Winter Banter 24-25

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 hours ago, Santa Claus said:

three inches is actually plenty of snow most people say they don’t need more than that

People have been saying this 

[Santa Claus]

42 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

People have been saying this 

that's actually an above average snowfall

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wish we could get lake effect snow here off of West Hempstead Lake lol.

What's the smallest lake that lake effect snow has been known to occur near?

Not sure but, we really need to build a huge manmade lake in northeast Pennsylvania. Maybe from Scranton to the NYS border, the bigger the better. I know you and several others have a house there but, to hell with the Poconos. 

[Rjay]

[psv88]

We tried to tell em! 
 

a lot of people forecasting with their “gut” lately. Weird how that didn’t work out 

[NorthShoreWx]

Neither the GFS nor the Euro are snowy, but the 12z/7 Euro is noticeably colder over the next 2 weeks with the coldest at the end of the model run.  If the EC is right, it's going to end up a very cold January.

This winter will not come anywhere near challenging 1977, but a little refresher for those even younger  than me:

Aside from the record cold, especially during January in the Midwest and East, 76-77 featured at best average snowfall in this area and maybe below average.  The biggest snowfall might have approached 6" but we had near end to end snow cover.  If you only look at the snowfall records it looks like just another lame 70s winter with no extra days off from school (unless your school heated with natural gas).

So if the Euro delivers on mostly below 0⁰C weather and a smattering of light snowfalls, count your blessings after the previous 2 winters.

If you enjoy pond hockey on the coastal plain, you could finally get another chance at it this winter.  You just might need to clear a little bit of fluffy snow off the ice first.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not sure but, we really need to build a huge manmade lake in northeast Pennsylvania. Maybe from Scranton to the NYS border, the bigger the better. I know you and several others have a house there but, to hell with the Poconos. 

I have a house there and there are medium sized lakes where there is a very minor form of lake effect lol.  I live near Bear Creek Lake and sometimes there's snow on one side of the lake and not the other.  

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Neither the GFS nor the Euro are snowy, but the 12z/7 Euro is noticeably colder over the next 2 weeks with the coldest at the end of the model run.  If the EC is right, it's going to end up a very cold January.

This winter will not come anywhere near challenging 1977, but a little refresher for those even younger  than me:

Aside from the record cold, especially during January in the Midwest and East, 76-77 featured at best average snowfall in this area and maybe below average.  The biggest snowfall might have approached 6" but we had near end to end snow cover.  If you only look at the snowfall records it looks like just another lame 70s winter with no extra days off from school (unless your school heated with natural gas).

So if the Euro delivers on mostly below 0⁰C weather and a smattering of light snowfalls, count your blessings after the previous 2 winters.

If you enjoy pond hockey on the coastal plain, you could finally get another chance at it this winter.  You just might need to clear a little bit of fluffy snow off the ice first.

 

 

Ed, wasn't January 2009 somewhat like this?

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

When the wind direction is just right from the ENE it’s happened off the Sound. In some coastal storms there’s a sound enhancement effect due to the NE winds enhancing lift via frictional convergence over LI and lingering the snow. Growing up in Long Beach as a kid I thought the Reynolds Channel could help but all it helped with was changing us to rain sooner.  

I think elevation also helps on the north shore.  I'm really jealous of that mountain they call Mount Sinai lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, TriPol said:

Huh. The PV looks somewhat different this year...

eh that image might break the rules of this G rated thread lol.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

This dude has 2.2m followers 

snow in NW Florida isn't extremely uncommon though.  Tallahassee gets small accumulating snowfalls from time to time.

 

[LibertyBell]

Seeing all those horrible fires in California, WOW!

It makes you feel helpless not being able to do anything about it.

To become an advanced species humanity MUST learn to control the weather.

That should be our first priority, learning how to control and stop life threatening storms and winds.

 

[North and West]

This dude has 2.2m followers 

He pops up in my suggested follows sometimes on twitter, but I’ll give him this: he seems to be direct and doesn’t talk in riddles like other pages. Keeps it simple and straightforward. He genuinely seems to enjoy weather. Just an enthusiast, from the limited amount I’ve seen.


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[Pellice]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Seeing all those horrible fires in California, WOW!

It makes you feel helpless not being able to do anything about it.

To become an advanced species humanity MUST learn to control the weather.

That should be our first priority, learning how to control and stop life threatening storms and winds.

 

I am horrified at the destruction.  If California comes out of this without fatalities, it will be a credit to the state and first responders.

As for controlling the weather, so far we find ourselves trying to UNDO the effects of our influence on the weather.  Climate change is having unforseeen consequences that include large-scale destructive events.  Desertification by cutting down forests - and the destruction of Amazonia is affecting the weather as well.  I await with fear the waging of war by weather (which will follow the paths of waging war by damming rivers, plowing salt into the soil, setting fires.  

We do not have the wisdom and the foresight, at least yet to, "control" the weather.

[Big Jims Videos]

I was out in the November 2018 where the Woolsey Fire broke out in the San Fernando Valley area.  Those Santa Ana winds are no joke. They were cold, came in bursts and waves, and the western end of the neighborhood was evacuated. I think we had 60 mph plus at my aunt's house in Woodland Hills and flames were visible from the driveway.  Absolutely terrifying. Was watching the coverage on ABC7 this morning. This looks way worse for that region than what I saw in 2018 and that was bad. 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, Pellice said:

I am horrified at the destruction.  If California comes out of this without fatalities, it will be a credit to the state and first responders.

As for controlling the weather, so far we find ourselves trying to UNDO the effects of our influence on the weather.  Climate change is having unforseeen consequences that include large-scale destructive events.  Desertification by cutting down forests - and the destruction of Amazonia is affecting the weather as well.  I await with fear the waging of war by weather (which will follow the paths of waging war by damming rivers, plowing salt into the soil, setting fires.  

We do not have the wisdom and the foresight, at least yet to, "control" the weather.

The problem is stopping climate change won't be enough, because with all the horrible things humanity is done, it will take at least a hundred years to fix even if we stopped emissions today (not happening), and the situation will keep getting worse, so I feel that some geoengineering will be required.

The concept of weaponizing weather for warfare is truly terrifying!

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I was out in the November 2018 where the Woolsey Fire broke out in the San Fernando Valley area.  Those Santa Ana winds are no joke. They were cold, came in bursts and waves, and the western end of the neighborhood was evacuated. I think we had 60 mph plus at my aunt's house in Woodland Hills and flames were visible from the driveway.  Absolutely terrifying. Was watching the coverage on ABC7 this morning. This looks way worse for that region than what I saw in 2018 and that was bad. 

I also think about what we had in October and the first half of November and that was bad too-- it reminded me of August 1995.

[Big Jims Videos]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I also think about what we had in October and the first half of November and that was bad too-- it reminded me of August 1995.

I was out in them here in NJ for work especially Jackson - parts of the area are a ticking time bomb especially western Ocean County with all of the senior communities. With that being said, the worst fire in NJ I've covered couldn't even be compared to what I saw out in CA during the week I was there. 

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ed, wasn't January 2009 somewhat like this?

 

Not exactly, but a little bit of similarity.  There was a few days of very cold and a couple of smaller snowfalls (in NYC; there was a larger one in central Suffolk), but it wasn't the same wall to wall sort of icebox/ snowcover.

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think elevation also helps on the north shore.  I'm really jealous of that mountain they call Mount Sinai lol.

 

In marginal events here it does help. It’s usually 2-3 degrees colder up here which can make a big difference. I remember Mar 2019 being half decent where I live now with 3-5” wet snow and nothing on the south shore. 2/28/23 is another example-5” at my house now and white rain in Long Beach. 

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Ed, wasn't January 2009 somewhat like this?

 

Central Park

Jan 77 mean 22.1, snow 13.0, precip 2.25

Jan 09 mean 27.9, snow 9.0, precip 2.98

Nov 76 41.7⁰,T, 0.64"

Nov 08 45.8⁰, T, 1.61"

Dec 76 29.9, 5.1", 2.29"

Dec 08 38.1, 6.0", 6.62"

Feb 77 33.5⁰, 5.8", 2.51"

Feb 09 36.7⁰, 4.3", 0.93"

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

In marginal events here it does help. It’s usually 2-3 degrees colder up here which can make a big difference. I remember Mar 2019 being half decent where I live now with 3-5” wet snow and nothing on the south shore. 2/28/23 is another example-5” at my house now and white rain in Long Beach. 

I've seen it go from snaining on the beach in Sunken Meadow to heavy snow with a few inches on the ground just beyond the KP bluffs.  That's about a 5 minute walk.  It was quite a walk.

[Yanksfan]

With the lack of snow in the NYC metro area (this includes NE Jersey) in recent years, I would get the usual gruff from friends and family that would say it’s climate change better get used to it. Now we finally have the cold air this winter and we still cant cash in. The response I hear is confluence and improper trough alignment, Yet when there’s a cutter forecast from 10 days out, you can bet the mortgage it’s a lock. My point is it just comes down to bad luck nothing more. 

[North and West]

With the lack of snow in the NYC metro area (this includes NE Jersey) in recent years, I would get the usual gruff from friends and family that would say it’s climate change better get used to it. Now we finally have the cold air this winter and we still cant cash in. The response I hear is confluence and improper trough alignment, Yet when there’s a cutter forecast from 10 days out, you can bet the mortgage it’s a lock. My point is it just comes down to bad luck nothing more. 

Even though you’re a Yankee fan, I’m glad you mentioned that. For everything else you mentioned - which is worthwhile and true - sometimes it just doesn’t work out, and there’s nothing more to it. It’s like a date or a job interview. You think it’s a slam dunk, and it turns out to be misaligned.


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[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I've seen it go from snaining on the beach in Sunken Meadow to heavy snow with a few inches on the ground just beyond the KP bluffs.  That's about a 5 minute walk.  It was quite a walk.

Long Island's own version of lake effect snow.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

Even though you’re a Yankee fan, I’m glad you mentioned that. For everything else you mentioned - which is worthwhile and true - sometimes it just doesn’t work out, and there’s nothing more to it. It’s like a date or a job interview. You think it’s a slam dunk, and it turns out to be misaligned.


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it's not luck though, there are a few things you need to remember

1) this area is extremely sensitive and needs things to be *just right* since we are in between two tracks and we can suffer from both suppression and overamp

2) it's much easier to have a cutter than a snowstorm because cutter tracks encompass a much larger area than what we need for a snowstorm

3) a bad pacific can easily overpower a good atlantic and the northern stream is what makes the pacific bad right now

4) and a common theme here, there are MANY more ways to miss a snowstorm than there are to get a hit.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

In marginal events here it does help. It’s usually 2-3 degrees colder up here which can make a big difference. I remember Mar 2019 being half decent where I live now with 3-5” wet snow and nothing on the south shore. 2/28/23 is another example-5” at my house now and white rain in Long Beach. 

I've noticed that you need a strong el nino to have the south shore get more snow than the north shore-- all the south shore's truly big snowstorms happened in a strong el nino-- February 1983, PD2, January 2016.