Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Its coming. Little by little. I mentioned the blocking being weaker then modeled. That possibility is still there 

Modelology at its finest in here .............

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Modelology at its finest in here .............

It's possible that the models weaken the confluence but running out of time .

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is pain 

Avoid this forum or anything weather related on Monday then. All you can do other than listen for Mother Nature cackling at us. That’s why I said I mind it less if we never had a shot in the first place and this was crushing Richmond/Norfolk. I totally buy the sharp northern edge, these dry air/confluence storms almost always have those deals where you have the ESE leaning snow shield out of PA and it goes from a coating to 6” within 20-30 miles. The S NJ posters here might still get a nice event. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

We're back where we were 3 days ago

Yep and I'm not giving up. Our area is right near the edge on the GFS. We just need the usual slight north bumps in the 48 hours before the storm. 

RGEM does get the light snow shield pretty far north. Don't know if it's right on that, but hopefully we can pull off at least an inch or so of snow like it shows. Hopefully we'll get some north bumps to get more than that, but to me an inch is a lot better than getting shut out. Right now I think our area still has a decent chance of pulling off a light snow event. 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's possible that the models weaken the confluence but running out of time .

this is going to be another now casting event throughout the region - any shift 30 - 50 miles in any direction makes a difference along with banding that develops

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yep and I'm not giving up. Our area is right near the edge on the GFS. We just need the usual slight north bumps in the 48 hours before the storm. 

RGEM does get the light snow shield pretty far north. Don't know if it's right on that, but hopefully we can pull off at least an inch or so of snow like it shows. Hopefully we'll get some north bumps to get more than that, but to me an inch is a lot better than getting shut out. Right now I think our area still has a decent chance of pulling off a light snow event. 

0z runs are gonna be interesting, im also in the north trend camp. I dont see a shutout esp as powerful as this storm could be,a battle of pressures ensues.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

17 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Currently the blocking is looking a bit weaker and north then modeled for today,not sure if it translates in a few days but if todays snow showers make it to nyc then i think the models might be overdoing the blocking itself.

Sometimes you just have to let it go, for your sanity and ours.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Sometimes you just have to let it go, for your sanity and ours.

My sanity is fine,if rooting for any snowfall is insane then put me in the asylum. 

[MJO812]

Cmc 

[winterwx21]

CMC not surprisingly looks similar to RGEM. It gets the light snow pretty far north and at least gives most of the area an inch of snow. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Sometimes you just have to let it go, for your sanity and ours.

that all depends where you reside in the region - here in Central NJ have to keep updated on this situation.......

[mikem81]

I think we are looking at the piece of energy near Montreal. Notice the difference between the GFS and Euro with the strength and location which shreds or doesnt 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

CMC not surprisingly looks similar to RGEM. It gets the light snow pretty far north and at least gives most of the area an inch of snow. 

This reminds me of 1/3/22 though where some of the models brought measurable snow to our area and missed by 50 miles. We could squeeze out something but just won't know until sunday with the cutoff being so close. It could still go either direction and give us nothing or 2"+

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This reminds me of 1/3/22 though where some of the models brought measurable snow to our area and missed by 50 miles. We could squeeze out something but just won't know until sunday with the cutoff being so close. It could still go either direction and give us nothing or 2"+

Models often overestimate the northern extent of snow when we’re dealing with so much confluence/dry air. The radar will show wave after wave of it get eaten which is what I remember from that 1/3/22 storm, the Jan 2019 storm and 2/6/10. There likely won’t be a large area of 1-2” like this, it goes from a very small amount to warning snow quickly in that northernmost fronto/death band. The 1-2” area shown is likely just virga. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Models often overestimate the northern extent of snow when we’re dealing with so much confluence/dry air. The radar will show wave after wave of it get eaten which is what I remember from that 1/3/22 storm, the Jan 2019 storm and 2/6/10. There likely won’t be a large area of 1-2” like this, it goes from a very small amount to warning snow quickly in that northernmost fronto/death band. The 1-2” area shown is likely just virga. 

Yeah that's my thinking too

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Models often overestimate the northern extent of snow when we’re dealing with so much confluence/dry air. The radar will show wave after wave of it get eaten which is what I remember from that 1/3/22 storm, the Jan 2019 storm and 2/6/10. There likely won’t be a large area of 1-2” like this, it goes from a very small amount to warning snow quickly in that northernmost fronto/death band. The 1-2” area shown is likely just virga. 

the question is where is this going to set up ?

[dseagull]

30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Avoid this forum or anything weather related on Monday then. All you can do other than listen for Mother Nature cackling at us. That’s why I said I mind it less if we never had a shot in the first place and this was crushing Richmond/Norfolk. I totally buy the sharp northern edge, these dry air/confluence storms almost always have those deals where you have the ESE leaning snow shield out of PA and it goes from a coating to 6” within 20-30 miles. The S NJ posters here might still get a nice event. 

Honest question.  Where are thr lines between North, Central, and South Jersey?  I read these geographic descriptors so often and I never know what people are referencing.  Thanks. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Honest question.  Where are thr lines between North, Central, and South Jersey?  I read these geographic descriptors so often and I never know what people are referencing.  Thanks. 

By South Jersey I consider it south of I-195, Central Jersey I guess would be between there and I-78. 

[NEG NAO]

North Jersey is anywhere North Of Middlesex County - Central Jersey Middlesex County Down threw Monmouth County - Southern NJ Ocean County and points south

[Superstorm]

Honest question.  Where are thr lines between North, Central, and South Jersey?  I read these geographic descriptors so often and I never know what people are referencing.  Thanks. 

Those are tough lines to draw up….as much is determined socially, geographically or politically.


Some would say Mercer is South Jersey and ocean is Central Jersey.


.

[NJwx85]

A lot of what you see falling on the Northern fringe will be extremely light. Going to be lots of subsidence North of where this sets up.

 

[mikem81]

If someone can show the timing and location of the confluence we should be watching for in terms of trends that would be great. Some analysis

[Volcanic Winter]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Those are tough lines to draw up….as much is determined socially, geographically or politically.


Some would say Mercer is South Jersey and ocean is Central Jersey.


.

I agree with this, doesn't work solely with county lines but Toms River is really not south NJ and is definitely part of the NYC metro. Really the southern extent of CNJ.

Once you go south of me though, things are very different - so I actually think this map is pretty much spot on.

[gravitylover]

I'd rather have nothing than a slippery inch that makes the plethora of bad drivers do dumber things than usual.

[dseagull]

Thanks for the responses.   I grew up in Salem county and now live on barnegat bay in ocean county.  I used to call this North Jersey up here.  Sorry to derail, just useful in interpretation of forecasts. 

[MGorse]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

A couple of folks on 33andrain, including one met, have said that the NBM is time lagged, i.e., the 07Z NBM would only include model inputs through 0z and not the 06Z models.  That would at least explain why the NBM snowfall for 07Z is greater than the 01Z NBM for areas N of Philly and much greater than the 06Z models would suggest, since they're generally much lower than the 0Z models were.  To me, that makes the NBM a much less useful tool, if that's correct, as it would always be 6 hours behind. 

@MGorse- sorry to tag you again, but can you clarify if this is the case, i.e., what time model inputs go into a particular NBM run?  I'd also be curious (see the quoted post) if the 12Z WPC QPF output is simply the 07Z NBM QPF field (they're identical), which is based on 0Z model data - that seems to be very old data, then.  

The NBM is time lagged. If there is a notable pattern change in the guidance and even a trend then the NBM will take time to catch up. Closer in time, the NBM incorporates the high resolution guidance which can lead to a noticeable change in the output. 
 

More info about the NBM is available here: 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm

 

[MJO812]

Ukie is north of 0z but still not that far north. 

[MJO812]

[TJW014]

30 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I agree with this, doesn't work solely with county lines but Toms River is really not south NJ and is definitely part of the NYC metro. Really the southern extent of CNJ.

Once you go south of me though, things are very different - so I actually think this map is pretty much spot on.

Toms River is VERY much South Jersey (lots of Piney culture here) 

[Allsnow]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is north of 0z but still not that far north. 

That’s probably what the euro does here at 12z looking at the earlier frames