N into the confluence, the confluence will have to wane while having enough influence not to allow a driving cutter and rainstorm. These fast Pacific patterns are tailor made to wreck our chances here along the I-80 corridor. They can sometimes allow suppressed systems because of lack of amplification, and often allow SWFEs and cutters which do us no good either. The Pacific will have to calm down with spraying endless northern stream noise, and something will have to slow down and amplify. This upcoming pattern is above average for possibilities here but useless cold/dry for 10 days then over to our usual endless cutter-fest when that relaxes is certainly possible. We’ve struck out several times in the past 5 winters since the Pacific started going ballistic. 

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS definitely ticked south 

It still looks fine