Winter Banter 24-25

[rclab]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There are certain hobbyists and even a few professional mets not just hyping, but actually guaranteeing historic cold and historic snows for the east coast in January, saying it’s definitely going to happen. “Buckle up!!” over and over again. It’s out of control right now. If it doesn’t work out for whatever reason, they are going to permanently damage their reputation and credibility for years to come. They will be regarded as The Boy Who Cried Wolf. People who follow wxtwitter don’t forget and they don’t forgive. If I was a pro met, it would not be a game I’d play with my reputation and credibility…..

 

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

JB (and others) showed them the way. It's like some people truly believe the adage that there's no such thing as bad publicity. Until the algorithms are smart enough they'll keep boosting this shit because it gets more hits and reactions and the BS will get deeper and deeper.

 

20 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

It's the hypocrisy of the social media weather fan pages that crack me up. They're all "don't post hour 300 maps bc so much can change" and then they post it and say *this is the image circulating around Facebook etc. I'm posting it to give you the truth about it." Yet they're posting it for clicks and are jealous of the pages that do it first. 

Good morning everyone.  Accuweather shows snow in the forecast from the 6th through the 9. They show a summary of projected daily  conditions. They are calling for a possible 10.3 inches snow total for the 4 day period. I check it daily to see the evolution and changes. It’s only from what I’ve learned ( at least to the degree that I can understand ) from the professionals and well versed board members that I am able to explain to my grandson the accuracy of long range forecasts. For that I thank you all. Stay well in 2025 and after. As always. …

 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

It's the hypocrisy of the social media weather fan pages that crack me up. They're all "don't post hour 300 maps bc so much can change" and then they post it and say *this is the image circulating around Facebook etc. I'm posting it to give you the truth about it." Yet they're posting it for clicks and are jealous of the pages that do it first. 

I think the ultimate responsibility is on the modeling centers like ECMWF and NCEP for making operational model runs available beyond 120 to 168 hrs. We were joking a few months ago how extending the ECMWF OP to 360 hrs would go over. Once a product is out in the public domain there is nothing to stop someone from posting the image. We know that ensembles are the way to go beyond 120hrs to 168hrs and so do organizations like the NWS. Yet the modeling centers continue to run these OP runs out to 360 hrs and 384 hrs. It would be great if the only guidance products made available beyond 168hrs were the ensembles. 

[uofmiami]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I think the ultimate responsibility is on the modeling centers like ECMWF and NCEP for making operational model runs available beyond 120 to 168 hrs. We were joking a few months ago how extending the ECMWF OP to 360 hrs would go over. Once a product is out in the public domain there is nothing to stop someone from posting the image. We know that ensembles are the way to go beyond 120hrs to 168hrs and so do organizations like the NWS. Yet the modeling centers continue to run these OP runs out to 360 hrs and 384 hrs. It would be great if the only guidance products made available beyond 168hrs were the ensembles. 

Unfortunately the cat is out of the bag, so to speak, they’ll never go back to ensembles only past 10 days.  Hopefully with AI the models will get better somewhat, but it won’t stop the images of a crazy operational solutions from being posted all over social media, it’s the norm nowadays. 

[forkyfork]

that's why i don't believe in free speech

[Big Jims Videos]

Then you read on to see the hyped forecast post is sponsored by Big Al's Travel Deals and Snow Blowers.

So not only are they playing off hype mongering, but they're also profiting off of telling others not to do this, then doing it. 

[Volcanic Winter]

On the volcanic front an unusual big volcanic system in Africa has been waking up for a couple months now, Fentale. 

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/fantale/news/261022/Fantale-volcano-Ethiopia-earthquakes-intensify-increased-risk-of-volcanic-eruption.html

It’s been throwing rather large mag 4-5 quakes essentially daily at a depth that suggests a magmatic signature, and this system is capable of both big rhyolite explosions and basaltic fissure eruptions. If the main edifice (which has a large caldera) is the source of a possible eruption, it could be a fairly substantial explosive event. 

Regardless, this is an unusual volcano and African continental volcanism leans big and powerful, so it’s definitely a system to keep an eye on. 

https://watchers.news/2024/12/30/strong-earthquakes-near-fentale-volcano-spark-eruption-concerns-ethiopia/

[rclab]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

that's why i don't believe in free speech

That would be sad for all of us since that belief would render you mute. Stay vocally free, as always …

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

With our snow drought if Baltimore and Philly do well and we don’t that’s just a kick in the ass 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Unfortunately the cat is out of the bag, so to speak, they’ll never go back to ensembles only past 10 days.  Hopefully with AI the models will get better somewhat, but it won’t stop the images of a crazy operational solutions from being posted all over social media, it’s the norm nowadays. 

The standalone AI models so far aren’t very good. We can remember the runs when they first launched a while back showing the hurricane going into New England. Then the system wound up curving well to the east. The one use of AI that may show some promise is using in a hybrid form where it corrects the NWP model biases.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

That would be sad for all of us since that belief would render you mute. Stay vocally free, as always …

 

speech restriction is my most humane option for dealing with stupid people 

[Dark Star]

31 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

speech restriction is my most humane option for dealing with stupid people 

 

[rclab]

30 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

speech restriction is my most humane option for dealing with stupid people 

I see your point so that means Iron Maiden hand and mouth muzzles are not an option. As always …..

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The standalone AI models so far aren’t very good. We can remember the runs when they first launched a while back showing the hurricane going into New England. Then the system wound up curving well to the east. The one use of AI that may show some promise is using in a hybrid form where it corrects the NWP model biases.

Supposedly Google has an AI model that gave a perfect forecast from 15 days out. Could just all be BS since they haven’t released more information about it. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Supposedly Google has an AI model that gave a perfect forecast from 15 days out. Could just all be BS since they haven’t released more information about it. 

When you read the study they recently published they only mention some improvement day 3-5 over the NWP models.

https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gencast-predicts-weather-and-the-risks-of-extreme-conditions-with-sota-accuracy/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9

The largest improvements of GenCast are often at shorter lead times up to around 3–5 days, 

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There are certain hobbyists and even a few professional mets not just hyping, but actually guaranteeing historic cold and historic snows for the east coast in January, saying it’s definitely going to happen. “Buckle up!!” over and over again. It’s out of control right now. If it doesn’t work out for whatever reason, they are going to permanently damage their reputation and credibility for years to come. They will be regarded as The Boy Who Cried Wolf. People who follow wxtwitter don’t forget and they don’t forgive. If I was a pro met, it would not be a game I’d play with my reputation and credibility…..

No, you know how it goes.... I'm pretty sure some/many people want the hype, it's more exciting to them than reality.  The busts will be forgotten about and they will be welcomed the next time they hype lol

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

speech restriction is my most humane option for dealing with stupid people 

it's definitely the most peaceful option

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Then you read on to see the hyped forecast post is sponsored by Big Al's Travel Deals and Snow Blowers.

So not only are they playing off hype mongering, but they're also profiting off of telling others not to do this, then doing it. 

I mean it's like this in every industry.

Take everything with a grain of salt.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think the ultimate responsibility is on the modeling centers like ECMWF and NCEP for making operational model runs available beyond 120 to 168 hrs. We were joking a few months ago how extending the ECMWF OP to 360 hrs would go over. Once a product is out in the public domain there is nothing to stop someone from posting the image. We know that ensembles are the way to go beyond 120hrs to 168hrs and so do organizations like the NWS. Yet the modeling centers continue to run these OP runs out to 360 hrs and 384 hrs. It would be great if the only guidance products made available beyond 168hrs were the ensembles. 

why don't they make this stuff available only to professional degreed mets, like every other profession does?

[North and West]

speech restriction is my most humane option for dealing with stupid people 

.

[IrishRob17]

17 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Please use the multi quote. Please.

please. Thank you.

Perhaps such people get five posted?

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Perhaps such people get five posted?

some of us cant multiquote because the browser we use doesn't store the quote of previous posts.

using DuckDuckGo here

[Rjay]

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Direct down the toilet

[North and West]

You did a nice job on your forecast.


.

[Volcanic Winter]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

I love YouTube so much, I grew up with it… it’s such a great format at times and really lets creators deep dive things. There’s so much good and intelligent content out there, it just gets buried by all the clickbait nonsense that makes you want to vomit… 

Seriously? THE WORST BLIZZARD I’VE EVER SEEN!! Day After Tomorrow Par Deux, Arctic Boogaloo! 3ft from Atlanta to Bangor!
 

  Can I start a petition to send @donsutherland1to this guy’s house? 
 

And it’s no better in the geology arena, there’s so many videos like, “Is Yellowstone REALLY about to go off and delete the United States of America? The Secrets Geologists Don’t Want You 2 Know!”

FFS

[North and West]

I love YouTube so much, I grew up with it… it’s such a great format at times and really lets creators deep dive things. There’s so much good and intelligent content out there, it just gets buried by all the clickbait nonsense that makes you want to vomit… 
Seriously? THE WORST BLIZZARD I’VE EVER SEEN!! Day After Tomorrow Par Deux, Arctic Boogaloo! 3ft from Atlanta to Bangor!
 
  Can I start a petition to send [mention=54]donsutherland1[/mention]to this guy’s house? 
 
And it’s no better in the geology arena, there’s so many videos like, “Is Yellowstone REALLY about to go off and delete the United States of America? The Secrets Geologists Don’t Want You 2 Know!”
FFS

I think this storm may have this one weird trick that real meteorologists HATE


.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I love YouTube so much, I grew up with it… it’s such a great format at times and really lets creators deep dive things. There’s so much good and intelligent content out there, it just gets buried by all the clickbait nonsense that makes you want to vomit… 

Seriously? THE WORST BLIZZARD I’VE EVER SEEN!! Day After Tomorrow Par Deux, Arctic Boogaloo! 3ft from Atlanta to Bangor!
 

  Can I start a petition to send @donsutherland1to this guy’s house? 
 

And it’s no better in the geology arena, there’s so many videos like, “Is Yellowstone REALLY about to go off and delete the United States of America? The Secrets Geologists Don’t Want You 2 Know!”

FFS

It's sad because all the lay people who have no idea the difference between this guy and a real forecaster will then blame all forecasters when they don't get 3 feet next week. But they'll also keep coming back for more videos promising them the worst winter weather in the history of mankind

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's sad because all the lay people who have no idea the difference between this guy and a real forecaster will then blame all forecasters when they don't get 3 feet next week. But they'll also keep coming back for more videos promising them the worst winter weather in the history of mankind

In addition people that know you follow the weather then ask "I see we're getting 3 feet of snow on Martin Luther King Day, what time do you think it will start?"

[North and West]

In addition people that know you follow the weather then ask "I see we're getting 3 feet of snow on Martin Luther King Day, what time do you think it will start?"

quick question: how much for philly


.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, RedSky said:

Direct down the toilet

what storm is this?