Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[Allsnow]

 

[RU848789]

  On 1/3/2025 at 1:14 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

This is a SWFE.  Most people don’t realize that because it’s so far south relative to normal.  They usually do not show any northward movement that is notable til the final 72-84 hours most of the time and sometimes not til the final 48.  I had said by the time this was 96 or so out we wanted the jackpot to be DC preferably or northern to central VA.  If it was there we’d be in good position to get snow, albeit not the jackpot.  I still feel the jackpot zone in the end though might end up southern PA to southern NJ.  So maybe a 50 mile shift from what we currently see 

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I'll take that, thanks for guaranteeing that outcome, lol.  

[Stormlover74]

Icon south 

[mikem81]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:14 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Icon south 

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Nope. Slower 

[Stormlover74]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:14 AM, mikem81 said:

Nope. Slower 

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Still south with the heaviest accumulations 

 

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:14 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Icon south 

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[jdj5211]

End of the 0z NAM run looked good.....things seem to be trending north still.....0z GFS and Euro will be telling

[Franklin0529]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:17 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Still south with the heaviest accumulations 

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Not really, it actually all came north 

[winterwx21]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:19 AM, jdj5211 said:

End of the 0z NAM run looked good.....things seem to be trending north still.....0z GFS and Euro will be telling

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Yeah I was just gonna mention that too. I know we don't put much stock in long range NAM, but it certainly looks good at hour 84. 

[EastonSN+]

If you look at Connecticut Northwest New Jersey and Pennsylvania the precept shield definitely moved South. Also check Washington DC.

[Allsnow]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:14 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Icon south 

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Sunk a bit south but still a good hit 

[EastonSN+]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:21 AM, Allsnow said:

Sunk a bit south but still a good hit 

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More concerned that the trends might be reversing

[Allsnow]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:22 AM, EastonSN+ said:

More concerned that the trends might be reversing

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It’s getting to the point where you won’t see massive changes in the TPV. I expect a slight shift north over the weekend. The euro has definitely been very steady with this the past 24 hours 

[mannynyc]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:22 AM, EastonSN+ said:

More concerned that the trends might be reversing

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This is not a trend reversing 

[MJO812]

[Snowlover11]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:30 AM, MJO812 said:

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congrats philly

[RU848789]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:22 AM, EastonSN+ said:

More concerned that the trends might be reversing

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Why?  It was an outlier at 18Z north, so coming back a little bit south is no surprise; it's still likely going to be the furthest north of the 0Z models.  

[Irish]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:14 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Icon south 

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  On 1/3/2025 at 3:20 AM, Franklin0529 said:

Not really, it actually all came north 

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Windshield wiper effect? 

[MJO812]

Gfs so far is more amped out west and slower.

[Irish]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:51 AM, MJO812 said:

Gfs so far is more amped out west and slower.

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Is that a negative?

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2025 at 3:55 AM, Irish said:

Is that a negative?

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No

[MJO812]

Yep north 

[jdj5211]

GFS amped and deepening precip shield further to the north....should be a good hit coming....

[brooklynwx99]

holy crap what a trend 

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2025 at 4:00 AM, jdj5211 said:

GFS amped and deepening precip shield further to the north....should be a good hit coming....

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Yep

Rain in SNJ

[Franklin0529]

Getting some coastal love too. She's coming ladies and gents!! Buckle up

[cleetussnow]

Little better

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2025 at 4:02 AM, Franklin0529 said:

Getting some coastal love too. She's coming ladies and gents!! Buckle up

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Nice coastal enhancement

[Franklin0529]

  On 1/3/2025 at 4:02 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap what a trend 

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Look at that bowling ball

 

[MJO812]

  On 1/3/2025 at 4:05 AM, Franklin0529 said:

Look at that bowling ball

 

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Storm has slowed down on all the models allowing it to dig further south . With that the confluence has a chance to leave quicker.