Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[Allsnow]

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Northern fringe is where I want to be 4 days out. That’s just experience. 

[Stormlover74]

Ukie slight tick north 

Crushes delmarva

[forkyfork]

[forkyfork]

23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

do you think there is still a possibility of everything trending south again ?

not that likely imo

[MJO812]

Amped up members 

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Amped up members 

Nyc tickles rain on some of those members 

[MJO812]

[RU848789]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie slight tick north 

Crushes delmarva

3" line moved ~30 miles N and the ~1" line moved 10-15 miles N.  Progress.

[mikem81]

WFIW, the JMA at 72 also looks better than its prior run (which was already decent) with higher heights out east in front of the storm

[Allsnow]

I think the euro creeps north this run. Sw stronger and confluence a bit less 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Allsnow said:

I think the euro creeps north this run. Sw stronger and confluence a bit less 

Yup 

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup 

 

Mostly the same ...<.1"

[WestBabylonWeather]

It being around the same isn’t the point. It’s the trending 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mostly the same ...<.1"

Snow shield came north but the confluence ate away at it around the metro 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mostly the same ...<.1"

Heavier precip is north 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mostly the same ...<.1"

That ESE precip lean tells the story. Need the confluence out of the way. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That ESE precip lean tells the story. Need the confluence out of the way. 

Pretty much.

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

There was an event last January around this time of the month. I believe I got 2 here in Metuchen while NYC got around an inch. Phl and snj did the best with 3-6. Wouldn’t be shocked if thats how this plays out Monday 

This is how it's looking right now, and I'd be ok with that. Give me 2 inches Monday and I'll be happy. It would feel like deep winter with snow on the ground and cold weather all next week. 

Of course we're still almost 4 days out, so plenty of time for this to trend in our direction. Hopefully we'll see the confluence trend weaker and we can get a north bump. 

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Snow shield came north but the confluence ate away at it around the metro 

Honestly not a bad spot to be a few days out. Agreed that with strong high to the north this could keep trending more amped/north. 

[psv88]

It’s crazy how consistent the models are whenever they show us getting screwed. Barely changed in days!

[jm1220]

I’m about done with this one unless we see substantial changes. Trenton to Belmar on south are probably good for at least 1-3”. The confluence has to weaken significantly for much to get north of that line. Otherwise it will keep getting shunted/crushed ESE like models are mostly showing. And they often don’t account enough for the dry air to be overcome, so those models showing 1-2” in NYC might just be showing virga or very light snow reaching the ground. The N edge of these confluence deals are always sharp, there won’t be a gradual end to the snow. Where the upper flow becomes westerly or northerly around the PV lobe/50-50 low the snow will abruptly shut off. The storm can be as moist laden as it wants, it needs the southerly upper air flow to get here. 

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m about done with this one unless we see substantial changes. Trenton to Belmar on south are probably good for at least 1-3”. The confluence has to weaken significantly for much to get north of that line. Otherwise it will keep getting shunted/crushed ESE like models are mostly showing. And they often don’t account enough for the dry air to be overcome, so those models showing 1-2” in NYC might just be showing virga or very light snow reaching the ground. The N edge of these confluence deals are always sharp, there won’t be a gradual end to the snow. Where the upper flow becomes westerly or northerly around the PV lobe/50-50 low the snow will abruptly shut off. The storm can be as moist laden as it wants, it needs the southerly upper air flow to get here. 

Agreed. We’ve seen this show before. Maybe we’ll see a dusting or so on the island but that block is too far south. 

[mikem81]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m about done with this one unless we see substantial changes. Trenton to Belmar on south are probably good for at least 1-3”. The confluence has to weaken significantly for much to get north of that line. Otherwise it will keep getting shunted/crushed ESE like models are mostly showing. And they often don’t account enough for the dry air to be overcome, so those models showing 1-2” in NYC might just be showing virga or very light snow reaching the ground. The N edge of these confluence deals are always sharp, there won’t be a gradual end to the snow. Where the upper flow becomes westerly or northerly around the PV lobe/50-50 low the snow will abruptly shut off. The storm can be as moist laden as it wants, it needs the southerly upper air flow to get here. 

Never give up before the NAM is even in range...

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Snow shield came north but the confluence ate away at it around the metro 

This is reminding me of that first, early 1/22 storm that plastered ACY for 14 inches while I got nothing but virga in Toms River. I should do better than that here, but the general point I think is the concern about virga on the north end - it seems similar enough to me.

Confluence would really have to abate for this thing to come much more north, or it would have to amplify much more basically, yes? I would probably just think a few more minor wiggles at this stage, but I'm much more of a novice with this stuff than you guys.

Still fingers crossed a few flakes fly across the metro, at the very least.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Agreed. We’ve seen this show before. Maybe we’ll see a dusting or so on the island but that block is too far south. 

Best to hope for the 10% chance that we see those changes but accept the 90% chance we just have clouds/flurries while DC to Philly clean up. Much as it sucks, not much will happen here until this suppress-to-crap blocking pattern clears up, and then we have to hope there’s a window where we can score before we go back to the regular cutters pattern. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Never give up before the NAM is even in range...

Not totally given up but I wouldn’t play the odds on this one for sure. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Best to hope for the 10% chance that we see those changes but accept the 90% chance we just have clouds/flurries while DC to Philly clean up. Much as it sucks, not much will happen here until this suppress-to-crap blocking pattern clears up, and then we have to hope there’s a window where we can score before we go back to the regular cutters pattern. 

 

[RU848789]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m about done with this one unless we see substantial changes. Trenton to Belmar on south are probably good for at least 1-3”. The confluence has to weaken significantly for much to get north of that line. Otherwise it will keep getting shunted/crushed ESE like models are mostly showing. And they often don’t account enough for the dry air to be overcome, so those models showing 1-2” in NYC might just be showing virga or very light snow reaching the ground. The N edge of these confluence deals are always sharp, there won’t be a gradual end to the snow. Where the upper flow becomes westerly or northerly around the PV lobe/50-50 low the snow will abruptly shut off. The storm can be as moist laden as it wants, it needs the southerly upper air flow to get here. 

I get the confluence concerns, but I think you're underdoing it for CNJ.  I would be surprised if the 1" line isn't at least as far north as 78, meaning most of CNJ south of there would get 1-3" with ~3" being down towards Trenton to Belmar.  Most models are showing that and the NBM is showing more, including 1-2" for NYC.  

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Not totally given up but I wouldn’t play the odds on this one for sure. 

We still have time…