Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

The 18z euro is out?

I meant the 12z Euro run. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The 18z euro is out?

No but 12z wasn't great

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs has some really amped members 

Most Have plowable snow into nyc now

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This is why I said a few days ago a southeast ridge would help us in this setup 

These set ups in recent years have been a delicate balancing act. The original runs had no system out front so this storm was free to run to the Lakes and had P-Type issues for NYC. Then models started suddenly showing a new system developing off the East Coast over this weekend. The first response was then full suppression. Then the transient Southeast Ride with more wave spacing started showing up. The storm track pattern since 18-19 with the exception of 20-21 and Jan 22 have really made us work hard for every inch of snow.

[Allsnow]

Just now, bluewave said:

These set ups in recent years have been a delicate balancing act. The original runs had no system out front so this storm was free to run to the Lakes and had P-Type issues for NYC. Then models started suddenly showing a new system developing off the East Coast over this weekend. The first response was then full suppression. Then the transient Southeast Ride with more wave spacing started showing up. The storm track pattern since 18-19 with the exception of 20-21 and Jan 22 have really made us work hard for every inch of snow.

Agreed. 

[Allsnow]

 

[North and West]

i think we know where this is going

Disappointment City?


.

[Allsnow]

Euro bumped north. 2 inch line to nyc 

[Allsnow]

[ForestHillWx]

Real close to a nice little event. 2-3” and adjust upward; MMU south. 

[psv88]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

What will get you on board?

Blizzard warning 

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro bumped north. 2 inch line to nyc 

more favorable interaction with the TPV lobe

[Superstorm]

Barely. I went from 4.2 to 4.7


.

[psv88]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Barely. I went from 4.2 to 4.7


.

Flakes?

[Superstorm]

Flakes?

lol


.

[cleetussnow]

The thing hits the confluence wall above my house. 

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

The thing hits the confluence wall above my house. 

for now...

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think we know where this is going

Yup, SE.  

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yup, SE.  

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Yup, SE.  

[EastonSN+]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

more favorable interaction with the TPV lobe

I will be honest I was hoping for a more sizable shift North or a larger precipitation shield.

[RU848789]

Very nice for our area to see the 18Z GFS, ICON and Euro continuing to move the snow/precip shield further north putting CNJ potentially in line for 2-4" and NYC for 1-3" (or possibly more...or less)...and to see the NBM do a further increase for northern areas. Still 3+ days to sweat it though and we know what can happen in 3 days. Here's the Euro and NBM at 12/18Z.  

 

[Allsnow]

[kat5hurricane]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest I was hoping for a more sizable shift North or a larger precipitation shield.

I think there's a cap to how far north this can get considering the strength of the confluence. It's more than likely a 2-3 max sort of deal around NYC and 1-2 seems more likely, this is probably a Mid Atlantic special. Either way, whatever falls will stick around for a while so it'll feel like winter at least.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I think there's a cap to how far north this can get considering the strength of the confluence. It's more than likely a 2-3 max sort of deal around NYC and 1-2 seems more likely, this is probably a Mid Atlantic special. Either way, whatever falls will stick around for a while so it'll feel like winter at least.

If the confluence weakens we’ll continue to see ticks north. We have to see this trend continue tonight/tomorrow. 

[LVblizzard]

21z SREF mean is waaaaayyyyy north. Looks like the ICON.

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Blizzard warning 

lol - Icon gives me 7” (10:1) on 18z.  This is starting to remind of the system that produced the I78 death band last year.  The gradient was such that you could find a 4” accumulation difference on opposite ends of a town just south of me.  Either way there will be a big time gradient with it.

[RU848789]

12 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

lol - Icon gives me 7” (10:1) on 18z.  This is starting to remind of the system that produced the I78 death band last year.  The gradient was such that you could find a 4” accumulation difference on opposite ends of a town just south of me.  Either way there will be a big time gradient with it.

11.25" - not a top 10 storm, accumulation-wise, but a top 5 storm, experience-wise, partly because of the surprise element and partly because of the incredible 3-4" per hour rates for most of 2 hours.  Different setup and I doubt we'll see that kind of gradient on both sides of a very narrow band.  

[Franklin0529]

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

11.25" - not a top 10 storm, accumulation-wise, but a top 5 storm, experience-wise, partly because of the surprise element and partly because of the incredible 3-4" per hour rates for most of 2 hours.  Different setup and I doubt we'll see that kind of gradient on both sides of a very narrow band.  

Man I was in hazlet during that storm last year. I never seen it snow so hard in my life.  Got 10" in a couple hrs

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I will be honest I was hoping for a more sizable shift North or a larger precipitation shield.

This is a SWFE.  Most people don’t realize that because it’s so far south relative to normal.  They usually do not show any northward movement that is notable til the final 72-84 hours most of the time and sometimes not til the final 48.  I had said by the time this was 96 or so out we wanted the jackpot to be DC preferably or northern to central VA.  If it was there we’d be in good position to get snow, albeit not the jackpot.  I still feel the jackpot zone in the end though might end up southern PA to southern NJ.  So maybe a 50 mile shift from what we currently see