Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

This is going to be a huge storm. Also we need to see if precip makes it to chicago,if it snows there,it will likely snow here .

Modles say no but have to see what the northern extent is.

[RU848789]

Very interesting that the NWS bumped snowfall back up for areas N of 276/195, including CNJ/NNJ/NEPA/NYC, with their 4 am forecast, as per the map below; it's fairly similar to the Channel 7 forecast.  Their 1" line moved from just south of 78 to about 80, except for NENJ (Union/Essex/Hudson) and NYC/LI, where <1" is forecast, and their 2" line is now from about Frenchtown to Sea Bright and the 3" line is along 276/195 (was 10-15 miles south of there); south of that 3" line very little change.  The NWS discussion doesn't have the usual "model discussion" section at 4 am.  In contrast, TWC has the 1" line along 276/195 with <1" north of there and the 3" line from about Wilmington to AC, as do others, while News12NJ is between the two camps with their 1" line from about Frenchtown to Sea Bright and their 3" line from Philly to LBI with 3-6" south of there.  

Bust potential is pretty high, IMO, as the global models at 0Z last night and 6Z this morning continue to show much less snow than this across the board, as all of you know, with generally <1" N of 276/195 and even only an inch or two for the Phillly/SNJ area; they must be leaning more towards the meso/CAM models, like the NAM3K, HRRR, RAP, SRERs, etc., which show amounts similar to the NWS map (or even more).  From a meteorological perspective, this is a fascinating conundrum to have these two camps so far apart, but from a "client" perspective it's very frustrating to have such low confidence in the NWS forecast.  

[Irish]

1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

If we're being honest, that goes for 100% of the forum to some extent.  You're telling me that Walt and Don haven't ever gone back to take a peek after throwing in the towel?*  Look where we are people!

*You guys are the best, just having some fun lol

Absolutely, that's how I know!  

[mikem81]

I am not following anyone who think this is a storm for our area. I don’t even see any short term models disagreeing with the globals unless it’s over a half inch or zero. I really hope I am wrong but no model shows snow in Chicago today and nothing showing snow in NYC tomorrow other than virga right now. Hope the models are wrong but we should focus on next weekend 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Modles say no but have to see what the northern extent is.

If you get a dusting/coating with this tomorrow, consider it a win. The floor is just virga, which I think is what all areas north and west of the city see….

[Bxstormwatcher360]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If you get a dusting/coating with this tomorrow, consider it a win. The floor is just virga, which I think is what all areas north and west of the city see….

Either way should be interesting to watch it play out,im firmly on the north trend though. It's a great battle between barometric pressures,so who knows.

[wdrag]

I like the JM observation on HRRR especially valuable inside of 24 hours,  but somewhat speculative maybe too amped beyond 24 hours. I think that is true..added the Philly area qpf and snowfall about 48 hours ago... HRRR and HREF too amped.  RDPS too far south and so it was less.  There was thunder in the DC area with that 48 hours ago event (late Friday afternoon).

 

Here's the resultant qpf and snowfall per CoCoRaHs. 

[SnowGoose69]

The 3k NAM/HRRR now are similar, 12K not as far north with a 3-5 hour period where snow can reach metro NYC.  This tells me again it may be jet induced in some manner because there is no notable fgen showing up that far north.  Still a question if there may be too much virga, the surface temp/dp spread is not too huge on models at least but have to saturate areas above that

[RU848789]

12Z NAM and NAM3K and HRRR backed off a fair amount on snow, especially towards Philly, although they're still a lot snowier than most of the globals.  Wonder if the mesos/CAMs are starting to cave to the globals today at 12Z.  

[North and West]

I’ve been watching these long enough and been blessed to have experienced really good storms at my home and gone through others that have missed; as I’ve gotten older, if it’s not going to snow, I think it’s interesting to see nature at work in many different and sometimes unusual ways, and hope people may enjoy a snowstorm where the odds are not as often in their favor, like far Southern NJ, Delaware beaches, et. al.


.

[wdrag]

Just have to wait it out...  I think we'll be seeing 12-15-1 ratios on whatever we get that is more than .05 melted, in part due to banding.  The banding graphics will post around 1P (if I have time-3 year old running around Opa=Grandpa in Dutch).

Thank for very much your compliments!  Many good-excellent posters herein, observers of the guidances and their nuances.

I don't post elsewhere except on my FB group, due to the overall good history with AMWX since my BOX days, plus I don't like the insta-dissapear posts elsewhere-- I like to look back and take my words to be reasonably accurate with perspective and try to act responsibly, more so than even in my later NWS days.  

The Discord platform transition 2 years ago basically set me aside from sharing on 33andrain, but do know it too is valuable for interested community. I just did not like the Discord process, in part cause I couldn't follow events very well.

I'll stay here til the NWS gets out there, like NHC, on getting the message out clearly and well advance- out to 7 days in each office  Then I'm done and can sleep in.  For now, I think the NWS is too steeped in it's own messaging imitations and is not simply and effectively communicating beyond 3 days.  it just isn't.  Guidance has outstripped the process. Just my opinion.  Change for NWS will be driven by outside forces....  internally it is too conservative.  Again, my opinion but I would not be welcomed back- I do live with that, even though I'm human and like to be wanted.  I would not fit their process.  

Let's see how things evolve tomorrow... will this be the first measurable of January in CP. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 3k NAM/HRRR now are similar, 12K not as far north with a 3-5 hour period where snow can reach metro NYC.  This tells me again it may be jet induced in some manner because there is no notable fgen showing up that far north.  Still a question if there may be too much virga, the surface temp/dp spread is not too huge on models at least but have to saturate areas above that

The nam is north in any way we slice it,i suspect most models will play catch up. The north trend will keep inching north imo. 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, North and West said:

I’ve been watching these long enough and been blessed to have experienced really good storms at my home and gone through others that have missed; as I’ve gotten older, if it’s not going to snow, I think it’s interesting to see nature at work in many different and sometimes unusual ways, and hope people may enjoy a snowstorm where the odds are not as often in their favor, like far Southern NJ, Delaware beaches, et. al.


.

I enjoy every day with measurable snowfall. Such days are, in fact, not very common (30-year average for NYC has fluctuated from 10.7 to 11.7 since 2000). Such days are precious.

[North and West]

I enjoy every day with measurable snowfall. Such days are, in fact, not very common (30-year average for NYC has fluctuated from 10.7 to 11.7 since 2000). Such days are precious.

Agreed!


.

[RU848789]

13 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The nam is north in any way we slice it,i suspect most models will play catch up. The north trend will keep inching north imo. 

The NAMs and HRRR moved significantly south at 12Z - see my post a few posts ago.  Fat lady is warming up.  

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

The NAMs and HRRR moved significantly south at 12Z - see my post a few posts ago.  Fat lady is warming up.  

Fat lady was in an uber home after the show last night. haha

[weatherpruf]

28 minutes ago, North and West said:

I’ve been watching these long enough and been blessed to have experienced really good storms at my home and gone through others that have missed; as I’ve gotten older, if it’s not going to snow, I think it’s interesting to see nature at work in many different and sometimes unusual ways, and hope people may enjoy a snowstorm where the odds are not as often in their favor, like far Southern NJ, Delaware beaches, et. al.


.

Weather is something to be experienced, in my view. A storm happening elsewhere is only of academic interest to people who study that sort of thing. If it snows in Toms River but not up here I only care if I have to drive there. If I want to watch snow on TV I can turn on the weather channel ,it's sure to be snowing somewhere....but that's just my own personal bias.

[RU848789]

And, of course, the ICON jumps north, so maybe the two camps are going to just move towards each other.  That would at least be better than a complete shutout for areas N of 276/195.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And, of course, the ICON jumps north, so maybe the two camps are going to just move towards each other.  That would at least be better than a complete shutout for areas N of 276/195.  

Baby steps..all i root for atm. Might not be much but the trend is north my friend.

[wdrag]

fwiw... Flight aware showing what I see as at least 50-70% flights cancelled in and out of MKC and STL at this time. 

Not a huge storm but a long narrow one.

 

[mikem81]

10 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Baby steps..all i root for atm. Might not be much but the trend is north my friend.

Not getting a 150 mile shift in the next 12 hours

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

If we're being honest, that goes for 100% of the forum to some extent.  You're telling me that Walt and Don haven't ever gone back to take a peek after throwing in the towel?*  Look where we are people!

*You guys are the best, just having some fun lol

It's interesting to me in the sense it'll be a significant storm for someone, but frustrating of course that the vast majority of us in this subforum will miss out on it and have to punt to the next one. DC to Baltimore and Dover DE are in the best spot and have been for days. The nailbiter area is Philly to AC because the confluence is pressing down as it approaches them. Other than a few outlier runs over 60 hours it hasn't been very suspenseful here. Walt of course is a met along with others that analyze these for a living, so of course they check back in. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

4 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Not getting a 150 mile shift in the next 12 hours

Def not but im not talking big jumps,every mile literally counts esp in these sharp cutoff situations. If the precip shield reaches i80 corridor from des Moines to chicago down the line to nyc.. then yes it would have shifted north quite a bit .. still yet to be seen though.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

12 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Not getting a 150 mile shift in the next 12 hours

I was also told that during a minor event forecasted for a trace..got 4.. it can happen reguardless of how many weenies get put up by snowman 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

fwiw... Flight aware showing what I see as at least 50-70% flights cancelled in and out of MKC and STL at this time. 

Not a huge storm but a long narrow one.

 

Whats crazier its that its still maturing. I said it earier,this is going to be stronger then modeled. Gom is open for biz btw..

[TJW014]

Final call is 2" for here. And I'd be perfectly happy with it. GF says 2" isn't enough, so I told her to find someone(where) else if she wants more.

Wind looks to swing lightly onshore by mid-morning, maybe a little ocean-effect enhancement.

Regardless it'll make a fun evening riding in the Pine Barrens.

[winterwx21]

34 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And, of course, the ICON jumps north, so maybe the two camps are going to just move towards each other.  That would at least be better than a complete shutout for areas N of 276/195.  

Was hoping to get a better idea with it moving one way or the other this morning, but it still looks like a very close call for our area here in Middlesex County. We could get a couple inches or just a little coating. As Walt said snow ratios will be better than 10:1, so that's a positive. At least we're still in the game to get an inch or so. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Just have to wait it out...  I think we'll be seeing 12-15-1 ratios on whatever we get that is more than .05 melted, in part due to banding.  The banding graphics will post around 1P (if I have time-3 year old running around Opa=Grandpa in Dutch).

Thank for very much your compliments!  Many good-excellent posters herein, observers of the guidances and their nuances.

I don't post elsewhere except on my FB group, due to the overall good history with AMWX since my BOX days, plus I don't like the insta-dissapear posts elsewhere-- I like to look back and take my words to be reasonably accurate with perspective and try to act responsibly, more so than even in my later NWS days.  

The Discord platform transition 2 years ago basically set me aside from sharing on 33andrain, but do know it too is valuable for interested community. I just did not like the Discord process, in part cause I couldn't follow events very well.

I'll stay here til the NWS gets out there, like NHC, on getting the message out clearly and well advance- out to 7 days in each office  Then I'm done and can sleep in.  For now, I think the NWS is too steeped in it's own messaging imitations and is not simply and effectively communicating beyond 3 days.  it just isn't.  Guidance has outstripped the process. Just my opinion.  Change for NWS will be driven by outside forces....  internally it is too conservative.  Again, my opinion but I would not be welcomed back- I do live with that, even though I'm human and like to be wanted.  I would not fit their process.  

Let's see how things evolve tomorrow... will this be the first measurable of January in CP. 

I post on the 33andrain Discord, but also find it harder to navigate/follow, plus it has a ton of useless banter mixed in, but it does have more meteorologists posting model play by play and other commentary, which I do like.  And I also post a lot more on FB and a couple of other boards. 

And great points on the NWS - feel similarly, although I also dislike the harsh bashing they get when a forecast is wrong or even just a bit off, as many simply don't understand how complex the weather is and that it's still impossible to accurately predict precip/snowfall (especially in mixed precip events) several days in advance and even, sometimes 12 hours in advance, lol.  It's not that they're bad scientists - this is just really hard stuff to get right. 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Was hoping to get a better idea with it moving one way or the other this morning, but it still looks like a very close call for our area here in Middlesex County. We could get a couple inches or just a little coating. As Walt said snow ratios will be better than 10:1, so that's a positive. At least we're still in the game to get an inch or so. 

I dunno this just feels like one of those situations where the northern edge gets eaten up by the dry air and we get some light snow showers that don't add up to much

[RU848789]

GFS is as close at 12Z to 6Z as it could be, so no movement there...posting Kuchera map given Walt's comments on any banding likely having good ratios aloft (which probably is close to Kuchera's greater than 10:1 ratio based on max column temps).