Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I think strong isentropic lift with sw jet at 7H/8H in the Virginia's with 8H trying to form a low in PA-NJ by 00z/7. The mesoscale models are holding onto the trough structure longer as we come toward T0 (Monday)...  so presuming it has the upper low right in the OV, it wont disappear as fast as modeled-mushed by the globals. 

There wont be much northerly BL flow into the system prior to its arrival on the 6th so dry air advection I dont think is a player. It has basically what is out there now, a 15-20 degree T/Td spread.  It will take awhile for snow aloft in any CSI Band to work down to the ground up here around I80.  There may be some small ocean effect contribution along the NJ coast?

I have to think the globals will drift north tomorrow... or I've interpreted wrong.

 First thing I have to see is there Canadian come way north. Just not what I expected from the Canadian (GDPS-RGEM).  For now I think it the southerly outlier.   

 

That's it for me tonight.  Thanks for the MDL NBM reply.

 

Hope you’re right! A good surprise is always welcome. Thanks as always. 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

HRRR can be too amped at long range. It’s not useful for probably another 18 hours. 

It's not just the HRRR tho. Every model shifting north. The mesos more so then the OP's

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rap

Id have to rethink my scheduled bird hunt with my dog in SW Salem county if that were to verify.  Leave the shotgun at home and take the  dog sled.   Not sure he would appreciate that end of the deal. 

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rap

Id have to rethink my scheduled bird hunt with my dog in SW Salem county if that were to verify.  Leave the shotgun at home and take the dog sled.   Not sure he would appreciate that end of the deal. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

It's not just the HRRR tho. Every model shifting north. The mesos more so then the OP's

I guess we’ll see what happens, expect a lousy outcome and be happy if it surprises to the upside. It’s still possible the confluence wave to our north could weaken or move a little out of the way and the storm could be stronger but I see that really benefitting Philly to maybe Trenton. We need too much to happen around NYC for anything really interesting. 

[Franklin0529]

Starting to show more an more coastal enhancement also. We need to watch that feature. That could be a nice surprise 

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Id have to rethink my scheduled bird hunt with my dog in SW Salem county if that were to verify.  Leave the shotgun at home and take the dog sled.   Not sure he would appreciate that end of the deal. 

what decade is it where you are? hahaha

[dseagull]

31 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

what decade is it where you are? hahaha

The one where guns, gun dogs, and snow make me a happy man and my pup a tired boy!  Praying for a week of constant wing-folding with snow covered ground.  Only had 2 days blasting birds last year with snow cover.  

[jdj5211]

that precip shield just gets flattened like a pancake....

[Allsnow]

Nam says next 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam says next 

Looks the same as 18z to me

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Looks the same as 18z to me

Bumped south 

[Stormlover74]

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bumped south 

Don't expect more than a dusting to an inch and hopefully we'll get a surprise 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't expect more than a dusting to an inch and hopefully we'll get a surprise 

If HRRR and NAM are correct our area is getting an advisory level event, but of course we have a ways to go to find out if they're correct. Still a very tough call with our area being near the edge of the accumulating snow, but we're definitely seeing some encouraging signs. . 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bumped south 

3k is better

[North and West]

The one where guns, gun dogs, and snow make me a happy man and my pup a tired boy!  Praying for a week of constant wing-folding with snow covered ground.  Only had 2 days blasting birds last year with snow cover.  

These photos are so fowl.


.

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr and icon pretty meh

Edit rgem not hrrr

[Tatamy]

RGEM is also south.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

GGEM is also south.

Philly gets under 1".  

For the last last time, put this one to bed guys. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr and icon pretty meh

I'm ready for my dusting unless the models are wrong about the cutoff.

[LVblizzard]

7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

GGEM is also south.

RGEM* the global version doesn’t come out for another 45 minutes.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Philly gets under 1".  

For the last last time, put this one to bed guys. 

You can do so

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

RGEM* the global version doesn’t come out for another 45 minutes.

That's what I meant. Not the hrrr

[SnowGoose69]

The HRRR concerns me a bit because despite the fact it sucked the last 2-3 months with seemingly everything, it HAS often seen these further north extensions of snow before, usually due to jet dynamics.  I am not sure if thats the reason the HRRR is showing that signal or not but we do have the 150kt plus jet up here north of the system.

[nightknights]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Philly gets under 1".  

For the last last time, put this one to bed guys. 

This is about the 10th time you've put this one to bed.  Lol

[Irish]

8 minutes ago, nightknights said:

This is about the 10th time you've put this one to bed.  Lol

That's because he's playing the reverse psychology game. "Ah, put it to bed," he says, while his eyes are glued to this thread like a kid locked in hoping to see Santa fly by through the window.  

[wdrag]

Letting it play out... fringe at most I80 north. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Letting it play out... fringe at most I80 north. 

This is going to be a huge storm. Also we need to see if precip makes it to chicago,if it snows there,it will likely snow here .

[coastalplainsnowman]

9 hours ago, Irish said:

That's because he's playing the reverse psychology game. "Ah, put it to bed," he says, while his eyes are glued to this thread like a kid locked in hoping to see Santa fly by through the window.  

If we're being honest, that goes for 100% of the forum to some extent.  You're telling me that Walt and Don haven't ever gone back to take a peek after throwing in the towel?*  Look where we are people!

*You guys are the best, just having some fun lol