Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wow ECMWF. significant change with the confluence

18Z run - lets see what happens at 0Z

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro !

Higher snow ratios with this storm also ?? Thoughts anyone ?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Higher snow ratios with this storm also ??

Yes sir

[vegan_edible]

plsplspls let this be the beginning of a change that the euro sniffs out

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yes sir

Don’t buy into it metfan. The models are gonna go back and forth. If this trend continues New England will have it next

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yes sir

Impressive BUT need consistency run to run

[Allsnow]

If the euro is correct snow would start around 12am Monday morning 

[Allsnow]

This is all about the TPV relaxing. It wants to come north 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Don’t buy into it metfan. The models are gonna go back and forth. If this trend continues New England will have it next

SWFE always come north 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If the euro is correct snow would start around 12am Monday morning 

Eps north also

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps north also

Yup. More amped 

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. More amped 

Off hour run but the idv are way north 

[Allsnow]

Big jump on the eps with the snow mean for nyc. 
 

3 nyc 

5 phl 

[brooklynwx99]

EPS with a huge shift. much less confluence and a stronger vort

[RU848789]

Nice!  Let's hope this is the start of a trend towards at least some snow for our area (and maybe more than a few inches) - and with temps in the 20s, melting/accumulation wouldn't be an issue, plus we might do better than 10:1, if we can get good dendritic growth (which is not a factor in the Kuchera algorithm, which is why I don't post those maps).

[brooklynwx99]

trend with the confluence is clear as day on the EPS

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Nice!  Let's hope this is the start of a trend towards at least some snow for our area (and maybe more than a few inches) - and with temps in the 20s, melting/accumulation wouldn't be an issue, plus we might do better than 10:1, if we can get good dendritic growth (which is not a factor in the Kuchera algorithm, which is why I don't post those maps).

I will gladly take the 2” this map gives me 

 

don’t get me wrong. I do miss chasing big blockbuster blizzards we were spoiled with though 

[Allsnow]

 

[cleetussnow]

Couple more bumps and we in bidness

[Rjay]

49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z run - lets see what happens at 0Z

There's nothing wrong with 18z runs

[greenmtnwx]

Not saying we are going to bullseye this one, and I know I’m in a better spot on the Jersey Shore, but I was kind of surprised people were writing this one off the last day or so. People were acting like it was a 36 hour prog. This thing is still day four or five away.  

[RU848789]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Big jump on the eps with the snow mean for nyc. 
 

3 nyc 

5 phl 

Yep, big jump in snowfall on the EPS for areas north of DC-Cape May, so this wouldn't appear to be an Op outlier (not like that nutty 12Z GFS run showing 12"+ in the deep south today, while the GEFS showed barely nada).  

[SnoSki14]

Euro could be a blip run but how everyone was dead set on a suppressed outcome when these things almost always come north was strange to me. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro could be a blip run but how everyone was dead set on a suppressed outcome when these things almost always come north was strange to me. 

The confluence is weakening on this run and S/W is strengthening, that's why it bumped north. Hopefully the trend keeps up. 

[wdrag]

57 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Higher snow ratios with this storm also ?? Thoughts anyone ?

Even the 18z virtually dry GFS at LGA is showing banding along I80 and decent dendrite growth in the SGZ Monday.  With the EPS so much further north, that is a relief. 

[Tatamy]

What is it that the EPS is seeing at 18z that the 18z GEFS is not?  There’s something in the data stream that it’s parsing out that the other models aren’t (yet?).  I get the part with the confluence however there seems to be more to it.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Ok I’ve seen enough. The trend is the friend. It’s gonna snow.

[brooklynwx99]

i would urge caution at this point given that it’s just one run with a jump like this but the 12z GEPS also shot north and the ICON had a similar evolution with a lobe of the TPV tilting the trough