January 2025 General Discussion

[bowtie`]

Can not access the five minute data for KIND nor KLOT but it was breezy this afternoon...

 

 

 

[IWXwx]

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Still looking pretty snowless through mid Feb.  With MLI still at only 3.6", and the all-time record low snow season at 9.9" it's starting to look like a great shot at new all-time futility.  After such a horrible winter it would be some consolation to have what looked like an unbeatable record beaten.  Unfortunately there's always the chance that we nickel and dime our way past the 10" mark in late Feb and March.  

Or stay under the record until mid-March, then get a wrist-slashing 10" of cement that melts the next day, making the seasonal snowfall not look that bad years down the road, when it fact it sucked badly.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, bowtie` said:

Can not access the five minute data for KIND nor KLOT but it was breezy this afternoon...

 

Been having this issue with KMPX too 

[RogueWaves]

On 1/28/2025 at 6:28 PM, roardog said:

The winter up to this point has reminded me of a weak Nino type of pattern where you get the cold air but it’s dry. We’ve also had the southern snow like a Nino and when the warmth comes, it comes from westerly flow from a folding over PNA ridge. Obviously this is all about to change in the coming days 

I've had that same thought for a few weeks already, and the snow and cold down south just reinforced it. I remember 86-87 being like that in SEMI. Meanwhile, I've had 7 straight days of measurable snow totaling 5.9" and its 10F right now. Like in late Dec, we get our best snow cover leading into a torch - sigh.

[Snowstorms]

13 hours ago, Cary67 said:

What's your seasonal total?

I'm at 23.5" for the season. YYZ is at 19", about 20 minutes south of me. Running 8" below normal right now. But managed to get ahead of our futility season which was 2011-12 with only 16.9". 

[mississaugasnow]

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I'm at 23.5" for the season. YYZ is at 19", about 20 minutes south of me. Running 8" below normal right now. But managed to get ahead of our futility season which was 2011-12 with only 16.9". 

Hamilton is at 10" so far. Big difference the last 2 seasons across the GTA 

[cyclone77]

Tonight/tomorrow's event should be the best precip event since early November.  Looking like a solid chance at an inch of rain.  

[A-L-E-K]

11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Tonight/tomorrow's event should be the best precip event since early November.  Looking like a solid chance at an inch of rain.  

some near miss south potential imby but i'll survive, will be nice to rinse some salt away tho

[hawkeye_wx]

28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Tonight/tomorrow's event should be the best precip event since early November.  Looking like a solid chance at an inch of rain.  

Models still disagree about Cedar Rapids.  We could get a half inch or nothing.  Most models have trended south, but a few are hanging on.

[dmc76]

If it wasn’t for Lake Michigan Detroit would be at 5 to 7 inches on the year. Thankfully we do have Lake Michigan to our west and much of SEMI has had 12-30” 

[A-L-E-K]

hoping we can overperform today

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Or stay under the record until mid-March, then get a wrist-slashing 10" of cement that melts the next day, making the seasonal snowfall not look that bad years down the road, when it fact it sucked badly.

I actually think of this everytime someone prematurely mentions futility. Any time someone is discussing futility for a location before late April, its being compared to past seasons that have already happened, in full. Multiple times in past years there have been some unthinkably low snowfall totals til a March snowstorm hits. I know in my lifetime Ive never seen anything close to futility for Detroit. We need EVERYTHING to go completely wrong AND the lakes to shutoff.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, dmc76 said:

If it wasn’t for Lake Michigan Detroit would be at 5 to 7 inches on the year. Thankfully we do have Lake Michigan to our west and much of SEMI has had 12-30” 

Lake MI is a defining characteristic of our climate. Not just for lake effect flakes, but for how it affects minor clippers/other disturbances as they cross. As frustrating as a zzz pattern is, its great to see all the mood flakes.

Going over this seasons snowfall, 14.1" to date at DTW, much of it was lake effect or enhanced, but the largest snowfall (3.7" on Jan 10/11) was purely synoptic. January saw snow fall on 26 of the first 29 days, even though the total on the month is 8.7". 

We definitely squeezed the most of the light amounts of snow, having some amount of snow on the ground (T-4") pretty much all month, so I dont want to hear any complaints about "stat padding" snowfalls that melt quickly in Mar or Apr 

This winter has definitely been different. There are a few of us who enjoy the cold/white even tho its dry, but definitely seems to be a lot are about snow only (not cold). Thats certainly fine, but then really, outside of last winter, SE MI has nothing to complain about (the post record snow era of 2007-15 has largely seen average snowfall).

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I actually think of this everytime someone prematurely mentions futility. Any time someone is discussing futility for a location before late April, its being compared to past seasons that have already happened, in full. Multiple times in past years there have been some unthinkably low snowfall totals til a March snowstorm hits. I know in my lifetime Ive never seen anything close to futility for Detroit. We need EVERYTHING to go completely wrong AND the lakes to shutoff.

Happened to me last year. I brought it up this time of the year and you said unlikely it happens haha. Then we didnt see much snow the rest of the year 

Im a bit more skeptical it happens two years in a row though 

[mississaugasnow]

Take a look at this haha. Last year at this time I said going to be one of the worst winters on record for Hamilton and you laughed (I agree anything can happen but I ended up being right) 

This is starting to look like another top 10 least amount of snow year at Hamilton airport 

https://hamilton.weatherstats.ca/charts/snow-wyearly.html

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lake MI is a defining characteristic of our climate. Not just for lake effect flakes, but for how it affects minor clippers/other disturbances as they cross. As frustrating as a zzz pattern is, its great to see all the mood flakes.

Going over this seasons snowfall, 14.1" to date at DTW, much of it was lake effect or enhanced, but the largest snowfall (3.7" on Jan 10/11) was purely synoptic. January saw snow fall on 26 of the first 29 days, even though the total on the month is 8.7". 

We definitely squeezed the most of the light amounts of snow, having some amount of snow on the ground (T-4") pretty much all month, so I dont want to hear any complaints about "stat padding" snowfalls that melt quickly in Mar or Apr 

This winter has definitely been different. There are a few of us who enjoy the cold/white even tho its dry, but definitely seems to be a lot are about snow only (not cold). Thats certainly fine, but then really, outside of last winter, SE MI has nothing to complain about (the post record snow era of 2007-15 has largely seen average snowfall).

This winter does feel much better compared to last year. The entire month has seen about 1-4" on the ground and cold. So it's allowed winter activities to happen and for winter to feel like winter. 

[nvck]

Not sure if anyone else uses this site, but https://www.anyawos.com/metar/WeatherNexus is a pretty good resource for up-to-the-minute obs from a bunch of small airports around the midwest, but mostly in MI and MN.

[Brian D]

Looking for a good hit this weekend. IMBY only 10.5" for the season which is 2" more than the co-op site on the shoreline. Ugly!

 

[TheClimateChanger]

20 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

As noted elsewhere in this thread, MSP tied a record of 47F yesterday.

Much more widespread record-breaking warmth is expected tomorrow in the Midwest. Some records to watch for 1/30, from long POR sites, with current forecasted values in bold.

Minneapolis: 48F Forecast: 49F

St. Cloud: 44F Forecast: 44F

Eau Claire: 50F Forecast: 48F

Madison: 47F Forecast: 54F

Milwaukee: 53F Forecast: 54F

Rockford: 52F Forecast: 54F

Chicago: 55F Forecast: 53F

Green Bay: 42F Forecast: 53F

Wausau: 43F Forecast: 48F

Rhinelander: 44F Forecast: 44F

Most notably, at Green Bay, the forecast for tomorrow is a whopping 11F warmer than the daily record and just 3F shy of the January monthly record. Quite uncharacteristic for the home of Lambeau Field in January.

As expected, the warmth has expanded over the Upper Midwest.

As of shortly before noon local time, Madison and La Crosse were up to 50F, and Green Bay was at 46F, all of which are new daily records. The temperature at Rockford read 51F, one shy of the daily record.

The all-time monthly record at La Crosse is 57F, set on January 1, 1897, January 3, 1874, and on January 25, 1981, which could be in jeopardy this afternoon. Of note, the all-time monthly record for February was set just last year, when the proverbial mercury reached a scorching 69F on February 27. Some would say that's a very nice number.

[TheClimateChanger]

17 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

As expected, the warmth has expanded over the Upper Midwest.

As of shortly before noon local time, Madison and La Crosse were up to 50F, and Green Bay was at 46F, all of which are new daily records. The temperature at Rockford read 51F, one shy of the daily record.

The all-time monthly record at La Crosse is 57F, set on January 1, 1897, January 3, 1874, and on January 25, 1981, which could be in jeopardy this afternoon. Of note, the all-time monthly record for February was set just last year, when the proverbial mercury reached a scorching 69F on February 27. Some would say that's a very nice number.

The all-time record for December at La Crosse is also quite recent, dating back to December 15, 2021, when the thermometer also reached 69F. So if the thermometer is able to crest this 57F hump, all three winter monthly record highs would have been set within the past 4 winters. It will certainly be a tall task, with the 57F record holding strong for an astounding 151 years, and only being able to be matched twice in that interval. To put this into perspective, the first time this record was set, it was less than 100 years from the American Revolution and only about a decade from the end of the U.S. Civil War!

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Happened to me last year. I brought it up this time of the year and you said unlikely it happens haha. Then we didnt see much snow the rest of the year 

Im a bit more skeptical it happens two years in a row though 

 

2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Take a look at this haha. Last year at this time I said going to be one of the worst winters on record for Hamilton and you laughed (I agree anything can happen but I ended up being right) 

This is starting to look like another top 10 least amount of snow year at Hamilton airport 

https://hamilton.weatherstats.ca/charts/snow-wyearly.html

Well, any given year a futility record is unlikely. Meaning the all time lowest snowfall, because it a 1 in 100-150 shot (depending on the record length). Top 20 is another story, but usually when I hear someone talk about futility I assume they mean all time #1. And when you live in a place where it snows through April, its hard to discuss that in January not knowing the pattern the next several months.

How far back do Hamilton records go? I bookmarked the link because its so hard for me to find Canadian records/data lol.

Looking at Detroits snow data, which goes back 145 years, of the top 20, I have experienced 7 of the top 15 snowiest winters on record, and the worst I have experienced is the 16th least snowy.

#1 all time snowiest winter (2013-14)

#5 snowiest winter (2007-08)

#6 snowiest winter (2010-11)

#10 snowiest winter (2008-09)

#11 snowiest winter (2004-05)

#14 snowiest winter (2017-18)

#15 snowiest winter (2002-03)

*****

#16 least snowy winter (1997-98)

#18 least snowy winter (2023-24)

#19 least snowy winter (1999-00)

#20 least snowy winter (2003-04)

[TheClimateChanger]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

Well, any given year a futility record is unlikely. Meaning the all time lowest snowfall, because it a 1 in 100-150 shot (depending on the record length). Top 20 is another story, but usually when I hear someone talk about futility I assume they mean all time #1. And when you live in a place where it snows through April, its hard to discuss that in January not knowing the pattern the next several months.

How far back do Hamilton records go? I bookmarked the link because its so hard for me to find Canadian records/data lol.

Looking at Detroits snow data, which goes back 145 years, of the top 20, I have experienced 7 of the top 15 snowiest winters on record, and the worst I have experienced is the 16th least snowy.

#1 all time snowiest winter (2013-14)

#5 snowiest winter (2007-08)

#6 snowiest winter (2010-11)

#10 snowiest winter (2008-09)

#11 snowiest winter (2004-05)

#14 snowiest winter (2017-18)

#15 snowiest winter (2002-03)

*****

#16 least snowy winter (1997-98)

#18 least snowy winter (2023-24)

#19 least snowy winter (1999-00)

#20 least snowy winter (2003-04)

The site he links to can be expanded out to 1959-60.

It gives this for the 10 least snowy winters, but the early data appears to be inaccurate. The value for 1961-62, in particular, appears implausibly low.

The 10 snowiest winters are given below.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The site he links to can be expanded out to 1959-60.

It gives this for the 10 least snowy winters, but the early data appears to be inaccurate. The value for 1961-62, in particular, appears implausibly low.

The 10 snowiest winters are given below.

Of those top least, 1961-62 (the 1st) is the only one that seems sketch, the other ones were all known to be low snow winters in much of the region.

The only thing I can say about 1961-62 is that it was a very low snow season thru Jan here, but then a snowy Feb saved it (at Detroit, 15.7" of the seasons 28.1" fell in Feb). I suppose its possible that Hamilton shared in the slow Dec/Jan but then missed out on the snowy Feb, but id think some M data is more likely.

[michsnowfreak]

At 45F as of 2pm, today will easily be the warmest day of January at DTW. Snow depth is down to a T at 7am, the first T depth at 7am since Jan 10th. The last day with 0 depth was Jan 2nd. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Temperatures continue to climb across the region, with locations such as Green Bay and La Crosse just a couple of degrees shy of all-time monthly record high temperatures.

La Crosse, Wisconsin

Green Bay, Wisconsin

At Madison, the temperature has climbed to 54F. Allegedly, it reached 62F on January 26, 1944, but this seems dubious. The only other warmer January days at Madison were January 31, 1989 (56F), January 27, 2002 (55F) and January 24, 1981 (55F).

[TheClimateChanger]

16 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Temperatures continue to climb across the region, with locations such as Green Bay and La Crosse just a couple of degrees shy of all-time monthly record high temperatures.

La Crosse, Wisconsin

Green Bay, Wisconsin

At Madison, the temperature has climbed to 54F. Allegedly, it reached 62F on January 26, 1944, but this seems dubious. The only other warmer January days at Madison were January 31, 1989 (56F), January 27, 2002 (55F) and January 24, 1981 (55F).

Edit: Not sure what happened, but apparently the wrong values were showing when I first looked at it, maybe it didn't update or I clicked on the wrong location. The record at Madison is 58F from January 6, 1880, which I confirmed on ThreadEx. NowData looks correct when I checked again, so I'm not sure what I was looking at previously.

Anyways, that one is probably safe, but still looking like a top 5-ish warmest January day at Madison, since 1869.

[A-L-E-K]

cloudy and underperforming

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Overpreforming at MSP. Smashed the old record of 48, it’s currently 51. Naturally I played hooky from work and took the 3 year old skiing today.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The all-time record for December at La Crosse is also quite recent, dating back to December 15, 2021, when the thermometer also reached 69F. So if the thermometer is able to crest this 57F hump, all three winter monthly record highs would have been set within the past 4 winters. It will certainly be a tall task, with the 57F record holding strong for an astounding 151 years, and only being able to be matched twice in that interval. To put this into perspective, the first time this record was set, it was less than 100 years from the American Revolution and only about a decade from the end of the U.S. Civil War!

New January monthly record confirmed at La Crosse, with the temperature up to 58F as of the top of the hour, eclipsing the 151-year-old record. Overperforming at Madison, with the temperature now up to 57F, just one shy of the monthly record set in 1880.