Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The deeper/stronger S/W solutions are also the slower ones, so it's probably a double benefit in the stronger WAA push and the confluence having more time to exit. CMC/UK look a lot weaker and more progressive with it. So maybe when the S/W comes onshore tomorrow we'll finally have better consensus. The UK fringing BWI for crying out loud wasn't what I wanted. 

I found it funny that the ICON slowed down but was somehow more south vs 18z, albeit it was not a huge difference.  The tendency in the last 15-20 years is when in doubt on what a S/W will do over the rockies/Midwest always go stronger and 7 out of 10 you'll be right.  Everything seems to amp up now

[RU848789]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's usually a wild ride for us in the several days before a snow event with the flip flopping models. I do think the UKMET solution is extremely unlikely though. As Snowgoose said, it's ridiculously progressive with the shortwave. I think at the very least our area will see a light accumulating snow like the CMC shows, but hopefully something a little more significant. Euro in an hour will be interesting to see. 

I still like 1-3/2-4" for CNJ, which is what we're still seeing for the NBM, which actually got a little snowier for CNJ at 01Z vs. 19Z.  Of course, a blend will miss if one of the outliers is on to something and can be terribly wrong, but major outliers rarely verify, so it'll usually at least be in the ballpark, unless we see some huge shift by all the models, which has never happened before 3+ days before an event, lol.  

[Stormlover74]

Euro south. Oh well

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro south. Oh well

It’s my fault. I moved the snowblower to the front of the garage earlier in the week. My apologies. 
 

I’ll move it back tomorrow. 

[Franklin0529]

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I still like 1-3/2-4" for CNJ, which is what we're still seeing for the NBM, which actually got a little snowier for CNJ at 01Z vs. 19Z.  Of course, a blend will miss if one of the outliers is on to something and can be terribly wrong, but major outliers rarely verify, so it'll usually at least be in the ballpark, unless we see some huge shift by all the models, which has never happened before 3+ days before an event, lol.  

Euro went way south 

[brooklynwx99]

seems like we have this pinned down

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro south. Oh well

Euro isn't the same great model as it use to be. Hope it's wrong. 

[winterwx21]

GFS a significant snowstorm while Euro just brushes us with a little light snow. Crazy, but we're used to it. Very often we see these huge model differences 3 to 4 days before an event. You'd hope to have a good idea 3 to 4 days before an event, but very often we have to wait until 48 hours before the event and sometimes it takes until the day before. Who the heck knows at this point. Hopefully the models will be in agreement tomorrow night. 

[RU848789]

Every pro here and on 33andrain and elsewhere is scratching their heads over what to make of all of this now that the Euro joined the UK as misses for our forum, meaning I have no shot of figuring anything useful out at this time. Even using the NBM Model Blend is probably a bad idea when there are two very distinct camps like this. One can blend them and get a moderate snowfall for our area, but the outcome is just as likely now to be one camp or the other. FWIW, the NBM is about the same as it was at 18Z.

I don't envy forecasters for this one. At this point I would probably just punt and wait for better model consensus and use the NBM which still says 1-3"/2-4" for CNJ (less north and more south), but I'd note that <1" (or even nada) and 3-6" are still on the table.  Crazy.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Every pro here and on 33andrain and elsewhere is scratching their heads over what to make of all of this, meaning I have no shot of figuring anything useful out at this time. Even using the NBM Model Blend is probably a bad idea when there are two very distinct camps like this. One can blend them and get a moderate snowfall for our area, but the outcome is just as likely now to be one camp or the other. FWIW, the NBM is about the same as it was at 18Z.

I don't envy forecasters for this one. At this point I would probably just punt and wait for better model consensus and use the NBM which still says 1-3"/2-4" for CNJ (less north and more south), but I'd note that <1" (or even nada) and 3-6" are still on the table.  Crazy.

Or pull a Janice Huff and call for flurries 

[RU848789]

Wasn't sure where to post this HRRR comparison of 18Z and 0Z for tomorrow's little storm in SNJ/SEPA/DE, but in the vein of model mayhem, here's reason #993 to not trust the HRRR beyond 24 hours, lol...

[Snowlover11]

glad to see we have all models on board…NOT!

[winterwx21]

31 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Every pro here and on 33andrain and elsewhere is scratching their heads over what to make of all of this now that the Euro joined the UK as misses for our forum, meaning I have no shot of figuring anything useful out at this time. Even using the NBM Model Blend is probably a bad idea when there are two very distinct camps like this. One can blend them and get a moderate snowfall for our area, but the outcome is just as likely now to be one camp or the other. FWIW, the NBM is about the same as it was at 18Z.

I don't envy forecasters for this one. At this point I would probably just punt and wait for better model consensus and use the NBM which still says 1-3"/2-4" for CNJ (less north and more south), but I'd note that <1" (or even nada) and 3-6" are still on the table.  Crazy.

It sucks that this happens very often in the days before winter storm threats. I wish the model technology was better. 

[winterwx21]

47 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Wasn't sure where to post this HRRR comparison of 18Z and 0Z for tomorrow's little storm in SNJ/SEPA/DE, but in the vein of model mayhem, here's reason #993 to not trust the HRRR beyond 24 hours, lol...

Figured the HRRR was off its rocker on the 18z run since no other model guidance showed anything like that. I doubt there will be anything more than a coating on colder surfaces in most spots down there. 

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

31 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Wasn't sure where to post this HRRR comparison of 18Z and 0Z for tomorrow's little storm in SNJ/SEPA/DE, but in the vein of model mayhem, here's reason #993 to not trust the HRRR beyond 24 hours, lol...

Hey that's 2" for my house in CNJ, I TAKE. LOL. not gonna happen....

[RU848789]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Hey that's 2" for my house in CNJ, I TAKE. LOL. not gonna happen....

Ya never know.  My guess is 75% of the area under advisories gets <1", but that a few locations that get sustained banding get up to 2", but those are very hard to predict.  

 

[wdrag]

I'll adjust the headline tomorrow---for now its good enough and I've no major changes in my own view of what is coming: 1/4-2" CP  and north of I80 in NNJ with nil near or just north of I84 in NYS-CT. 

Main message and my own opinion-you take your chances but if I were going to Philly-DC Monday morning I'd plan for delays and probably many cancellations and prepare to get in and out of there Sunday or Tuesday, rather than slicing it too thin.  Airports potentially a mess, especially getting aircraft in from Missouri to Ohio.  

Here's some NWS guidance that supports my contention. Again, do as you wish. Below is the NWS chance of 4+" through 7AM Monday, and the actual NWS snowfall forecast through 7PM Sunday, and the probabilstic map for moderate impact Monday (red and yellow 40-70% chance Monday). 

[Allsnow]

06z euro going to be south of 00z. This threat is on life support now. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

06z euro going to be south of 00z. This threat is on life support now. 

Looks like ukmet 

best snows south of dca 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like ukmet 

best snows south of dca 

Agree

[MJO812]

Where is the north trend when we need it?

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Where is the north trend when we need it?

We had it and lost it

[Snowlover11]

roadtrip to cape may?

[MJO812]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

roadtrip to cape may?

Even they might be too far north 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We had it and lost it

Still some time but time is ticking. Blame the gefs and the Icon along with the 1 run of the 18z Euro for sucking us back in.

O and also Forky being positive 

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Why?  It was an outlier at 18Z north, so coming back a little bit south is no surprise; it's still likely going to be the furthest north of the 0Z models.  

This is what I was fearing. Maybe it comes back North a bit today but running out of time.

[WestBabylonWeather]

It’s going to trend back north the waffling song and dance happens 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is what I was fearing. Maybe it comes back North a bit today but running out of time.

The goal post now is between the 00z gfs and 06z euro.  If we do get a trend back north it won’t be farther north then the overnight gfs run 

[jm1220]

I’m giving this one less than 10% for anything more than a car topper for NYC/LI/I-80 corridor. We need sustained N trends on all the major modeling today as the shortwave finally gets sampled. That’s the one last hope I think we have. 

[North and West]

I like checking this out in the morning and running through hundreds of posts and learning that the models and forecasts basically say…




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