Winter Banter 24-25

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, Nibor said:

If we can’t regulate it I’m all for public shaming. Bring out the tar and feathers.

we can regulate it, the government should ban all models past 7 days

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Apparently the local NBC outlet called out one site that has been hyping coming extreme to historic cold for several weeks. Viewers were probably asking why the station wasn’t forecasting such cold.

IMO, only when meteorologists start to call out their own peers for irresponsible claims will incentives for hyping events for clicks and engagement diminish. 

This is a welcome development.

let's call out the irresponsible people who thought it was a good idea to extend models past 7 days, was this for more clicks?

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I actually blame the people who run the models, why dont they stop running models after 7 days?

Some users of weather information such as the energy, transportation, and agriculture sectors, need such information for planning purposes, imperfect as it is. They understand the limitations of the information. The general public doesn't.

Unfortunately, irresponsible actors on Social Media use the models to hype extreme solutions. In the past, I would never comment on such things. However, with almost an equal share of the public now getting its news/information from Social Media as from conventional sources and widespread perceptions that meteorologists essentially have no skill, I have decided to push back in recent years. Indeed, even at my own workplace, people ask me about some of the extreme stuff from Social Media (one, despite my advice, relies largely on X and TikTok for news/weather/information).

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

we can regulate it, the government should ban all models past 7 days

I wonder if we all feel the same way about climate change posts which have been proven wildly incorrect, as evidenced by me being on Long Island and not under 30 feet of ocean.  Should we ban those too?  Or keep them because after all they are 'directionally correct' and well-meaning?

[dseagull]

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we can regulate it, the government should ban all models past 7 days

Governments should never have the power to regulate the free and open of exchange of information. The issue here isn’t the models but the way the information is packaged. First, operational model skill begins to degrade past the 120 to 168 hr period. This is why ensembles have been created when going beyond a week. They do a good job of showing us what type of long wave or 500mb patterns we can expect. The individual short waves and storms usually don’t  come into focus until we get to 120 hrs or less. I am not sure why the modeling centers have decided to make the less reliable OP runs beyond a week available. Since the ensembles are the way to go longer range and allow some broad outlines to become known. When you understand the model biases, then more clues are made available since they can tell you what the models are missing. But anyone posting a long range OP run snowfall totals or hurricane tracks has to realize these solutions are very low probability. So perhaps the NWS can communicate to the modeling centers that these OP types of runs longer range should probably be kept in house at the modeling centers. Since I am sure they don’t appreciate the calls from media and others about these images of long range snowstorms and hurricanes posted to social media which probably won’t verify as shown in the OP runs.

[ma blizzard]

12 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

This is turning into quite a sad story, with more to come if this thing actually erupts. Dangers of a powerful long dormant volcano waking up.

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ethiopia/awash/seismic-crisis-2024/updates.html

More and more convinced this ends in some type of eruptive event as the daily seismic activity is incredible, outputting mag 4-5 quakes daily.

I want to clarify as this linked piece suggests a source claiming the activity may be tectonic in nature (which means essentially not directly from the ascent of eruptable magma), but there was evidence earlier including INSAR data which clearly showed a potential large dike intrusion. There is absolutely no guarantee this does erupt and this source could be correct, regardless it almost doesn't even matter as real harm / damage is being done now just from the seismic activity. Something I'll be watching daily from here on out - volcanoes are fascinating but also incredibly destructive, and can be so even when not actively erupting.

looks like things are picking up at the nearby Dofen volcano! very interested to see how this plays out 

[MJO812]

[North and West]

I wonder if we all feel the same way about climate change posts which have been proven wildly incorrect, as evidenced by me being on Long Island and not under 30 feet of ocean.  Should we ban those too?  Or keep them because after all they are 'directionally correct' and well-meaning?

People hear what they want to hear, so that’s why some actors keep saying it.


.

[NorthShoreWx]

The one constant in the past several days of modeling the Monday event is that the skiing in West Virginia is going to be very good.

[Volcanic Winter]

55 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

looks like things are picking up at the nearby Dofen volcano! very interested to see how this plays out 

Agreed, just catching up myself… African volcanism is fascinating because it’s a thick continental craton cut by a juvenile rift in the east, with a baby hotspot growing under the Virunga plateau (could be a future flood basalt here, hasn’t happened on earth for 16my since the Colombia River Basalts). It’s a volatile mix, and the volcanoes situated under thicker crust can grow large reserves of rhyolite and be highly explosive. Lots of major calderas from enormous eruptions in the past, like the famous Ngorongoro which was the site of a truly massive eruption. 

Sadly many of these volcanic systems are little known and poorly studied due to difficult access and lack of funding. And there’s been relative quiet during historic times (obviously excluding Nyiragongo which has been very dangerous / deadly for Goma). 

[Volcanic Winter]

54 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

looks like things are picking up at the nearby Dofen volcano! very interested to see how this plays out 

https://watchers.news/2025/01/03/powerful-vent-opens-at-dofan-volcano-as-seismic-crisis-hits-afar-region-ethiopia/

Wild!

[ma blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Agreed, just catching up myself… African volcanism is fascinating because it’s a thick continental craton cut by a juvenile rift in the east, with a baby hotspot growing under the Virunga plateau (could be a future flood basalt here, hasn’t happened on earth for 16my since the Colombia River Basalts). It’s a volatile mix, and the volcanoes situated under thicker crust can grow large reserves of rhyolite and be highly explosive. Lots of major calderas from enormous eruptions in the past, like the famous Ngorongoro which was the site of a truly massive eruption. 

Sadly many of these volcanic systems are little known and poorly studied due to difficult access and lack of funding. And there’s been relative quiet during historic times (obviously excluding Nyiragongo which has been very dangerous / deadly for Goma). 

This is the aspect I find most interesting / frustrating .. The lack of good data really makes it difficult to state with any certainty what happens next. Should be a great learning experience. 

btw really enjoy reading your volcano related posts here and at VC! 

[Volcanic Winter]

21 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

This is the aspect I find most interesting / frustrating .. The lack of good data really makes it difficult to state with any certainty what happens next. Should be a great learning experience. 

btw really enjoy reading your volcano related posts here and at VC! 

Thank you! Appreciate it!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Governments should never how the power to regulate the free and open of exchange of information. The issue here isn’t the models but the way the information is packaged. First, operational model skill begins to degrade past the 120 to 168 hr period. This is why ensembles have been created when going beyond a week. They do a good job of showing us what type of long wave or 500mb patterns we can expect. The individual short waves and storms usually don’t  come into focus until we get to 120 hrs or less. I am not sure why the modeling centers have decided to make the less reliable OP runs beyond a week available. Since the ensembles are the way to go longer range and allow some broad outlines to become known. When you understand the model biases, then more clues are made available since they can tell you what the models are missing. But anyone posting a long range OP run snowfall totals or hurricane tracks has to realize these solutions are very low probability. So perhaps the NWS can communicate to the modeling centers that these OP types of runs longer range should probably be kept in house at the modeling centers. Since I am sure they don’t appreciate the calls from media and others about these images of long range snowstorms and hurricanes posted to social media which probably won’t verify as shown in the OP runs.

But Chris, it's not really information. Specific details are so inaccurate as to be absolutely worthless that far out.  It's better to just show above or below normal temperatures and ban the posting of specific storms unless you're going to post analogs to the past (for which the late 80s are are a really good analog to now.)  People will always get excited-- we all do.  But the reality is, nothing can be known beyond 7 days except for general temperatures.  It's why the NWS posts probability forecasts.  We might not like them, but that's that can really be known that far out.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Governments should never how the power to regulate the free and open of exchange of information. The issue here isn’t the models but the way the information is packaged. First, operational model skill begins to degrade past the 120 to 168 hr period. This is why ensembles have been created when going beyond a week. They do a good job of showing us what type of long wave or 500mb patterns we can expect. The individual short waves and storms usually don’t  come into focus until we get to 120 hrs or less. I am not sure why the modeling centers have decided to make the less reliable OP runs beyond a week available. Since the ensembles are the way to go longer range and allow some broad outlines to become known. When you understand the model biases, then more clues are made available since they can tell you what the models are missing. But anyone posting a long range OP run snowfall totals or hurricane tracks has to realize these solutions are very low probability. So perhaps the NWS can communicate to the modeling centers that these OP types of runs longer range should probably be kept in house at the modeling centers. Since I am sure they don’t appreciate the calls from media and others about these images of long range snowstorms and hurricanes posted to social media which probably won’t verify as shown in the OP runs.

Definitely limit OP to 7 days at most and past that ensembles + likely analogs.

Trust me if someone said, hey, this is a late 80s pattern, all enthusiasm would have been curbed, especially for those who lived through that.

I never bought into anything because I lived through 1989-90.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I wonder if we all feel the same way about climate change posts which have been proven wildly incorrect, as evidenced by me being on Long Island and not under 30 feet of ocean.  Should we ban those too?  Or keep them because after all they are 'directionally correct' and well-meaning?

No one said that Long Island would be under 30 feet of ocean, but what we are definitely seeing is sunny day flooding, something that did not happen before. And it's not just Long Island it's happening on-- it's why military bases near the water are being moved 10+ miles inland. Norfolk and Charleston are prime examples of where this is happening.

 

 

[dseagull]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But Chris, it's not really information. Specific details are so inaccurate as to be absolutely worthless that far out.  It's better to just show above or below normal temperatures and ban the posting of specific storms unless you're going to post analogs to the past (for which the late 80s are are a really good analog to now.)  People will always get excited-- we all do.  But the reality is, nothing can be known beyond 7 days except for general temperatures.  It's why the NWS posts probability forecasts.  We might not like them, but that's that can really be known that far out.

1. Wants the government to restrict.

2. Wants to censor information.

 

Got it....  America may not be for you, sparky. 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some users of weather information such as the energy, transportation, and agriculture sectors, need such information for planning purposes, imperfect as it is. They understand the limitations of the information. The general public doesn't.

Unfortunately, irresponsible actors on Social Media use the models to hype extreme solutions. In the past, I would never comment on such things. However, with almost an equal share of the public now getting its news/information from Social Media as from conventional sources and widespread perceptions that meteorologists essentially have no skill, I have decided to push back in recent years. Indeed, even at my own workplace, people ask me about some of the extreme stuff from Social Media (one, despite my advice, relies largely on X and TikTok for news/weather/information).

I like the general broadbrushing and probability forecasts the NWS does, it's much easier to forecast general temperatures as opposed to specific storms.

In addition to that, I wonder if posting past analogs would also help.  If anyone posted late 80s analogs, I think people would immediately know what we were dealing it-- at least those of us who lived through that time period.

Such a situation where DC gets more snow than NYC isn't as uncommon as some think.  It was much more common in the past, but it can still happen.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, dseagull said:

1. Wants the government to restrict.

2. Wants to censor information.

 

Got it....  America may not be for you, sparky. 

 

Have you seen the state of this country? LOL

Is America really for anyone anymore?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

1. Wants the government to restrict.

2. Wants to censor information.

 

Got it....  America may not be for you, sparky. 

 

In case you haven't noticed, America isn't doing so well *sparky*

This isn't the time to be bragging about this country.

[FPizz]

3 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I wonder if we all feel the same way about climate change posts which have been proven wildly incorrect, as evidenced by me being on Long Island and not under 30 feet of ocean.  Should we ban those too?  Or keep them because after all they are 'directionally correct' and well-meaning?

Lots of posts whether it be here or elsewhere are terrible, it's the nature of longer range forecasting.  Even Don fails to point out all his busts over the years, especially Sandy going out to sea.  I mean, 2 respected guys here are going to bust horribly for the 1st half of this month while people laughed at Ant.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But Chris, it's not really information. Specific details are so inaccurate as to be absolutely worthless that far out.  It's better to just show above or below normal temperatures and ban the posting of specific storms unless you're going to post analogs to the past (for which the late 80s are are a really good analog to now.)  People will always get excited-- we all do.  But the reality is, nothing can be known beyond 7 days except for general temperatures.  It's why the NWS posts probability forecasts.  We might not like them, but that's that can really be known that far out.

The ensembles contain a great deal of valuable information. It’s only the OP runs beyond 5-7 days which are causing the issue. Releasing an OP run through 0-168hrs along with the ensembles from 0 to 360 hrs would be the way to go. Plus the usual lower skill ensembles past 360hrs.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ensembles contain a great deal of valuable information. It’s only the OP runs beyond 5-7 days which are causing the issue. Releasing an OP run through 0-168hrs along with the ensembles from 0 to 360 hrs would be the way to go. Plus’s the usual lower skill ensembles past 360hrs for some hints.

Yes, unfortunately most casual observers pay too much attention to the OP.

Wasn't the Euro more accurate when it was only run out to 7 days?  Can running a model longer than 7 days also influence its accuracy in less than 7 days?

 

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Lots of posts whether it be here or elsewhere are terrible, it's the nature of longer range forecasting.  Even Don fails to point out all his busts over the years, especially Sandy going out to sea.  I mean, 2 respected guys here are going to bust horribly for the 1st half of this month while people laughed at Ant.

What I said in the post on December 20th that you just quoted was correct as we are dealing with the same fast Pacific flow. Heights are verifying lower over the EPAC and WNA than forecast. So not sure what the point is that you are trying to make. The current trough undercutting the weaker ridge than forecast out West is the reason the heaviest totals with storm are getting suppressed south. Faster flow and lower heights out west allow less shortwave spacing especially with a 50/50 low and confluence. 

EPS original forecast for this week from the December 20th post you quoted

 

I was correct about the much weaker ridge and faster Pacific Jet undercutting the ridge

 

[North and West]

1. Wants the government to restrict.
2. Wants to censor information.
 
Got it....  America may not be for you, sparky. 
 

Freedom of speech. Sunshine is the best disinfectant.


.

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Lots of posts whether it be here or elsewhere are terrible, it's the nature of longer range forecasting.  Even Don fails to point out all his busts over the years, especially Sandy going out to sea.  I mean, 2 respected guys here are going to bust horribly for the 1st half of this month while people laughed at Ant.

In this thread, I already noted that my expectations for less severe cold stated in this thread will likely prove too aggressive given the latest guidance. That hasn't occurred yet, but I don't see, for example, single-digit cold occurring in NYC, PHL, or BOS

Unfortunately, the Internet Archive doesn't have Easternuswx. I believe I noted how unusual it was that Sandy would turn westward and how abnormal the AO block was at the time. The biggest bust that I can recall concerned being late with the idea that what would become the Boxing Day blizzard wasn't going to merely scrape the coast.

And, as I post daily my thoughts looking ahead, from December 24 regarding the first half of January:

The cold will begin to recede toward the end of the week.  December will likely close with above normal temperatures and periods of rain. The opening days of January will likely also begin with above normal temperatures, but it will start to turn colder.

Snowfall prospects will remain limited through the end of December. However, the pattern could become more favorable for moderate or perhaps larger snowfalls as the cold returns during the first week of January. There is growing potential for the second week of January to feature widespread cold anomalies in much of the eastern half of the CONUS and Canada south of the Hudson and James Bays.

So far:

January 1: 9.8° above normal
January 2: 3.0° above normal
January 3: 0.2° to 1.2° above normal (estimate)
January 4: Likely start of the below normal regime as per the guidance

The timing from 10 days out is in line with what is occurring.

In addition, there is ongoing light snowfall in parts of the region today. Moreover, a significant snowstorm will affect parts of the East Sunday night and Monday. The potential of the pattern is going to be realized. But New York City and northward will see little if any snow from that storm. Details can't really be pinned down that far out, so even if the exact placement of the snow is outside the Greater NYC area, the general idea that the pattern would become more favorable seems poised to be a good one.

Having said all this, there is a huge difference between busting on forecasts, and hyping events to gain engagement.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, North and West said:

Freedom of speech. Sunshine is the best disinfectant.


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Freedom of speech has and needs guard rails.  Plenty of stupid social media posters get banned for it, I know because I'm one of the ones reporting them and getting them banned.

[LibertyBell]

By the way a pretty celestial show in the SW sky right now..... the crescent moon with a very bright planet just to its right.... I think that's Venus?

 

 

[North and West]

Freedom of speech has and needs guard rails.  Plenty of stupid social media posters get banned for it, I know because I'm one of the ones reporting them and getting them banned.

Eh, I disagree. The more verboten you seemingly make something, the more alluring it becomes to some.


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