Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[Allsnow]

 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is a SWFE.  Most people don’t realize that because it’s so far south relative to normal.  They usually do not show any northward movement that is notable til the final 72-84 hours most of the time and sometimes not til the final 48.  I had said by the time this was 96 or so out we wanted the jackpot to be DC preferably or northern to central VA.  If it was there we’d be in good position to get snow, albeit not the jackpot.  I still feel the jackpot zone in the end though might end up southern PA to southern NJ.  So maybe a 50 mile shift from what we currently see 

I'll take that, thanks for guaranteeing that outcome, lol.  

[Stormlover74]

Icon south 

[mikem81]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Icon south 

Nope. Slower 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Nope. Slower 

Still south with the heaviest accumulations 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Icon south 

 

[jdj5211]

End of the 0z NAM run looked good.....things seem to be trending north still.....0z GFS and Euro will be telling

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still south with the heaviest accumulations 

Not really, it actually all came north 

[winterwx21]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

End of the 0z NAM run looked good.....things seem to be trending north still.....0z GFS and Euro will be telling

Yeah I was just gonna mention that too. I know we don't put much stock in long range NAM, but it certainly looks good at hour 84. 

[EastonSN+]

If you look at Connecticut Northwest New Jersey and Pennsylvania the precept shield definitely moved South. Also check Washington DC.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Icon south 

Sunk a bit south but still a good hit 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Sunk a bit south but still a good hit 

More concerned that the trends might be reversing

[Allsnow]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

More concerned that the trends might be reversing

It’s getting to the point where you won’t see massive changes in the TPV. I expect a slight shift north over the weekend. The euro has definitely been very steady with this the past 24 hours 

[mannynyc]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

More concerned that the trends might be reversing

This is not a trend reversing 

[MJO812]

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

congrats philly

[RU848789]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

More concerned that the trends might be reversing

Why?  It was an outlier at 18Z north, so coming back a little bit south is no surprise; it's still likely going to be the furthest north of the 0Z models.  

[Irish]

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Icon south 

 

24 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Not really, it actually all came north 

Windshield wiper effect? 

[MJO812]

Gfs so far is more amped out west and slower.

[Irish]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs so far is more amped out west and slower.

Is that a negative?

[MJO812]

Just now, Irish said:

Is that a negative?

No

[MJO812]

Yep north 

[jdj5211]

GFS amped and deepening precip shield further to the north....should be a good hit coming....

[brooklynwx99]

holy crap what a trend 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

GFS amped and deepening precip shield further to the north....should be a good hit coming....

Yep

Rain in SNJ

[Franklin0529]

Getting some coastal love too. She's coming ladies and gents!! Buckle up

[cleetussnow]

Little better

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Getting some coastal love too. She's coming ladies and gents!! Buckle up

Nice coastal enhancement

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap what a trend 

Look at that bowling ball

 

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Look at that bowling ball

 

Storm has slowed down on all the models allowing it to dig further south . With that the confluence has a chance to leave quicker.