January 2025 General Discussion

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh dont get me wrong. As an all-things winter lover I enjoy the pattern a lot too. Snowflakes falling yet again today. I wish there was more snow, but theres been pretty consistent light snowcover and near daily snowfall this month. The only issue I have is that we are really not getting a great clipper pattern like we could with this cold NW flow, so im looking forward to the pattern change as we head into Feb. Obviously it will come with the usual of some people freaking out over random OP model runs, but pattern & climo recognition makes it clear. The projected pattern will increase 3 things for our are: variablity, the chance of rainers/thaws, but most importantly, the chance of some good snowstorms. Its a gamble for sure, but more times than not this pattern will yield a decent amount of snow, even if it means seeing bare ground and rain again at some point.

Additionally, the GLs influence will greatly diminish if we continued much longer with this NW strong cold flow.  Ice cover is growing.  Time to go to the casino pattern and take our chances    

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Everyday 

Even DTX gets it lol:

Friday night through Saturday night will be one of those MI winter
days with multiple chances for show showers, higher POPs, but with
little QPF/snow amounts most likely.

[dmc76]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Even DTX gets it lol:

Friday night through Saturday night will be one of those MI winter
days with multiple chances for show showers, higher POPs, but with
little QPF/snow amounts most likely.

Picked up 3/4” today so far. 

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh dont get me wrong. As an all-things winter lover I enjoy the pattern a lot too. Snowflakes falling yet again today. I wish there was more snow, but theres been pretty consistent light snowcover and near daily snowfall this month. The only issue I have is that we are really not getting a great clipper pattern like we could with this cold NW flow, so im looking forward to the pattern change as we head into Feb. Obviously it will come with the usual of some people freaking out over random OP model runs, but pattern & climo recognition makes it clear. The projected pattern will increase 3 things for our are: variablity, the chance of rainers/thaws, but most importantly, the chance of some good snowstorms. Its a gamble for sure, but more times than not this pattern will yield a decent amount of snow, even if it means seeing bare ground and rain again at some point.

i agree, I'm in the same boat as you. Although its been nice seeing the consistent light snows everyday, it's getting a bit frustrating now. And I'm a huge winter weenie like you.

I'm not sure about Detroit, but normals aside, this cold hasn't been anything extreme. For us its been a seasonably cold pattern. Our average low is around 13 and YYZ has only gotten below 13, 8 times so far. Our coldest wind direction is usually from the NW or due N and the wind direction this month has primarily been from the SW or WSW. That plus the consistent cold cover due to the warm lakes has prevented us from dropping below 13F more frequently. Just an overall crappy pattern tbh. 

Although there's been some glimmer of hope on the models for a possible pattern change, its constantly being pushed back. Remember 2 weeks ago the models had a nice -EPO/Aleutian ridge pattern around Jan 20 and its now Jan 24 and the pattern remains unchanged. 

[Lightning]

55 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Picked up 3/4” today so far. 

Only a 1/4" here but still nice to have some snow falling on and off

[roardog]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh dont get me wrong. As an all-things winter lover I enjoy the pattern a lot too. Snowflakes falling yet again today. I wish there was more snow, but theres been pretty consistent light snowcover and near daily snowfall this month. The only issue I have is that we are really not getting a great clipper pattern like we could with this cold NW flow, so im looking forward to the pattern change as we head into Feb. Obviously it will come with the usual of some people freaking out over random OP model runs, but pattern & climo recognition makes it clear. The projected pattern will increase 3 things for our are: variablity, the chance of rainers/thaws, but most importantly, the chance of some good snowstorms. Its a gamble for sure, but more times than not this pattern will yield a decent amount of snow, even if it means seeing bare ground and rain again at some point.

You say that now but wait until there's a 50 degree rain that wipes out your snowpack in one day. lol

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

You say that now but wait until there's a 50 degree rain that wipes out your snowpack in one day. lol

Then he'll roll out pic's from the glory years to get thru it, lol

[RogueWaves]

I need 4.7" during this final week of the month to have an average January. Can these clippers pull it off?? Stay tuned!

[WestMichigan]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

I need 4.7" during this final week of the month to have an average January. Can these clippers pull it off?? Stay tuned!

The lake has been good to us in the western part of the state.  Already above average for the month and have exceeded the entire total from last year also.

[mississaugasnow]

4 hours ago, roardog said:

You say that now but wait until there's a 50 degree rain that wipes out your snowpack in one day. lol

haha thats okay. Most of the GTA only has 1-4" on the ground so not like we're losing a sweet snowpack.

Im also intrigued in river flooding if the pattern flips fast enough with ice jams 

[Brian D]

1" of snow from that batch that moved through yesterday. Just snow showers/flurries today. Milder wx on tap with another clipper potential Tues that should net another 1-3". Feb 2 system seems ingrained in the models. That could put down 6"(more or less) around here. Would be welcome if it pans. 

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

i agree, I'm in the same boat as you. Although its been nice seeing the consistent light snows everyday, it's getting a bit frustrating now. And I'm a huge winter weenie like you.

I'm not sure about Detroit, but normals aside, this cold hasn't been anything extreme. For us its been a seasonably cold pattern. Our average low is around 13 and YYZ has only gotten below 13, 8 times so far. Our coldest wind direction is usually from the NW or due N and the wind direction this month has primarily been from the SW or WSW. That plus the consistent cold cover due to the warm lakes has prevented us from dropping below 13F more frequently. Just an overall crappy pattern tbh. 

Although there's been some glimmer of hope on the models for a possible pattern change, its constantly being pushed back. Remember 2 weeks ago the models had a nice -EPO/Aleutian ridge pattern around Jan 20 and its now Jan 24 and the pattern remains unchanged. 

The cold in Detroit has been impressive but nothing record breaking. Certainly more than seasonable cold. January is running a temp departure of -5.0° to date. If we go this last week without hitting 40°, this will only be the 10th January in 152 years of record to not hit 40°.

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, roardog said:

You say that now but wait until there's a 50 degree rain that wipes out your snowpack in one day. lol

Oh believe me. I'll be pissed. Why I said its like gambling. Rolling the dice on a pattern that is more favorable for better snowstorms still has the risk of losing the snowcover AND not producing. In which case...I'll be in a very, um, unpleasant mood.

[michsnowfreak]

Took a walk along the Detroit River yesterday. The ice looks so dang cool.

In the first pic, the far distance horizon left of center looks towards Detroit, and the far right horizon is Canada.

[TheClimateChanger]

This has been a good month to see the impact of "fake" effect snow on snow depth.

If we look at Erie, we see 31.3 inches of snow fell this month, with depth down to 1" despite temperatures largely staying below freezing for the month. Of note, 10" of snow cover on the 4th evaporated/sublimated down to 2" by the 10th despite temperatures remaining well below the freezing point over that entire stretch.

Meanwhile, at Pittsburgh, snowfall has been less than half of that at Erie, but yesterday's snow depth was 5x larger, despite a similar temperature profile and lying more than 1.5 degrees south of Erie. Over the 4th through the 10th, while Erie's snow depth dropped 8", snow depth at Pittsburgh increased by 1 inch.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

We can see a similar effect if we compare Toledo and Erie.

At Erie, nearly 93 inches of snow has fallen this season, with a current depth of 1".

At Toledo, 5.7" of seasonal snowfall has yielded an identical depth of 1 inch.

[TheClimateChanger]

We can also see how snowfall is not the best measure of the harshness of a winter, especially with the inflated measurements of the present.

Again, if we look at Erie, we see the seasonal snowfall to date ranks as 7th most. By comparison, 1977 had 85.0 inches to date, and 1945 had 80.9 inches (but with 2 dates missing - more on that later).

But if we compare this month to January 1945 & January 1977, we can see those months were miles harsher than the present one.

In January 1945, xMacis registers a total of 31.7 inches; however, it appears to have deleted a large snowstorm from January 1st. Nearly 1" of liquid equivalent fell on the 1st, with a high of 36 and low of 10. Snow depth was 18" on the 2nd. Snow depths that month ranged from 13 to 26 inches, with an average depth of 17.1 inches.

In January 1977, 29.1 inches of snow fell, with depths ranging from 4 to 18 inches all month long, and an average depth of 10.4 inches.

[TheClimateChanger]

This is why, in my opinion, a composite index factoring in winter temperatures, snowfall, average snow depths, and days of snow cover - similar to that proposed by user @beavis1729- is superior to an emphasis solely on reported snowfall, especially when factoring in site location changes and changes in measurement procedures.

[roardog]

The seasonal snowfall is meaningless when it comes to current depth unless you live in an area that never goes above freezing the entire winter. It was in the 50s with high dew points after Christmas. No snow cover was surviving that. 

[sbnwx85]

Here’s where all the snow is.

[madwx]

Overperforming nicely.  Point had 32 but already up to 36 with a couple more hours to warm up

[hawkeye_wx]

Our low-water 3" of snow is vanishing quickly today.

[TheClimateChanger]

For those interested in futility records, caution is certainly warranted with older records.

If we take Moline, Illinois, for example, we see snowfall through today's date appears to be 10th lowest. But note, there's one day missing for 1936-1937 (more on that later). The one day missing for 2024-2025 is today which isn't yet complete (but no snowfall is expected).

If it can make it through the end of the month, that would bump up to 5th place.

However, there are data irregularities and missing data affecting some of the older years.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

For those interested in futility records, caution is certainly warranted with older records.

If we take Moline, Illinois, for example, we see snowfall through today's date appears to be 10th lowest. But note, there's one day missing for 1936-1937 (more on that later). The one day missing for 2024-2025 is today which isn't yet complete (but no snowfall is expected).

If it can make it through the end of the month, that would bump up to 5th place.

However, there are data irregularities and missing data affecting some of the older years.

 

 

Indeed, if we look at the seasonal snowfall "futility" records at Moline, we find the following:

As noted, 1936-37 is missing data. In fact, we can see a rather significant snowfall appears to have struck the Moline area in early December 1936, but is not reflected in the digitized records. Given the amount of precipitation noted, it is very likely this one event would bump 1936-37 out of the low spot.

But the records in January have at least a couple dates where snow depth increases with no measurable snow recorded by the observer!

Another date with possible rain to snow is also missing from February...

So, yes, 1936-37 likely saw unusually sparse snowfall at Moline, but 9.9" - NO WAY, JOSE!

[IWXwx]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This has been a good month to see the impact of "fake" effect snow on snow depth.

If we look at Erie, we see 31.3 inches of snow fell this month, with depth down to 1" despite temperatures largely staying below freezing for the month. Of note, 10" of snow cover on the 4th evaporated/sublimated down to 2" by the 10th despite temperatures remaining well below the freezing point over that entire stretch.

Meanwhile, at Pittsburgh, snowfall has been less than half of that at Erie, but yesterday's snow depth was 5x larger, despite a similar temperature profile and lying more than 1.5 degrees south of Erie. Over the 4th through the 10th, while Erie's snow depth dropped 8", snow depth at Pittsburgh increased by 1 inch.

 

 

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

We can also see how snowfall is not the best measure of the harshness of a winter, especially with the inflated measurements of the present.

Again, if we look at Erie, we see the seasonal snowfall to date ranks as 7th most. By comparison, 1977 had 85.0 inches to date, and 1945 had 80.9 inches (but with 2 dates missing - more on that later).

But if we compare this month to January 1945 & January 1977, we can see those months were miles harsher than the present one.

In January 1945, xMacis registers a total of 31.7 inches; however, it appears to have deleted a large snowstorm from January 1st. Nearly 1" of liquid equivalent fell on the 1st, with a high of 36 and low of 10. Snow depth was 18" on the 2nd. Snow depths that month ranged from 13 to 26 inches, with an average depth of 17.1 inches.

In January 1977, 29.1 inches of snow fell, with depths ranging from 4 to 18 inches all month long, and an average depth of 10.4 inches.

I thought that argument was over several years ago.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Indeed, if we look at the seasonal snowfall "futility" records at Moline, we find the following:

As noted, 1936-37 is missing data. In fact, we can see a rather significant snowfall appears to have struck the Moline area in early December 1936, but is not reflected in the digitized records. Given the amount of precipitation noted, it is very likely this one event would bump 1936-37 out of the low spot.

But the records in January have at least a couple dates where snow depth increases with no measurable snow recorded by the observer!

Another date with possible rain to snow is also missing from February...

So, yes, 1936-37 likely saw unusually sparse snowfall at Moline, but 9.9" - NO WAY, JOSE!

Looking at 1901-1902, we see some of these same irregularities. What I suspect is happening is they are measuring the change in depth, but used to report depth to the nearest tenth of an inch. So a 0.2" snowfall might represent a change in depth of 0.4" to 0.6" and appear as a jump of a Trace depth to 1" today. Of course, the 1936-37 are anomalous even then. Because it's not physically possible for the depth to increase with no snow at all!

It actually turns out, however, that 1901-1902 was not a bad winter at all in Moline. January was bitter cold with a solid snowpack in place for the final 12 days of the month.

The meteorological winter (DJF) mean temperature of 21.4F ranks as 32nd coldest (out of 151 years). Incredibly - and highlighting the absurdity of these numbers - the number of days during meteorological winter (DJF) with at least 5" of snow on the ground is tied for 16th most on record. Special recognition of 1892-1893 for ranking second on this list, despite missing the entire month of December. Anyways, 27 days of 5"+ snowfall (including 21 with at least 6") in a winter where 11" fell.

 

 

[sbnwx85]

Poor Omaha

 

[RCNYILWX]

Today's overperforming temps and winds are a harbinger of things to come on Monday. 21z RAP looks realistic and it might still be a bit too cool. Thinking 45-50F is plausible in the LOT CWA.

Given that we had low to locally mid 40s highs today with wind gusts up to 35-40 mph, Monday has an even better setup for strong west-southwest winds, so feeling pretty confident that we'll need a Wind Advisory at least for areas near and north of I-80.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk

[michsnowfreak]

After a low of 11° DTW skyrocketed to 35° under sunny skies. Went sledding today and i had as much fun as the kids.

[dmc76]

Everyday!!  31-32 and full sun almost all day… But hold on!! Wicked evening snow. 25 out 26 days I believe of snow.