Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[Irish]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs

Well, that's positive. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Irish said:

Well, that's positive. 

Still close to track

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still close to track

Beginning to wonder IF by 12Z tomorrow the south shift over the last day or so will be reversed......and even move further north then before

[vegan_edible]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Beginning to wonder that by 12Z tomorrow the south shift over the last day or so will be reversed......and even move further north then before

im hoping so too. 

 

im also hoping i hit the mega millions 

[Franklin0529]

Euro bumped the heaviest precip north about 50 miles. Less confluence over the NE an slightly more ampd vort is what we need

[SnowGoose69]

Everyone has to just hope there is a timing or strength error on that little vort lobe.  Its a wildy chaotic piece of energy spinning around that massive low.  I am actually surprised to see all models within reasonable agreement at the moment given how sensitive a piece it is and how it evolves quite a bit in the next 3 days.  Given how strong this s/w is as it comes across the Oh Valley there would be a nasty late track bust on this if either that vort is weaker/late and it was not resolved til the final 24-36 hours.

[Allsnow]

Amazing how locked the euro has been with this 

[RU848789]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Everyone has to just hope there is a timing or strength error on that little vort lobe.  Its a wildy chaotic piece of energy spinning around that massive low.  I am actually surprised to see all models within reasonable agreement at the moment given how sensitive a piece it is and how it evolves quite a bit in the next 3 days.  Given how strong this s/w is as it comes across the Oh Valley there would be a nasty late track bust on this if either that vort is weaker/late and it was not resolved til the final 24-36 hours.

Did you see the key part of the Mt. Holly AFD where they talk about their reasoning for going bullish with the snow for CNJ/NNJ?  Wish they'd come on one of these boards and clearly show what they mean by "looking at the overall atmosphere aloft including jet dynamics and mesoscale features."

The biggest challenge that still persists at this time is with
regard to the track of the surface low and where it will be as it
crosses through the area. While the majority of ensemble guidance
has shown a southern shift over the past 12-24 hours with QPF,
looking at the overall atmosphere aloft including jet dynamics and
mesoscale features, it seems that the overall consensus of the track
seems to be too far south. Depending on the strength of the system
as it approaches and confluence that lingers over the Northeast US,
will simply determine how far north the snow shield reaches. Have
started to see some waffling back and forth with the 12Z guidance,
so don`t completely buy the entire southern shift. Unfortunately,
there is still a lot of uncertainty amongst global guidance, where
the greatest potential for higher-level impacts remains over the
southern-half of the forecast area.

[Yanksfan]

Meteorologist Craig Allen says with the latest north trends he’s calling for 1-3 for NNJ and the city, with 3-6 for Central and Southern sections.

[jdj5211]

0Z NAM keeps the entire storm from CNJ on southward....a flake doesn't even fly in N NJ/NYC

[SI Mailman]

0z NAM a tick south of its 18z run.

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

0z NAM a tick south of its 18z run.

Based on that even I-195 might not even see much, might need to be in Philly to AC and on SW. For any miracle outcome I’d want to see big moves to it tonight since the major pieces should be sampled now. 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Amazing how locked the euro has been with this 

Except 1 run

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Except 1 run

 

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Except 1 run

This is January 2019 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem and icon went south too.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem and icon went south too.

Yea it's over. Early night for me after the euro. Have been staying up past 1am every night .

[jdj5211]

This one's over folks....on to the next one...

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yea it's over. Early night for me after the euro. Have been staying up past 1am every night .

It’s done.  Confluence FTW.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

It’s done.  Confluence FTW.

May not even be advisory level north of Baltimore 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

May not even be advisory level north of Baltimore 

I guess the pain will be less since the heavy snow band will be 75-100 miles away vs 20. Our chance will come when the pattern changes and blocking relaxes. This should be a lesson forever that blocking patterns aren’t always good for us. It’s really around the DC area that needs it. Here it’s helpful but we get hit more often when it relaxes and often like now hurts. 

[Irish]

The sad part is this seems to be the pattern. We probably miss out on the storm on the 11th in the same fashion, too. 

[Irish]

I'm hoping that in wrong. 

[winterwx21]

Not looking good but it's still too early to give up. SnowGoose gave the reason why there could be a major change in the 24 to 36 hours before the event. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Irish said:

I'm hoping that in wrong. 

We'll have to hope it's like Jan 2022 where we miss the first storm and get the next one a few days later

[Voyager]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I guess the pain will be less since the heavy snow band will be 75-100 miles away vs 20. Our chance will come when the pattern changes and blocking relaxes. This should be a lesson forever that blocking patterns aren’t always good for us. It’s really around the DC area that needs it. Here it’s helpful but we get hit more often when it relaxes and often like now hurts. 

This is exactly how I feel. Plus, for me anyway, I'd rather have no snow at all the to be fringed by getting an inch in a tight gradient.

[MJO812]

Gfs south 

 

 

 

Goodnight 

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs south 

 

 

 

Goodnight 

Zzzzzz…… 

[Allsnow]

Great job by the euro. Hopefully it has its form back for the rest of the season 

 

this one is done, hopefully we get something before the RNA comes but things look bleak 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Great job by the euro. Hopefully it has its form back for the rest of the season 

 

this one is done, hopefully we get something before the RNA comes but things look bleak 

Nothing looks bad in the mid to long range. We need a change and the blocking getting weaker will help us. You have been on the bleak train so far this winter and the opposite has happened. Slow down and enjoy the colder pattern. Something will pop for us.

[jm1220]

Really not much suspense with this one other than a couple outlier runs. Looked like your typical confluence screw job setup that favors DC to AC for the last 48 hours. There were ways we could’ve gotten the storm to trend north with the confluence relaxing or S/W strengthening but that PV lobe showing up and refusing to yield over S Quebec sealed it. I guess Philly is the real question mark now, odds are it does come N a little at the very end and they should get into it but the confluence hammer might keep pressing south.