Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[jdj5211]

we'll have to see how quick that coastal low can deepen when it gets off shore.....

looks like a Monday morning to Monday evening event for the NY metro....

temps in the mid 20s throughout storm....10-1 minimum as far as ratio....could easily see 12-1

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nice coastal enhancement

Yup, I think we're in a good spot. You're only 25 miles away across the water 

[jm1220]

Another good step in the right direction. The storm slowing down helps too, maybe the confluence has more time to weaken. The deeper trend is definitely what we want to see. 

[Franklin0529]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Storm has slowed down on all the models allowing it to dig further south . With that the confluence has a chance to leave quicker. 

Yup 

[Franklin0529]

Snowman keeps handing out weenies, he's gotta be in Shambles right now 

[winterwx21]

CMC nothing like the GFS. The confluence eats away some of the snow and we only get an inch or two. Still a long way to go to figure this out, but at least it's very likely that we'll get some accumulating snow. 

[jm1220]

Unfortunately GGEM looks like suppressed crap. Looks south of 12z. 

[MJO812]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

CMC nothing like the GFS. The confluence eats away some of the snow and we only get an inch or two. Still a long way to go to figure this out, but at least it's very likely that we'll get some accumulating snow. 

 

[MJO812]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Unfortunately GGEM looks like suppressed crap. Looks south of 12z. 

Not that far south

I'm waiting on the gefs and ukie soon

[psv88]

Canadian shuts out most of the board, GFS has an advisory event for most and warning event for CNJ south. 
 

I would feel very comfortable if I lived in Philly. Will be a nice event for them. 4-6” seems like a lock 

[cleetussnow]

4 hours ago, Nibor said:

for now...

Gfs nudged it north.  Give me another 60 miles…we can do that in 3 days easily.  But that is a tight gradient so I doubt we will see huge moves beyond that though. This isn’t likely going to be much for the NE crew.

[RU848789]

Holy crap, we just got NAM-ed by the 0Z GFS, lol.  Stepped away for 30 min and boom!  

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Canadian shuts out most of the board, GFS has an advisory event for most and warning event for CNJ south. 
 

I would feel very comfortable if I lived in Philly. Will be a nice event for them. 4-6” seems like a lock 

They usually edge into these type of events so I agree there. Bottom line is the confluence has to get out of the way at least a decent bit for us to have a shot. A stronger S/W will help but strong enough confluence will just start to shred it up since it's running into a massive upper low to our NE and dry air. The slower evolution probably helps too since it gives time for the PV lobe and therefore confluence to pivot away.

[psv88]

Just now, jm1220 said:

They usually edge into these type of events so I agree there. Bottom line is the confluence has to get out of the way at least a decent bit for us to have a shot. A stronger S/W will help but strong enough confluence will just start to shred it up since it's running into a massive upper low to our NE and dry air. The slower evolution probably helps too since it gives time for the PV lobe and therefore confluence to pivot away.

Agreed. My thoughts haven’t really changed. 1-2” south shore, dusting to an inch north shore. Give or take an inch. 

[SnowGoose69]

The redeveloping of the low is not the best thing in the world as it might cause a screw zone.  Not to the extreme we see in clippers but this is a case where some dynamics could be lost if we have a hard weakening and transfer to a coastal.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They usually edge into these type of events so I agree there. Bottom line is the confluence has to get out of the way at least a decent bit for us to have a shot. A stronger S/W will help but strong enough confluence will just start to shred it up since it's running into a massive upper low to our NE and dry air. The slower evolution probably helps too since it gives time for the PV lobe and therefore confluence to pivot away.

The CMC nailing some of those confluence setups would worry me somewhat if over the next 3-4 cycles it starts being the most squashed.  It was the only model to see the March 2013 storms were all going to be south and its hit a few others.  I might have said it 2 days ago too, watch to see if the CMC is the most north or south.  When there's been confluence issues in SE Canada its sometimes sniffed these out before the other models do.

[MJO812]

Gefs

[jdj5211]

different storm but look at this monster coming out of the Gulf for next weekend.....

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

different storm but look at this monster coming out of the Gulf for next weekend.....

The models are starting to show the gulf storm again.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

different storm but look at this monster coming out of the Gulf for next weekend.....

I like the CMC idea better though.  I just think due to the pattern flow we've had the system is going to eject out faster and be a classic weak Gulf wave that gives snow to MS/AL/GA

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I like the CMC idea better though.  I just think due to the pattern flow we've had the system is going to eject out faster and be a classic weak Gulf wave that gives snow to MS/AL/GA

This time snow gets up to NJ.  Its not a hit tho on the gfs

[HeadInTheClouds]

UKIE says what snow? 

[MJO812]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

UKIE says what snow? 

Barely in DC also

[RU848789]

Just when I thought we were going to have consensus on a snow party with the ICON/GFS, the CMC brings us back to reality and then the UK impersonates Dr. No.

[SnowGoose69]

I don't know what will happen now since the Euro got upgraded but the last 5 years or so whatever the UKIE does the Euro has more or less always done the opposite.  Its been a growing joke that they now go the opposite way when they used to seemingly always move in tandem with each other

[LVblizzard]

I’ve seen the UKMET do this before. In February 2021 it showed snow completely missing eastern PA 4 days out. I ended up getting 2 1/2 feet.

Edit: found it lol

[SnowGoose69]

The UKMET is wildly progressive and weaker with the S/W so that coupled with it probably moving the system in before the confluence can exit east all leads to it being way south

[nightknights]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

congrats philly

Its 3+ days out Philly will not be bullseye.  The target will keep moving

[jm1220]

The deeper/stronger S/W solutions are also the slower ones, so it's probably a double benefit in the stronger WAA push and the confluence having more time to exit. CMC/UK look a lot weaker and more progressive with it. So maybe when the S/W comes onshore tomorrow we'll finally have better consensus. The UK fringing BWI for crying out loud wasn't what I wanted. 

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just when I thought we were going to have consensus on a snow party with the ICON/GFS, the CMC brings us back to reality and then the UK impersonates Dr. No.

It's usually a wild ride for us in the several days before a snow event with the flip flopping models. I do think the UKMET solution is extremely unlikely though. As Snowgoose said, it's ridiculously progressive with the shortwave. I think at the very least our area will see a light accumulating snow like the CMC shows, but hopefully something a little more significant. Euro in an hour will be interesting to see.