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Winter Banter 24-25


Rjay
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i'll spell it out for those in denial: human co2 emissions are taking your snow away and it's only going to get worse

All right, I’ll bite: is this a stream of consciousness or was there an earlier conversation? I don’t recall anyone saying anything about it. Seemed random.


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16 minutes ago, North and West said:


All right, I’ll bite: is this a stream of consciousness or was there an earlier conversation? I don’t recall anyone saying anything about it. Seemed random.


.

it's his reaction to all the manic posts about snowfall, model runs, opining about the long range, medium range, short range, etc.

 

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it's his reaction to all the manic posts about snowfall, model runs, opining about the long range, medium range, short range, etc.
 

Thanks. Seemed like when you join someone mid-thought.

A lot of the medium term and long range forecasts change often anyway, so there’s diminished value is them.


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4 hours ago, wdrag said:

I reference CP in most of my posts...  that's the heart of the city representing I think much of LI. If it goes good there, it usually, correct me if I'm wrong, it usually is pretty good for most of metro NY and northern LI.  

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not sure what the population breakdown is where most people live.  Central Park is more representative of western and central regions than it is farther east.  I wouldn't say it's representative of the north shore of Long Island though.  Looking closer at the map, the northeastern part of Long Island has a higher likelihood of 1 inch snowfall (around 80%).

 

He didn't say that CP is representative of the north shore. I think the sentence that you may have misunderstood is that if CP holds onto snow, the north shore usually holds on to snow.

It would be more difficult to apply that same generalization to the south shores of NYC and LI.

<note: quoted posts were from a non-banter thread>

 

 

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41 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

 

 

He didn't say that CP is representative of the north shore. I think the sentence that you may have misunderstood is that if CP holds onto snow, the north shore usually holds on to snow.

It would be more difficult to apply that same generalization to the south shores of NYC and LI.

<note: quoted posts were from a non-banter thread>

 

 

Probably, but I would add other parts of the city into the equation too, since New York City isn't a single point and covers 5 boroughs.  From living in Brooklyn and Nassau County and going to college in Queens, JFK is very representative of most of Brooklyn and Queens at least up to Jamaica.  There's a large number of people who live in this area.  Perhaps Central Park holds onto snow better, but I can certify that Manhattan as a whole most definitely does not-- I've witnessed many a 6 inch snowfall where Manhattan had barely any snow to be found.  Particularly late season snowfalls.  I've seen many snowfalls where the south shore held onto snowfall much better than urbanized Manhattan does. March 2001 (bust though it was) and April 1996 and April 2003 are cases in point. 

I've never been to Central Park (nor do I ever have a desire to go there-- I consider parks to be artificial environments like zoos and if I want to see nature I go to the Poconos or elsewhere where there are real woods.)

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

 

 

He didn't say that CP is representative of the north shore. I think the sentence that you may have misunderstood is that if CP holds onto snow, the north shore usually holds on to snow.

It would be more difficult to apply that same generalization to the south shores of NYC and LI.

<note: quoted posts were from a non-banter thread>

 

 

Thanks all for your feedback...  When I look at NY metro,  I try not to get lost in the weeds... if CP is cold enough to snow, usually I think LI is, especially N shore with the various considerations of SST, depth of cold air hanging on at any point. 

I'm moving on, trying to be reliably close to what will occur. You're welcome to straighten me out-any time. 

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21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

they'll bring up Florida and the Gulf Coast.

but but..... look what just happened in the Deep South this season!!

I think bringing up the deep South is valid in a sense that it keeps everything in perspective. 

Warming is a slow process, it does not mean uh-oh our Winters are over and we will never have a 95/96 again. Some posts make readers believe that it's all over it's too warm. I get it some want to raise an alarm to wake up some people however a true poster will explain it in more detail.

Therefore even though it's warmer now we can still get snow even historic snow and warm places like the Gulf. The snowfall average will inevitably start to drop however you're probably looking at 2 to 4 inches off the average per decade rather than cut in half. We are not even definitively sure if this has started already as we are not far off from the 1970 through 1999 average. If we get a big snow storm this week we're probably going to be close to in line.

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47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think bringing up the deep South is valid in a sense that it keeps everything in perspective. 

Warming is a slow process, it does not mean uh-oh our Winters are over and we will never have a 95/96 again. Some posts make readers believe that it's all over it's too warm. I get it some want to raise an alarm to wake up some people however a true poster will explain it in more detail.

Therefore even though it's warmer now we can still get snow even historic snow and warm places like the Gulf. The snowfall average will inevitably start to drop however you're probably looking at 2 to 4 inches off the average per decade rather than cut in half. We are not even definitively sure if this has started already as we are not far off from the 1970 through 1999 average. If we get a big snow storm this week we're probably going to be close to in line.

I think people are more unsettled about this season in particular (as I wrote in the other post) because it was cold all three winter months and it still didn't snow.

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On 2/13/2025 at 12:04 PM, LibertyBell said:

they'll bring up Florida and the Gulf Coast.

but but..... look what just happened in the Deep South this season!!

They'll also ignore that everyone outside the US has been on fire this winter. It was enough to set more monthly global temperature records. 

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i'm so excited 4 next weeks event. Tomorrow should be a little cool too couple of inches followed by rain which means i don't even have to shovel the snow lol

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