Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed

[MJO812]

Icon north

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Icon north

That's a really sizable jump

[Stormlover74]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

That's a really sizable jump

 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

Models are trying to go through miller B route. Looks like the shortwave phases some with a TPV lobe. 

[MJO812]

Gfs coming in north and stronger. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs coming in north and stronger. 

Not there yet but a stronger storm on the model.

[Allsnow]

Gfs definitely trended towards the the icon/euro 

[MJO812]

Cmc more north

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs definitely trended towards the the icon/euro 

Euro at 18Z and ICON/GFS at 0Z.  Good trends.  

[Allsnow]

CMC with the jump north 

 

[Stormlover74]

[RU848789]

CMC joins the party - loving the trends since the 18Z Euro...

[eduggs]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would urge caution at this point given that it’s just one run with a jump like this but the 12z GEPS also shot north and the ICON had a similar evolution with a lobe of the TPV tilting the trough 

 

Totally agree about single-run caution to avoid possible windshield wiper effect. But this was a really good cycle (plus 18z ECM). All medium range models and ensembles are improved - and it's a meaningful improvement. At this time range I think holding serve two more cycles or so would signal a really good chance of a light to moderate snowfall locally.

[RU848789]

UK also showed improvement relative to 12Z, if you live north of Wilmington to AC.  Euro up next - hoping it at least doesn't backtrack from 18Z...

[NEG NAO]

OZ Euro OP weaker then 18Z

[NEG NAO]

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

OZ Euro OP weaker then 18Z

pretty much splits the difference between 12/18z. about what I would expect

[RU848789]

So the 0Z Euro is a step back from 18Z for NYC Metro, but is still better than 12Z was and is somewhat more in line with the rest of the 0Z suite.  If the storm was tomorrow, I'd go with the NBM, i.e. ~2" along 80 (including NYC) increasing as one goes south to 3-4" along 276/195 and more south of there (meaning 2-3" for most of CNJ).  I'd take that, considering things were looking like <1" for most folks N of 276/195 until this evening, although I also won't turn down further increases, lol.  

 

[qg_omega]

Epic H5

[wdrag]

Good Thursday morning everyone, it is Jan 2, 2025.

 

Next Monday Jan 6-early Tuesday the 7th.  The northern fringe of snowfall somewhere between I80 and I84.  nw NJ-nePA-Orange County NY and NYC-LI...right now a dusting to possibly 2" but we're on the fringe here with uncertainty. I dont think there will be too much northward adjustment in the projected snowfall but 50 miles would make a big difference here, especially I78-I80.  Noting WPC has NO qpf here on LI for this storm as does the Blend of Models.  This despite a low prob  of 1/4" frozen on their maps this morning and ditto snowfall on the Blend of Models.  I'll file this in the back of mind regarding what to use in the future.  Blend of Models is more conservative on any qpf I80 northward. 

 

 

 

[jm1220]

I want to see more pronounced bumps N for me to really jump in for this threat at least along I-80 which includes NYC/LI. The northern edge of these are sometimes overdone because dry air will eat at the precip as it tries to come north. So I really want to see some of these models get good snow into the Hudson Valley and CT. And if the models start to back away that’s obviously bad too. The wave will also likely be weakening as it comes east and battles the 50-50 low and confluence. I think it’s still less than 50% chance our subforum sees anything decent, and in actuality probably nothing given the N edge will likely be sharp because of the dry air issues. 

[wdrag]

To illustrate my point about discontinuity... BOM total qpf and snowfall differ next 5 days - see below.  As does the WPC qpf and chance of 1/4" frozen qpf.   We're on the edge and I too worry about dry air eating up the northern fringe.   Click for clarity. 

[SnoSki14]

Probably have a couple more days to see any north bumps. 

I'm hoping we can score a light event at least. 

[MJO812]

18z euro was a blip yesterday 

[EastonSN+]

45 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Epic H5

We were overdue for a cold and dry winter.

[wdrag]

We're on the edge. Try and enjoy our good life. 

 

06Z/2 EPS QPF attached. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

We're on the edge. Try and enjoy our good life. 

 

06Z/2 EPS QPF attached. 

Maybe the south shore of LI will get 3” and the north shore will get nothing for a change 

[wdrag]

Also did I mention there's a banding signal up here in the GFS...  and DCA soundings are now showing sleet January 6 (GFS). 

[Snowlover11]

meh euro and gfs shifting back south. Us northern folk will be sniffing flurries.