Winter Banter 24-25

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Might be a longer cycle this time though. They have stacked the deck with the media, the courts, local election officials, restrictive voter laws, intimidation, meddling, foreign interference. And the damage done may take a lot longer to recover from. And this doesn't feel like an oscillation. What was the other side of the pendulum before this? This feels more like a turn; a deviation.

Reagan-First Bush (huge increase in income disparity from trickle down economics)

Clinton correction (much stronger economy)

Bush, Jr-- Patriot Act, mass surveillance, torture

Obama-- (he was sort of in the middle so some of the above bad policies continued, but some improved, the economy got better after the big recession).

Trump first term-- dysfunctional, but carried over the strong economy from the end of the Obama term until the Covid pandemic began.

Biden-- brought us out of the Covid pandemic, passed historic legislation to combat climate change, but inflation was high (not his fault-- a holdover from the pandemic.)

Trump second term-- a trainwreck so far.

 

I see what you're saying about  a wide deviation, but I'm looking at the big picture over several decades, I think we get corrections following bad administrations, so hopefully it happens again.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Europe has its faults too. There's too much nationalism and cultural pride to allow full cooperation between countries or cultural harmony within ethnically diverse nations. And they love their traditions, which can slow the pace of modernization. We had the chance to be the best of both words here, with our melting pot culture. We could have set the example by observing and adopting the best aspects of other places. Instead we seem intent on wanting to be the worst.

Yes, although I think the EU was starting to fix the cultural pride issue.  Nothing wrong with cultural pride but nationalism is a huge problem.

I love their high standards for food though, I get a lot of my food imported from Europe.  Tastes much better and doesn't make me sick.

None of the artificial crap that is used here.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Reagan-First Bush (huge increase in income disparity from trickle down economics)

Clinton correction (much stronger economy)

Bush, Jr-- Patriot Act, mass surveillance, torture

Obama-- (he was sort of in the middle so some of the above bad policies continued, but some improved, the economy got better after the big recession).

Trump first term-- dysfunctional, but carried over the strong economy from the end of the Obama term until the Covid pandemic began.

Biden-- brought us out of the Covid pandemic, passed historic legislation to combat climate change, but inflation was high (not his fault-- a holdover from the pandemic.)

Trump second term-- a trainwreck so far.

I see what you're saying about  a wide deviation, but I'm looking at the big picture over several decades, I think we get corrections following bad administrations, so hopefully it happens again.

Yes we've swung from republican presidents to democratic and back again. But all of them before Trump genuinely tried to be President of the people. They had our interests in mind even if their policies were sometimes misguided. They respected our history and our institutions. How someone cannot see that Trump is a career con man who cares only about himself completely baffles me.

And good observation that the US has had stronger economies during democratic presidencies over the past 40 years.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yes we've swung from republican presidents to democratic and back again. But all of them before Trump genuinely tried to be President of the people. They had our interests in mind even if their policies were sometimes misguided. They respected our history and our institutions. How someone cannot see that Trump is a career con man who cares only about himself completely baffles me.

And good observation that the US has had stronger economies during democratic presidencies over the past 40 years.

He's definitely a con man and has been throughout his life, but some people can find excuses for anyone-- until it happens to them.

I wish there was a meter to measure societal empathy, for a variety of reasons it's at a low point now.

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

He's definitely a con man and has been throughout his life, but some people can find excuses for anyone-- until it happens to them.

I wish there was a meter to measure societal empathy, for a variety of reasons it's at a low point now.

 

Nothing will ever happen to them that's his fault 

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

He's definitely a con man and has been throughout his life, but some people can find excuses for anyone-- until it happens to them

Yeah I guess we actually know the answer - tribalism. If we perceive someone to be on our team - in our family - we will defend them and rationalize their bad behavior. While at the same time, someone on a different team is vilified for trivial actions or imaginary behavior.

[North and West]

I think for you guys to get your points across better is to have more humility rather than insulting others.

I think a lot of what you said is valuable and I agree with - insane defense spending, environmental healing, food health and safety, a tax code that favors ultra wealthy - but the messaging is losing. It sounds religious. More in the aspect of “I’m right, you’re not only wrong, but in fact too dumb to realize I’m right.”

I mean, we’re glossing over the recent issue of the pain of school closures, not being able to question Covid’s origins, and lying about Biden’s mental deterioration after many of us have had elderly loved ones that we’ve seen decline with age.

People don’t have to be in lockstep with everything.

Humility should be acknowledging your own mistakes and poor choices, but showing why the path you’re promoting today is beneficial and helpful to the future.


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[LibertyBell]

Just now, eduggs said:

Yeah I guess we actually know the answer - tribalism. If we perceive someone to be on our team - in our family - we will defend them and rationalize their bad behavior. While at the same time, someone on a different team is vilified for trivial actions or imaginary behavior.

Yes I've noticed this too.  A sad way to find out society isn't as advanced as we thought it was.

I don't think society itself backslid, this always existed in the shadowy corners of society, but got emboldened by the actions of the people *in charge*

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

I think for you guys to get your points across better is to have more humility rather than insulting others.

I think a lot of what you said is valuable and I agree with - insane defense spending, environmental healing, food health and safety, a tax code that favors ultra wealthy - but the messaging is losing. It sounds religious. More in the aspect of “I’m right, you’re not only wrong, but in fact too dumb to realize I’m right.”

I mean, we’re glossing over the recent issue of the pain of school closures, not being able to question Covid’s origins, and lying about Biden’s mental deterioration after many of us have had elderly loved ones that we’ve seen decline with age.

People don’t have to be in lockstep with everything.

Humility should be acknowledging your own mistakes and poor choices, but showing why the path you’re promoting today is beneficial and helpful to the future.


.

Nothing to disagree with here. I don't remember seeing myself using the right vs wrong ideology, most of my observations were in hindsight.  It's always easier to analyze something after it happens.

What's going on right now though is pretty obvious.

 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

I think for you guys to get your points across better is to have more humility rather than insulting others.

I think a lot of what you said is valuable and I agree with - insane defense spending, environmental healing, food health and safety, a tax code that favors ultra wealthy - but the messaging is losing. It sounds religious. More in the aspect of “I’m right, you’re not only wrong, but in fact too dumb to realize I’m right.”

I mean, we’re glossing over the recent issue of the pain of school closures, not being able to question Covid’s origins, and lying about Biden’s mental deterioration after many of us have had elderly loved ones that we’ve seen decline with age.

People don’t have to be in lockstep with everything.

Humility should be acknowledging your own mistakes and poor choices, but showing why the path you’re promoting today is beneficial and helpful to the future.


.

Humility failed. We tried for 8 years. Longer even. If you want, pick an issue and we'll talk about it. We try to do the right thing. Sometimes it works well, sometimes not. The other side will attack us either way - no matter what. Oh and we replaced our aging candidate. The other side did not. And when was the last time Trump admitted a mistake about anything?

Sometimes both sides are not equally to blame. There are not always two equally strong argument to an issue.

Be fair, and step up.

[eduggs]

Wait so humility is what wins elections? Admitting mistakes? Acknowledging the other side has legitimate arguments and their ignorance and delusions fueled by hate mongering should actually be coddled? Hmmmm, tell that to Jimmy Carter, Hillary Clinton, and Al Gore.

DJ Trump won 2 elections. He exhibited none of the qualities you are espousing.

Coordinated hate mongering against liberals for 30 years (TV, radio) has only accelerated with social media. No amount of humble discussion will ever be able to undo that. You are incredibly naive if you think our messaging is the problem.

[eduggs]

What we know about Trump:

- Advisors say he can't grasp details in meetings - needs simple summaries or a picture
- Age = 78 years (shows evidence of fatigue and senility)
- Credibly accused of revealing classified secrets
- An obvious national security risk
- Maintains an obvious conflict of interest between Presidency and business interest
- champion of nepotism and cronyism
- Plausibly accused of money laundering
- Plausibly accused of financial fraud (and many other crimes that I won't list)
- Convicted of (felony) falsification of business records (to cheat the American voting public)
- Found liable for sexual abuse in civil trial
- Plausibly accused of rape by several women
- Slept with numerous prostitutes
- Encouraged a riot at the US Capitol
- Encouraged violence against women, immigrants, judges, and political enemies

[eduggs]

The abbreviated list is only a subset. And it does not include all the disastrous policy initiatives and political appointments he has made. All of the destructive tweets and speeches that have undermined faith in the bedrocks of our democracy.

Oh but, but but... democrats tried to minimize the significance of Biden's signs of aging because they didn't want Trump to win the election. See, they suck too.

[North and West]

I gotta be honest. I think N&W is off his rocker. Living under a rock - head in the sand. And I really really want to like him, especially with him being a local guy.

I like him.


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[eduggs]

N&W brings up COVID, a good example topic.

Trump supporters fundamentally misunderstand the potential threat of a global pandemic. Eventually (probably within the next 500 years) there will be a global pandemic (possibly respiratory virus) that will devastate global civilization and kill 10-50% of the population. This is something that scientists have been studying and planning for.

COVID was that kind of threat. A contagious respiratory virus can quickly overwhelm hospitals. Then you have people dying in the waiting rooms, in the hallways, then in the parking lots. And the health care system can no longer provide care to anybody. No rescue for accident victims, heart attacks, no care for pregnancies or any other emergencies, no painkillers, no medicines. Grocery stores shut down, transportation networks, police, utility stations... everything collapses. And quickly. COVID progressed pretty far down this path in parts of Italy and China (early 2020). It was a pretty close call in many other places, including NYC.

How do we humbly educate people about the very real risks of a global pandemic... people who have been encouraged to mistrust scientists, who don't understand complexity or nuance, who are hyper focused on their own little bubbles? How do we explain to them that minor inconveniences like masks, vaccines, and even school closures are essential tools to defend against civilization collapse in the face of a global pandemic? I thought we did a great job explaining and encouraging and teaching. End result of that effort, they think Fauci is some kind of monster. Sigh.

Good thing we had Trump insisting for all of February 2020 that COVID would be gone in a few weeks and then musing about drinking bleach.

 

[Dark Star]

Been following weather since 1969.  Can't remember Winter Storm Watches for sleet?  I do not agree that a WSW should be issued for 2"inches of snow and whatever amount of sleet to follow.  I think it is especially disingenuous to the public at large.  

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Yes we've swung from republican presidents to democratic and back again. But all of them before Trump genuinely tried to be President of the people. They had our interests in mind even if their policies were sometimes misguided. They respected our history and our institutions. How someone cannot see that Trump is a career con man who cares only about himself completely baffles me.

Both parties have had an unforgivable role in getting to this.  Apparently, fessing up and making things right is not in any contemporary election playbook.

 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

I mean, we’re glossing over the recent issue of the pain of school closures, not being able to question Covid’s origins, and lying about Biden’s mental deterioration after many of us have had elderly loved ones that we’ve seen decline with age.

If people were so upset about Biden and school closures, why didn't they just vote for Nikki Haley?

I can surely see how those concerns are right up there with health care, child care, elderly care, college education costs etc. Great people.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, eduggs said:

N&W brings up COVID, a good example topic.

Trump supporters fundamentally misunderstand the potential threat of a global pandemic. Eventually (probably within the next 500 years) there will be a global pandemic (possibly respiratory virus) that will devastate global civilization and kill 10-50% of the population. This is something that scientists have been studying and planning for.

COVID was that kind of threat. A contagious respiratory virus can quickly overwhelm hospitals. Then you have people dying in the waiting rooms, in the hallways, then in the parking lots. And the health care system can no longer provide care to anybody. No rescue for accident victims, heart attacks, no care for pregnancies or any other emergencies, no painkillers, no medicines. Grocery stores shut down, transportation networks, police, utility stations... everything collapses. And quickly. COVID progressed pretty far down this path in parts of Italy and China (early 2020). It was a pretty close call in many other places, including NYC.

How do we humbly educate people about the very real risks of a global pandemic... people who have been encouraged to mistrust scientists, who don't understand complexity or nuance, who are hyper focused on their own little bubbles? How do we explain to them that minor inconveniences like masks, vaccines, and even school closures are essential tools to defend against civilization collapse in the face of a global pandemic? I thought we did a great job explaining and encouraging and teaching. End result of that effort, they think Fauci is some kind of monster. Sigh.

Good thing we had Trump insisting for all of February 2020 that COVID would be gone in a few weeks and then musing about drinking bleach.

 

I think 500 years is being overly optimistic, probably more like 20 years-- we've had a few close calls before Covid and since 2000.  Human beings are advancing into tropical forests where they don't belong and we also have the disgusting impacts of wet markets.  According to many biologists, the pace of pandemics will only increase.

edit-- I see you wrote your estimate is based on killing off 10% of the population-- for that I'd say somewhere between 100-200 years.

 

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Been following weather since 1969.  Can't remember Winter Storm Watches for sleet?  I do not agree that a WSW should be issued for 2"inches of snow and whatever amount of sleet to follow.  I think it is especially disingenuous to the public at large.  

Agreed. OKX issued for 3-5" of snow plus a glaze of ice. That's borderline for this area, but not egregious IMO. That office has been cautious this week.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Been following weather since 1969.  Can't remember Winter Storm Watches for sleet?  I do not agree that a WSW should be issued for 2"inches of snow and whatever amount of sleet to follow.  I think it is especially disingenuous to the public at large.  

I do not remember did we have a WSW for St Patrick's Day 2007 when we received 5-6 inches of sleet?

 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think 500 years is being overly optimistic, probably more like 20 years-- we've had a few close calls before Covid and since 2000.  Human beings are advancing into tropical forests where they don't belong and we also have the disgusting impacts of wet markets.  According to many biologists, the pace of pandemics will only increase.

Of course it could be sooner. Most experts believe it will be. I agree with your points. But I was trying not to be alarmist. The point is that it is a real and present threat. We had a plan for how to respond. Now we mostly don't.

[North and West]

Nonsense. Get the fck out with your both siderism. Examples and evidence or STFU.

By phrasing it like that, aren’t you providing credence to what I was saying? Personally, I don’t like Trump nor did I vote for him, but when questioning a few things about the other side’s mistakes, it gets turned up to 11 and you turn off persuadable people.

Getting yelled at is not a fun experience for people and drowns out the message.


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[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Of course it could be sooner. Most experts believe it will be. I agree with your points. But I was trying not to be alarmist. The point is that it is a real and present threat. We had a plan for how to respond. Now we mostly don't.

I accidentally skipped over the part where you said a pandemic that would kill off at least 10% of the population, for that I'd amend my estimate to 100-200 years.  But a pandemic that kills off at least 1% of the population could happen again within 20 years.

We would hope people and governments would have learned something from what just happened to be able to prevent this in the future (China has been shutting down wet markets), but we just don't know if it will be enough. We certainly need people to have more trust in public health institutions and agencies like the WHO.

Pandemics are yet another example why no person and no nation lives in isolation, we're all part of a global society and to function sustainably, humanity needs to start behaving like it.

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Oops, I didn't realize i had stumbled into OT.

Take a few slow deep breaths.

This shit is serious.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

By phrasing it like that, aren’t you providing credence to what I was saying? Personally, I don’t like Trump nor did I vote for him, but when questioning a few things about the other side’s mistakes, it gets turned up to 11 and you turn off persuadable people.

Getting yelled at is not a fun experience for people and drowns out the message.


.

You had a random list of vague topics. Each of which would require details, complexity, and nuance in the response. But we're happy to discuss any topic that you want. But be specific. No person or team is 100% perfect. But we have a very very clear distinction here. Both sides are not "equally bad." I can list dozens of obvious flaws on one side. Serious, meaningful, impactful stuff. And you counter with relatively trivial stuff. That's not balanced.

[eduggs]

Honestly, your great, great grandchildren will still feel the shame and embarrassment of your having supported DJ Trump. I bet even just conversations in this forum will survive as record and proof.

It's not about democrat vs republican, liberal vs conservative. It's not about policy. It's about basic human decency. It's about believing in building something for the collective good vs. destroying what we've built for the sake of an everyone-for-themselves world. People have to decide for themselves to leave the cult.

[Dark Star]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I do not remember did we have a WSW for St Patrick's Day 2007 when we received 5-6 inches of sleet?

 

It was a Winter Storm Warning, for 4-8" of snow, and the NWS never backed off, still believing it was going to be snow.  Started off as rain in the greater NYC metro area, turned to snow, then to sleet. My notes say it was a low pressure from the Gulf, moved to Hatteras, then just off the Li shore...

[NorthShoreWx]

17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This shit is serious.

It is, but the place for anger and disrespect is in OT.

 

[Dark Star]

25 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Agreed. OKX issued for 3-5" of snow plus a glaze of ice. That's borderline for this area, but not egregious IMO. That office has been cautious this week.

The NYC NWS discussion believes this will be mainly all snow, but hints at some other possibilities as well, depending upon the intensities  Based on tracking the discussion on this board, the models are suggesting much more in the way of sleet?