MJO812 Posted Thursday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:19 PM 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: Agreed. We’ve seen this show before. Maybe we’ll see a dusting or so on the island but that block is too far south. Yes we have and we have been screwed so many times with north trends . This time we will not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Thursday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:30 PM 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes we have and we have been screwed so many times with north trends . This time we will not. February 2010 says hold my beer. There was no north trend with that strong block. This may end up similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:49 PM 2 events might miss us to our south Insane This is Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:50 PM 18 minutes ago, psv88 said: February 2010 says hold my beer. There was no north trend with that strong block. This may end up similar The NAO was deeply negative. ( unless I'm wrong ) This time it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted Thursday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:54 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The NAO was deeply negative. ( unless I'm wrong ) This time it's not. That was an absolutely crazy miss. My parents in northern Virginia received 28 inches and I got nothing in northern Jersey. NYC and Jersey made up for it with Boxing Day blizzard 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:55 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: The NAO was deeply negative. ( unless I'm wrong ) This time it's not. If we have strong enough confluence and northerly flow in the mid levels to our north driving in dry mid level air, it doesn’t matter how officially negative the NAO is. We have a strong 50-50 low and PV lobe to our north which have to weaken or move out of the way or we get zilch. A stronger S/W will help but that will be weakening as well as it moves east into the shredder created by the big upper low to our NE. That’s what causes the ESE leaning precip shield, that’s how you can tell confluence and dry air are crushing it and weakening the S/W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:57 PM 1 minute ago, Jersey Andrew said: That was an absolutely crazy miss. My parents in northern Virginia received 28 inches and I got nothing in northern Jersey. NYC and Jersey made up for it with Boxing Day blizzard 2010. I got 40 inches that month of Feb 2010. NYC saw 2 more snowstorms after that ( mid and late February) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted Thursday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:02 PM This has the potential to give a lot of us the most snow we've seen since January 2022 (I'm talking about central coastal NJ who have gotten screwed) It would only take slightly more than an inch at my place to be specific in Point Beach to beat 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 single storm snow total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:20 PM 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The NAO was deeply negative. ( unless I'm wrong ) This time it's not. LI is a bad spot to be when we have strong confluence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Thursday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:38 PM I know this is the 1/6 thread, but didn't know where to put the latest on tomorrow's little shortwave that could...advisories are actually up for 1-2" from Philly metro to about AC and SW of there in PA/DE/MD/NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:03 PM 23 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I know this is the 1/6 thread, but didn't know where to put the latest on tomorrow's little shortwave that could...advisories are actually up for 1-2" from Philly metro to about AC and SW of there in PA/DE/MD/NJ. Probably a really nice stretch coming up for BWI-ACY, maybe 15” in those areas by the time Monday’s done. While some places in SNE have 1” or less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:12 PM 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Probably a really nice stretch coming up for BWI-ACY, maybe 15” in those areas by the time Monday’s done. While some places in SNE have 1” or less. Good for them… that area hasn’t had a winter day since 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Thursday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:14 PM Looking at the icon at 78 and you would think for sure a good storm is coming. Confluence just eats it up. Southern NJ does really well in set tups like these. edit: and this time it wasn’t all eaten lol. Just another solution at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 09:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:15 PM Icon 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:16 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Icon Congrats @psv88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Thursday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:16 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Icon Have a snow map with that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 09:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:17 PM Just now, NEG NAO said: Have a snow map with that ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 09:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:17 PM @jm1220 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Thursday at 09:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:17 PM I tend to ignore the ICON once inside 96. It actually seems to perform better on the end result often times beyond that, once inside it can do wild stuff. The NAM had a classic NAM run at 18Z for sure, not in a good way unless you're in a small niche of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 09:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:20 PM 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I tend to ignore the ICON once inside 96. It actually seems to perform better on the end result often times beyond that, once inside it can do wild stuff. The NAM had a classic NAM run at 18Z for sure, not in a good way unless you're in a small niche of MD. All the models trended better at h5 at 12z. Can't ignore it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Thursday at 09:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:20 PM 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Congrats @psv88 Hard sell. Think we get dusting to an inch here. Looking good for NJ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM Just now, psv88 said: Hard sell. Think we get dusting to an inch here. Looking good for NJ What will get you on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:21 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon will lead the way ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Thursday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:26 PM in the icon we trust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Thursday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:33 PM 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What will get you on board? Not the icon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Thursday at 09:45 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:45 PM Am negative Nelly on the ICON... I normally dont like to be negative on events except for perspective. Are we really going to see a 990MB low east of NJ Monday evening? Weaken it and therefore weaken the northward waa surge. I hope its right but I cant count on it. At east its this far north but that could all be Sfc Pres related. By the way a strip of watches are out now Plains to OV. My guess it may be hard to get aircraft out of some of these Watch areas into PHLLy-DCA Monday morning. If I was flying PHl-DCA ..I'd get on a flight Sunday or Tuesday to ensure destination nearly on time (ensure fewer cancels). Just my 2c. 12z/2 NAEFS 24 hr 5MM keeps edging north to near NYC now... it has some variability but so far so good. I don't want to see that ebb south the next couple of days. 5mm/25mm = 0.2" qpf... again it might still only be 0.01 but trend so far, is our friend... as many have oft said...northern fringe. New 19z/2 BOM qpf attached. Good sign but NOT a done deal... There is something WPC and local WFO's RE looking at that I have to respect on qpf being almost nil north of I80 on their graphic. In other words, BOM ICON NAEFS may be too bullish... me I'm steady good with 1/4-2" I80 north-NYC, maybe lucky 3" sw LI. Melting e LI. This could be wasted words... will check back tonight at 730P, and again tomorrow at 730A. Fingers crossed but hope doesn't do it... dynamics - confluences- short wave stronger and longer can. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:45 PM 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What will get you on board? If other models tonight like the Euro get on board, I’ll buy that something might happen here (meaning I-80 corridor/latitude). If not this run is likely a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:52 PM Gfs looks like it's coming north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Thursday at 09:54 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:54 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs looks like it's coming north It’s happening 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs looks like it's coming north Still early in the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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