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Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed


wdrag
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3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would urge caution at this point given that it’s just one run with a jump like this but the 12z GEPS also shot north and the ICON had a similar evolution with a lobe of the TPV tilting the trough 

 

Totally agree about single-run caution to avoid possible windshield wiper effect. But this was a really good cycle (plus 18z ECM). All medium range models and ensembles are improved - and it's a meaningful improvement. At this time range I think holding serve two more cycles or so would signal a really good chance of a light to moderate snowfall locally.

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So the 0Z Euro is a step back from 18Z for NYC Metro, but is still better than 12Z was and is somewhat more in line with the rest of the 0Z suite.  If the storm was tomorrow, I'd go with the NBM, i.e. ~2" along 80 (including NYC) increasing as one goes south to 3-4" along 276/195 and more south of there (meaning 2-3" for most of CNJ).  I'd take that, considering things were looking like <1" for most folks N of 276/195 until this evening, although I also won't turn down further increases, lol.  

image.gif.55cd03968edbeec4ee8a7247d4de8ab0.gif

 

snowfall_acc-imp.us_ma.png

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Good Thursday morning everyone, it is Jan 2, 2025.
 
Next Monday Jan 6-early Tuesday the 7th.  The northern fringe of snowfall somewhere between I80 and I84.  nw NJ-nePA-Orange County NY and NYC-LI...right now a dusting to possibly 2" but we're on the fringe here with uncertainty. I dont think there will be too much northward adjustment in the projected snowfall but 50 miles would make a big difference here, especially I78-I80.  Noting WPC has NO qpf here on LI for this storm as does the Blend of Models.  This despite a low prob  of 1/4" frozen on their maps this morning and ditto snowfall on the Blend of Models.  I'll file this in the back of mind regarding what to use in the future.  Blend of Models is more conservative on any qpf I80 northward. 
 
 

 

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I want to see more pronounced bumps N for me to really jump in for this threat at least along I-80 which includes NYC/LI. The northern edge of these are sometimes overdone because dry air will eat at the precip as it tries to come north. So I really want to see some of these models get good snow into the Hudson Valley and CT. And if the models start to back away that’s obviously bad too. The wave will also likely be weakening as it comes east and battles the 50-50 low and confluence. I think it’s still less than 50% chance our subforum sees anything decent, and in actuality probably nothing given the N edge will likely be sharp because of the dry air issues. 

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To illustrate my point about discontinuity... BOM total qpf and snowfall differ next 5 days - see below.  As does the WPC qpf and chance of 1/4" frozen qpf.   We're on the edge and I too worry about dry air eating up the northern fringe.   Click for clarity. 

Screen Shot 2025-01-02 at 6.58.33 AM.png

Screen Shot 2025-01-02 at 6.59.11 AM.png

Screen Shot 2025-01-02 at 6.56.20 AM.png

Screen Shot 2025-01-02 at 6.57.11 AM.png

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  • wdrag changed the title to Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

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