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Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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dseagull
dseagull

The one where guns, gun dogs, and snow make me a happy man and my pup a tired boy!  Praying for a week of constant wing-folding with snow covered ground.  Only had 2 days blasting birds last year with

Nibor
Nibor
wdrag
wdrag

I think strong isentropic lift with sw jet at 7H/8H in the Virginia's with 8H trying to form a low in PA-NJ by 00z/7. The mesoscale models are holding onto the trough structure longer as we come towar

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Still stinks but globals probably aren't the way to go. A lot of upstream convection that could affect how intense and /or north the fringe gets. 

Mesos will handle this a lot better. 

As I said last night, it's still too early to give up for our area. Obviously the significant amounts are going to be to the south, but I think we're seeing enough this morning to believe that our area still has a shot to get a couple inches. Hopefully we'll see some more little north bumps tonight into tomorrow. Our area is very close to the edge right now ... we only need a slight change. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

FYI, regarding the National Blend of Models issue:

I emailed the development team this morning with screen shots. I used the text from the guidance rather than vendor maps to illustrate that the issue exists with the product itself. The three screenshots I included are below.

image.png.12d7f0660b6f5bc88b61f7263d226447.png

image.png.b2551d9f8ebd0982a5a1deafd7681d82.png

image.png.5aa190da256cc309f7c5323877cd8913.png

I will post any updates I receive from the development team.

 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

GFS was better...at least I get an inch

The northern edge will likely be sharp because of any lighter stuff being eaten in dry/sinking air. It’ll probably go from less than an inch to 6” within 20-30 miles where heavy banding can reach. Maybe toward the end if this coastal redevelopment is real some people further north to maybe the south shore of LI and around I-78 can get a quick car topper or coating but the fundamentals of why this is screwing us over aren’t changing even if the last minute north bumps happen. That’s good for Philly over to around Toms River. 

And if you believe models like the RGEM, even Philly to AC don’t get much and DC is on the northern end of the heavy amounts. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The northern edge will likely be sharp because of any lighter stuff being eaten in dry/sinking air. It’ll probably go from less than an inch to 6” within 20-30 miles where heavy banding can reach. Maybe toward the end if this coastal redevelopment is real some people further north to maybe the south shore of LI and around I-78 can get a quick car topper or coating but the fundamentals of why this is screwing us over aren’t changing even if the last minute north bumps happen. That’s good for Philly over to around Toms River. 

And if you believe models like the RGEM, even Philly to AC don’t get much and DC is on the northern end of the heavy amounts. 

a road trip to Long Beach for this storm, JM?

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wdrag

wdrag

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Hi everyone... I'm going to let the rest of this play out...  we're fringe I80 north... how much I'll leave it to WFO Phi and OKX, as well as yourselves too decide.  I may post some of the guidance one in a while.

I have no stake... just that this is an event of sorts Monday and use D8 lead time errors help inform the future. 

I will track SREF, NAM, HRRR and RAP 51 hr trends and Banding links from WPC and FSU.

This is just the start of a a wintry January... maybe more cold than snow with respect to normal?  Watch the wind Tue and Thu and wind chill. 

I've got my propane heat on hold at 69 now to prevent pipe outside edge of the laundry room from freezing in continuously at or below 30F temps the next 7 days in Wantage NJ.

This kind of cold can push infrastructure problems...its not extreme but water main breaks and fires are my concern. 

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wdrag

wdrag

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There's going to be a horrendous bust for the 18z NAM, 18z HRRR and 15z RAP, all having snow up here to varying degrees if the 12z/4 NAEFS nil prevails on I80.  Still interesting and I'll leave it to you all and the WFO's to wrestle with final numbers.

 

If I may add: looks a little ocean effect contribution possible Monmouth south  Monday per model soundings of -7C over water plus 7C.  GFS most variable for that with too much new flow on 12z/4 EC and CMC. 

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wdrag

wdrag

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CTP and PHI hold the watch til at least one more forecast cycle.  Guessing LWX will warn but unsure...still nothing from them at 346PM but they may be coordinating with partners, writing up whatever. 

No matter what happens Philly-DCA Monday,  I think those cities and in-between  I dont want to be trying to drive in a timely fashion and get to work that for most of us could easily hold off a day. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

NAM moved a bit north not a lot (same for the NAM3K), but the bigger thing is it's the snowiest model and it did improve.  ICON looks the same at 18Z and 12Z, but the HRRR, which did well with the two Dec storms, but did terribly with the SNJ storm yesterday, is pretty snowy.  The RGEM is slightly less snowy with very little snow for Philly-AC even and northward.  SREFs look great as always, lol.  

image.gif.d44e5bb0ec3b5f4250cb688372200058.gif

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

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