Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[LVblizzard]

It’s the hope that kills you…

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will continue to look at the video I took of the light snowfall from Christmas Eve to make me happy.

Will need to take a road trip to see snow

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will continue to look at the video I took of the light snowfall from Christmas Eve to make me happy.

Giving up already 3 days out ? I thought you said the confluence always weakens as we get closer to the event ?

[WestBabylonWeather]

I definitely don’t think it’s over. If the runs tonight are south, then I’d worry 

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Another “epic pattern” failure 

It’s the same people living in H5 at 300 hours

[romba]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will continue to look at the video I took of the light snowfall from Christmas Eve to make me happy.

[jm1220]

37 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It really isnt a roller coaster. The storm misses south and may graze us. Everything else is model noise

There have been some spots of hope like the GFS last night but this was always a long shot here because of so much confluence. Best to understand that and hope there’s a rabbit pulled out of the hat but much more likely to be disappointment. There’s still some time for a miracle like that PV lobe crushing the storm south to pivot away or weaken, but we need to see that asap along with a stronger S/W. I doubt there’s even a graze for 90% of our subforum, probably just cloudy. Northern stream dominated patterns like these just suck here 90%+ of the time-wave interference, too late blooming Miller B, warm cutter/SWFE, or this. 

[RU848789]

Just a minor shift south over the last 18 hours for the ICON.

[EastonSN+]

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s the same people living in H5 at 300 hours

There is nothing wrong with looking at the h5 pattern at 300 hours. In fact multiple people stated, including myself, that the axis of the trough was right over us and too far East. The h5 pattern at 300 was absolutely correct unfortunately. 

Forky even stated that the period could easily be cold and dry.

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Any combo of 2 gets us snow. Weaker confluence,stronger lp. If the Canadian upper low moves west it will allow for a pathway north with the precip and low. Also a more northern placement of the blocking,would also allow a pathway north with precip and low. Right now 75% of modeling suggest minimal snow,although im in the camp of a more northern weaker positioning of the blocking,letting it snow to nyc.

[MJO812]

If the lobe wasn't there in Maine this would been a normal SWFE and trend north .

[NJwx85]

38 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Just can't catch a break here. I think it's comical that we go from cutters or storms with no cold air in place to an overly suppressed set up. I can deal with the first two but the confluence induced dry walls are the worst.

I've had 4 measurable snowfalls already, two plowable and it's only January 3rd. The important thing is that we're in an active pattern so there will continue to be storm chances. We had a period in October and November where it rained like twice in a 60 day span.

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just a minor shift south over the last 18 hours for the ICON.

Just a less reliable model correcting South. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

If the lobe wasn't there in Maine this would been a normal SWFE and trend north .

The lobe is there but will it weaken just enough??.models cant predict the exact metrics of a upper low all the time.

[mikem81]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If the lobe wasn't there in Maine this would been a normal SWFE and trend north .

What hours is this lobe forming and what do we look for in coming runs? we need some more analysis as opposed to wishful thinking 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Nothing worse than cold and dry and storms missing to the south. My forecast highs the next 7 days are 36, 32,34, 29,29, 30,28 and zero precip. Ugh. 

[EastonSN+]

On a side note on the weather channel they mentioned that if Kansas City gets a foot it would be the first time since the 1960s wow.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Not that anyone is following the clipper moving thru,but we might get some snow later on from that, in fact this might be the perverbial "right under the radar snow". 

[donsutherland1]

Just so there is no confusion, the evolving 500 mb pattern was not a classic KU storm pattern for January, particularly the first half of January. Instead, it was one that favored moderate and localized significant snow events if things came together.

The possible heavier snow showers later today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the upcoming storm that will favor the Washington, DC-Baltimore areas shows that the potential of this pattern could be realized. Unfortunately, central NJ northward won't benefit through at least the next 7-10 days. The power of the strong and rapidly strengthening block will limit opportunities until that block begins to relax. Whether there will be sufficient short waves and how the synoptic details come together at that point will determine whether NYC to Boston could benefit down the road. Right now, that's not assured, which is frustrating for snow lovers given that parts of this region are experiencing their worst two-year snow drought on record.

A week ago, things looked more promising for a larger part of the East when the AO was forecast to bottom out near or just above -3. Now, it's forecast to dive to near -4. Moreover, it's forecast to do so very rapidly. It's that factor that a lot of the commentators on social media missed in automatically assuming that this event would "trend" north. Things did shift gradually northward for a time over several model cycles, but IMO, as the models began showing the evolving deeper block overnight (the AO fell from -1.461 to -2.085), that shift rapidly corrected.

Overall, the pattern for the Sunday-Monday storm has characteristics of Clusters 2 and 5 from Washington, DC's 6"+ January snowstorms in the eastern CONUS. It is not a perfect match for either cluster, but has enough similarity to provide insight.

The trailing trough is too far south relative to NYC's 6"+ patterns. That's why I felt, and still feel, that snowfall amounts could fall off sharply once one gets north of Philadelphia and that NYC would be limited to a light snowfall. A lot would have to change for this idea to be invalid. The block is the big driver and it's the block that would need to change (weaker, farther north). At the current timeframe, the guidance is quite skillful when it comes to such big picture features.

Finally, if New York City receives no measurable snowfall (still not a done deal, but certainly plausible), this wouldn't be the first January snowstorm to dump 6" or more in Washington, DC while bringing no measurable snowfall to NYC. The list is below:

January 11-12, 1904: Washington, DC: 6.0"; New York City: None
January 23-25, 1940: Washington, DC: 9.5"; New York City: Trace
January 30, 2010: Washington, DC: 6.4"; New York City: None
January 12-14, 2019: Washington, DC: 10.3"; New York City: Trace
January 3, 2022: Washington, DC: 6.9"; New York City: None

Highest Washington, DC snowfall with none in NYC: 8.4", March 9-10, 1999

Highest Washington, DC snowfall with a trace in NYC: 17.8", February 5-6, 2010, which also brought 28.5" to Philadelphia

[Bxstormwatcher360]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Just so there is no confusion, the evolving 500 mb pattern was not a classic KU storm pattern for January, particularly the first half of January. Instead, it was one that favored moderate and localized significant snow events if things came together.

The possible heavier snow showers later today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the upcoming storm that will favor the Washington, DC-Baltimore areas shows that the potential of this pattern could be realized. Unfortunately, central NJ northward won't benefit through at least the next 7-10 days. The power of the strong and rapidly strengthening block will limit opportunities until that block begins to relax. Whether there will be sufficient short waves and how the synoptic details come together at that point will determine whether NYC to Boston could benefit down the road. Right now, that's not assured, which is frustrating for snow lovers given that parts of this region are experiencing their worst two-year snow drought on record.

A week ago, things looked more promising for a larger part of the East when the AO was forecast to bottom out near or just above -3. Now, it's forecast to dive to near -4. Moreover, it's forecast to do so very rapidly. It's that factor that a lot of the commentators on social media missed in automatically assuming that this event would "trend" north. Things did shift gradually northward for a time over several model cycles, but IMO, as the models began showing the evolving deeper block overnight (the AO fell from -1.461 to -2.085), that shift rapidly corrected.

Overall, the pattern for the Sunday-Monday storm has characteristics of Clusters 2 and 5 from Washington, DC's 6"+ January snowstorms in the eastern CONUS. It is not a perfect match for either cluster, but has enough similarity to provide insight.

The trailing trough is too far south relative to NYC's 6"+ patterns. That's why I felt, and still feel, that snowfall amounts could fall off sharply once one gets north of Philadelphia and that NYC would be limited to a light snowfall. A lot would have to change for this idea to be invalid. The block is the big driver and it's the block that would need to change (weaker, farther north). At the current timeframe, the guidance is quite skillful when it comes to such big picture features.

Finally, if New York City receives no measurable snowfall (still not a done deal, but certainly plausible), this wouldn't be the first January snowstorm to dump 6" or more in Washington, DC while bringing no measurable snowfall to NYC. The list is below:

January 11-12, 1904: Washington, DC: 6.0"; New York City: None
January 23-25, 1940: Washington, DC: 9.5"; New York City: Trace
January 30, 2010: Washington, DC: 6.4"; New York City: None
January 12-14, 2019: Washington, DC: 10.3"; New York City: Trace
January 3, 2022: Washington, DC: 6.9"; New York City: None

Highest Washington, DC snowfall with none in NYC: 8.4", March 9-10, 1999

Highest Washington, DC snowfall with a trace in NYC: 17.8", February 5-6, 2010, which also brought 28.5" to Philadelphia

Currently the blocking is looking a bit weaker and north then modeled for today,not sure if it translates in a few days but if todays snow showers make it to nyc then i think the models might be overdoing the blocking itself.

[MJO812]

Slight tick on gfs

[Dark Star]

50 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s the same people living in H5 at 300 hours

Dunno about epic pattern failure.  It's just one of those east to west precip shields with a cold dome to the north.  It would be pert near impossible for the snow to move north.  It was fun to track it from far out, but now that the models are getting a better grasp, it doesn't look like for us.  The best we could hope for is a light covering?

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

What hours is this lobe forming and what do we look for in coming runs? we need some more analysis as opposed to wishful thinking 

You can loop it through on the model runs, it’s the vorticity max and lower heights that develop over western Quebec as our storm is moving east. That increases the resistance to the storm moving north, dampens it out (weakens it), and rushes dry air south. That lobe might weaken or move away, but it’s most responsible for killing our chances with this storm. 

[MJO812]

So close on the gfs

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

You can loop it through on the model runs, it’s the vorticity max and lower heights that develop over western Quebec as our storm is moving east. That increases the resistance to the storm moving north, dampens it out (weakens it), and rushes dry air south. That lobe might weaken or move away, but it’s most responsible for killing our chances with this storm. 

Can you post it on the H5 map?

[MJO812]

This is pain 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

So close on the gfs

Its coming. Little by little. I mentioned the blocking being weaker then modeled. That possibility is still there 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Dunno about epic pattern failure.  It's just one of those east to west precip shields with a cold dome to the north.  It would be pert near impossible for the snow to move north.  It was fun to track it from far out, but now that the models are getting a better grasp, it doesn't look like for us.  The best we could hope for is a light covering?

We need the gradual ticking back north the final 48-60 hours if maybe that vort relaxes or timing change and then need help from frontogenesis up on the far north end of the snow shield.  That probably will happen somewhere but we'd need the system to be more north than even say the 12Z RGEM was with the snow

[Bxstormwatcher360]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is pain 

Reminds me of the storm that wasnt unless you were in staten island. Bronx had  a inch or 2.. si almost a foot .. the cutoff was nasty!!

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Currently the blocking is looking a bit weaker and north then modeled for today,not sure if it translates in a few days but if todays snow showers make it to nyc then i think the models might be overdoing the blocking itself.

I think there's room for some marginal adjustments, but this very likely won't be a moderate, much less, significant snowfall for the Greater NYC area.