Winter Banter 24-25

[Brasiluvsnow]

33 minutes ago, North and West said:

This book was more than just that. A lot of basic stories of a lot of people who couldn’t admit that someone they don’t agree with (any politician) could be right about something and that themselves could be wrong; that closing beaches didn’t actually help (sunshine, vitamin d); school closings are hindering the poorest kids for many years on out and we’ll continue to feel the impact; the people making the vaccine didn’t have malicious intent; hospitals weren’t going to accept people if the beds didn’t make money.

Just a cluster overall.


.

How much money did the hospitals make IF they labeled your admission as covid ? How much money was made when they put  patients onto a ventilator ? They literally made a killing and there were incentive$ from insurance companie$ to label admissions covid ! They demonized hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin and they told us that those drugs would harm or worse yet kill you when in reality they would have both saved countless lives. You have a better chance of having a bad reaction to taking a Tylenol than you do from taking Ivermectin as Ivermectin has been around for decades and there are countless studies on it being successful. Ivermectin won the Nobel prize in I believe 2015 for how it worked against many illnesses yet early on during covid I had a doctor fill a prescription out for Ivermectin and when I went to cvs to get it filled they denied me the drug = they would not fill the script even though they had the drug in stock ( how many times in your life has that happened ) they did not offer a generic they denied myself and others the drug ---> I wound up   getting it elsewhere but many drug store outlets would NOT fill an ivermectin script. It is very sad and scary what took place and even though Liberty said " he'd like to think that people were not prepared " = I guess that we all would like to say that but sadly that is not what took place , Enjoy your book N n W and now back to winter

[Rjay]

Holy hell

[SnowGoose69]

6 hours ago, North and West said:

This book was more than just that. A lot of basic stories of a lot of people who couldn’t admit that someone they don’t agree with (any politician) could be right about something and that themselves could be wrong; that closing beaches didn’t actually help (sunshine, vitamin d); school closings are hindering the poorest kids for many years on out and we’ll continue to feel the impact; the people making the vaccine didn’t have malicious intent; hospitals weren’t going to accept people if the beds didn’t make money.

Just a cluster overall.


.

The bad part is when bird flu eventually jumps to go human to human which is probably within the next 10 years or so we'll probably have a ton of people who just ignore it.  The good news is I saw a fairly good program on TV a few weeks back that projects it likely won't be as deadly as COVID was, likely somewhere midway between the severity of the 2009 and 1919 outbreaks but its believed that since influenza causes bacterial vs viral pneumonia it'll be easier to control the secondary impacts.  COVID causing viral pneumonia is really what was most problematic.

[coastalplainsnowman]

we're doing it wrong

[Volcanic Winter]

Starting to feel better, but holy hell - not fun. I have a coxsackie viral infection, like Hand Foot and Mouth disease most common in young children. 

That first night I went from completely fine to pushing a 104 fever in something like six hours, but the fever itself broke by the 36 hour mark. I’m used to COVID lately where I’ve had low to moderate grade fevers for as long as ten days, so that was maybe the only good aspect of this. 

Then a terrible sore throat kicked in, total razor blades, tough to swallow and combined with near zero appetite. Just hellacious thirst for water (and tons of electrolyte powder , Ultima - really good stuff and a lifesaver when your body is depleted ). 

This also lessened in about a day, and I thought I was somehow coming out the other side already. My only nagging thought was that the initial fever was stupid high, which logically suggests your body was fighting something fairly significant. Sure enough within a few hours I began breaking out with super painful blisters all over my hands and feet that initially hurt so much it was tough to stand or do anything. Eventually it kinda morphed into a painful burning itching feeling.

Highly unpleasant. Do not recommend. Stay safe out there guys. It’s really wild how much stuff is circulating this year, and unfortunately there’s an argument to be made that having COVID in December at the back end of my trip (unfortunately) left my immune system weakened enough to pick this odd virus up. It’s not super typical in adults although I’ve read a lot the past two days that the idea adults don’t really or rarely catch this is false.

That said, I need a volcano or snowstorm to track - bad . Posting at 3:30am because it’s still extremely difficult to sleep due to the discomfort of this rash.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The bad part is when bird flu eventually jumps to go human to human which is probably within the next 10 years or so we'll probably have a ton of people who just ignore it.  The good news is I saw a fairly good program on TV a few weeks back that projects it likely won't be as deadly as COVID was, likely somewhere midway between the severity of the 2009 and 1919 outbreaks but its believed that since influenza causes bacterial vs viral pneumonia it'll be easier to control the secondary impacts.  COVID causing viral pneumonia is really what was most problematic.

factory farming is unhealthy unsanitary and immoral and needs to come to an end.

so glad I stopped all that nonsense years ago.

 

100,000 ducks had to be killed at a duck farm out on Aquebogue, it's absolutely tragic.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Starting to feel better, but holy hell - not fun. I have a coxsackie viral infection, like Hand Foot and Mouth disease most common in young children. 

That first night I went from completely fine to pushing a 104 fever in something like six hours, but the fever itself broke by the 36 hour mark. I’m used to COVID lately where I’ve had low to moderate grade fevers for as long as ten days, so that was maybe the only good aspect of this. 

Then a terrible sore throat kicked in, total razor blades, tough to swallow and combined with near zero appetite. Just hellacious thirst for water (and tons of electrolyte powder , Ultima - really good stuff and a lifesaver when your body is depleted ). 

This also lessened in about a day, and I thought I was somehow coming out the other side already. My only nagging thought was that the initial fever was stupid high, which logically suggests your body was fighting something fairly significant. Sure enough within a few hours I began breaking out with super painful blisters all over my hands and feet that initially hurt so much it was tough to stand or do anything. Eventually it kinda morphed into a painful burning itching feeling.

Highly unpleasant. Do not recommend. Stay safe out there guys. It’s really wild how much stuff is circulating this year, and unfortunately there’s an argument to be made that having COVID in December at the back end of my trip (unfortunately) left my immune system weakened enough to pick this odd virus up. It’s not super typical in adults although I’ve read a lot the past two days that the idea adults don’t really or rarely catch this is false.

That said, I need a volcano or snowstorm to track - bad . Posting at 3:30am because it’s still extremely difficult to sleep due to the discomfort of this rash.

 

it's bad out there, I intend to be outside as little as possible until the weather warms up.

what you have sounds so awful, with all the blisters you mentioned I thought at first you had chicken pox.....

[North and West]

we're doing it wrong

oh no



.

[Nibor]

12 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Starting to feel better, but holy hell - not fun. I have a coxsackie viral infection, like Hand Foot and Mouth disease most common in young children. 

That first night I went from completely fine to pushing a 104 fever in something like six hours, but the fever itself broke by the 36 hour mark. I’m used to COVID lately where I’ve had low to moderate grade fevers for as long as ten days, so that was maybe the only good aspect of this. 

Then a terrible sore throat kicked in, total razor blades, tough to swallow and combined with near zero appetite. Just hellacious thirst for water (and tons of electrolyte powder , Ultima - really good stuff and a lifesaver when your body is depleted ). 

This also lessened in about a day, and I thought I was somehow coming out the other side already. My only nagging thought was that the initial fever was stupid high, which logically suggests your body was fighting something fairly significant. Sure enough within a few hours I began breaking out with super painful blisters all over my hands and feet that initially hurt so much it was tough to stand or do anything. Eventually it kinda morphed into a painful burning itching feeling.

Highly unpleasant. Do not recommend. Stay safe out there guys. It’s really wild how much stuff is circulating this year, and unfortunately there’s an argument to be made that having COVID in December at the back end of my trip (unfortunately) left my immune system weakened enough to pick this odd virus up. It’s not super typical in adults although I’ve read a lot the past two days that the idea adults don’t really or rarely catch this is false.

That said, I need a volcano or snowstorm to track - bad . Posting at 3:30am because it’s still extremely difficult to sleep due to the discomfort of this rash.

 

Oof. Keep an eye on your finger and toe nails in a few weeks…

[Volcanic Winter]

3 hours ago, Nibor said:

Oof. Keep an eye on your finger and toe nails in a few weeks…

[Nibor]

16 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah… when I got coxsackie about a decade ago I lost every fingernail and toenail a few weeks later. It doesn’t happen for everyone but it’s pretty common. 

[Volcanic Winter]

49 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Yeah… when I got coxsackie about a decade ago I lost every fingernail and toenail a few weeks later. It doesn’t happen for everyone but it’s pretty common. 

Ugh - I’m sorry that’s absolutely horrid. I did read that can happen, no way of knowing what will happen in my case so I’ll just have to wait and see. 

Just underscores what an unpleasant virus this is.

[North and West]

Yeah… when I got coxsackie about a decade ago I lost every fingernail and toenail a few weeks later. It doesn’t happen for everyone but it’s pretty common. 

.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Ugh - I’m sorry that’s absolutely horrid. I did read that can happen, no way of knowing what will happen in my case so I’ll just have to wait and see. 

Just underscores what an unpleasant virus this is.

I wish we could exterminate these monsters

 

[Nibor]

7 hours ago, North and West said:

.

Your entire body swells including your hands and feet. Consequently the new keratin that grows during the days you’re swollen slips under your old nail and begins growing an entirely new nail under the old one. Eventually the old nail pops off but it’s a weird flip of a coin how far along the new nail is when it happens. I had a few nails that were a weird mixture of old and new. A whole different experience of hell after the initial sickness. 

[Dark Star]

Remnants of the line directly over Linden NJ, but I all observe is a broken cloud deck...

[donsutherland1]

On 12/28/2024 at 6:17 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Increasingly, it appears that credible meteorological organizations and meteorologists are being drowned out by Social Media hype by amateurs and some of their own peers. The amateurs may not necessarily know better, but one would expect that the professionals would. But exaggerated posts (snowstorms, SSWs, and severe cold) in recent years hints otherwise.

Last night, the 12/28 0z ECMWF operational model forecast a historic-type Arctic blast. Several professional accounts were among Social Media accounts trumpeting the model verbatim. At least one even specifically referred to "historic cold."

A turn toward colder weather is likely in early January and the second week of January could be much colder than normal. But there is a large distinction between much colder than normal, a significant Arctic blast, and a historic-type Arctic blast.

If one examines the bigger picture one finds:

1. Historic-type Arctic blasts have become less common as the Arctic region has warmed and the Northern Hemisphere's deep cold pool has shrunk. The last true historic large-scale Arctic blast occurred in February 11-20, 2021.

2. The climate has warmed, particularly since 2000.

The ongoing warming is a big reason why the Contiguous U.S. has not seen a winter where excessively cold minimum temperatures have exceeded areal coverage of excessively warm minimum temperatures (winter average) since 2013-2014:

Here are the Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies 2 weeks and 1 week before the start of the February 2021 historic Arctic outbreak:

2 weeks:

1 week:

3 days:

And here's the latest map (December 26, 2024):

Key Difference: There was much more very cold air, both on our side of the Northern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere overall prior to the February 2021 Arctic outbreak.

It is unclear whether those accounts have much understanding of how to use ensembles, even as they almost certainly have awareness of ensembles. IMO, those accounts would do well to visit and study WPC's outstanding ensemble training page:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

The WPC guide notes of operational model runs: "...in a chaotic system like an atmospheric model, non linear errors (although inconsequential in short lead times) will grow - sometimes rapidly.  Eventually these growing errors cause the model forecast ouput to eventually become useless." That lesson is ignored or not well-understood by the accounts hyping historic cold outbreaks some 10 days or more in the future.

If one looks at the latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, one sees significant, but not historic cold is currently forecast:

The very cold ECMWF weekly outlook for January 6-13:

That's very cold. But it doesn't match the coldest shots since 2000 in Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

All said, the recent ECMWF weeklies, including today's run, is plenty cold to communicate the message that it will likely turn significantly colder in the long-range with the potential of a severe shot of cold. Exaggeration and hype are not needed. There is no need to invoke historic Arctic outbreaks that still have very little support (occasional runs on a single model, no run-to-run continuity, no widespread ensemble or other model support), especially at timeframes when operational model skill scores are low.

Speaking of very little support, the 12/28 12z ECMWF still contains an Arctic outbreak during the second week of January, but it is nowhere near as frigid as the 12/28 0z run featured and pushed on Social Media by multiple accounts.

And for the Social Media accounts that hyped the 0z run, no mention whatsoever about the 12z run?

What is likely?

January 10-20, will likely see the temperature fall well into the teens and perhaps even single digits in New York City and Philadelphia. Boston will likely see single digits with perhaps a chance at a subzero low. Detroit , Chicago, and Indianapolis could see one or more subzero lows. None of those cities will likely see historic-type cold e.g., widespread subzero lows from Washington, DC to Boston and double-digit subzero lows in Chicago, Indianapolis, and Detroit. Some of those cities might see their coldest readings of the 2020s, but most very likely won't exceed their coldest readings since 2000. Most or all of those cities likely won't experience their coldest 7-day period since 2000. Historic-type low temperatures and 7-day mean temperatures are unlikely.

And if the cold fails to measure up to the coldest Arctic outbreaks since 2000, one can expect the Social Media accounts to still claim that they were "correct" in their assessment. However, in fact, their assessment would be wrong, as the cold wasn't even three-decade cold, much less historic-type cold. The general public will then come away with yet another example that skews their perceptions of the meteorology profession, lumping in outstanding public and private sector meteorologists with those who seek Social Media clicks and engagement.

 

Verification:

Here's what actually happened.

None of the cities had their coldest temperature or coldest 7-day period since 2000. Most of the cities didn't even have their coldest low temperature or coldest 7-day period of the 2020s. Historic cold did not materialize in the area outlined.

[Dark Star]

Edmonton is 22 degrees F and Gillam is -22 F.  Not sure how accurate these readings are.  Gillam is a bit southwest of the lower corner of the Hudson Bay.  Based on this, the core of the colder air in Canada appears to be in the East?  

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Edmonton is 22 degrees F and Gillam is -22 F.  Not sure how accurate these readings are.  Gillam is a bit southwest of the lower corner of the Hudson Bay.  Based on this, the core of the colder air in Canada appears to be in the East?  

Parts of the Northwest Territories and northern Saskatchewan are near or below -40.

[Dark Star]

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Parts of the Northwest Territories and northern Saskatchewan are near or below -40.

Indeed farther north.  Not sure how people survive in those regions.  I guess there is something to be said about solitude...

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Parts of the Northwest Territories and northern Saskatchewan are near or below -40.

-40 is a truly magical temperature, at which C=F

Most analog thermometers I've seen do not go below -40.

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Indeed farther north.  Not sure how people survive in those regions.  I guess there is something to be said about solitude...

Great Northern Lights displays!

Edmonton is a large city with a huge mall. I know a few people who live there.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 1/29/2025 at 6:20 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Verification:

Here's what actually happened.

None of the cities had their coldest temperature or coldest 7-day period since 2000. Most of the cities didn't even have their coldest low temperature or coldest 7-day period of the 2020s. Historic cold did not materialize in the area outlined.

Don, one thing I have noticed is people hype up run-of-the-mill cold and then there is radio silence when actual historic warmth occurs. Current temperature at La Crosse, Wisconsin is 58F, setting a new January all-time record. The existing record of 57F was set on January 1, 1897; January 3, 1874; and January 25, 1981. That's right - a 151-year-old record. To put that into perspective, the American Revolution was less than 100 years old at the time, and the Civil War had ended about a decade prior. As Elon Musk might be inclined to say, let that sink in.

Madison, Wisconsin is up to 57F, one shy of the all-time January monthly record of 58F set on January 6, 1880. Only one other January date has been so warm - January 3, 1874, when it also reached 57F. Elsewhere across the region, numerous daily records falling at long POR sites all across the Upper Midwest. Green Bay is also just a couple of degrees shy of its monthly record.

[North and West]

Don, one thing I have noticed is people hype up run-of-the-mill cold and then there is radio silence when actual historic warmth occurs. Current temperature at La Crosse, Wisconsin is 58F, setting a new January all-time record. The existing record of 57F was set on January 1, 1897; January 3, 1874; and January 25, 1981. That's right - a 151-year-old record. To put that into perspective, the American Revolution was less than 100 years old at the time, and the Civil War had ended about a decade prior. As Elon Musk might be inclined to say, let that sink in.
Madison, Wisconsin is up to 57F, one shy of the all-time January monthly record of 58F set on January 6, 1880. Only one other January date has been so warm - January 3, 1874, when it also reached 57F. Elsewhere across the region, numerous daily records falling at long POR sites all across the Upper Midwest. Green Bay is also just a couple of degrees shy of its monthly record.

.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Don, one thing I have noticed is people hype up run-of-the-mill cold and then there is radio silence when actual historic warmth occurs. Current temperature at La Crosse, Wisconsin is 58F, setting a new January all-time record. The existing record of 57F was set on January 1, 1897; January 3, 1874; and January 25, 1981. That's right - a 151-year-old record. To put that into perspective, the American Revolution was less than 100 years old at the time, and the Civil War had ended about a decade prior. As Elon Musk might be inclined to say, let that sink in.

Madison, Wisconsin is up to 57F, one shy of the all-time January monthly record of 58F set on January 6, 1880. Only one other January date has been so warm - January 3, 1874, when it also reached 57F. Elsewhere across the region, numerous daily records falling at long POR sites all across the Upper Midwest. Green Bay is also just a couple of degrees shy of its monthly record.

On a different note, the last time a plane crashed into the Potomac, January 13, 1982 during  a raging snowstorm.  74 perished =\

 

1981-82 had two periods of historic winter weather, one in January with a 3 day snowstorm and below zero cold right down to the coast and the second one came in April with a historic blizzard and a week of arctic cold and another snow event at the tail end of that.

 

[STORMANLI]

PETA Proposes Groundhog Day ‘Weather Reveal’ Cake To Retire Punxsutawney Phil, Club Responds | Monroe Daily Voice
https://dailyvoice.com/pa/gettysburg/peta-proposes-groundhog-day-weather-reveal-cake-to-retire-punxsutawney-phil-club-responds/

[STORMANLI]

43 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

PETA Proposes Groundhog Day ‘Weather Reveal’ Cake To Retire Punxsutawney Phil, Club Responds | Monroe Daily Voice
https://dailyvoice.com/pa/gettysburg/peta-proposes-groundhog-day-weather-reveal-cake-to-retire-punxsutawney-phil-club-responds/

Apologies for replying to my own post. So if the shadow of the cake appears on my plate , does that mean 6 more weeks of winter?  And can I influence the outcome by eating all of the cake and eliminating the shadow. Or does it just mean I still have some left to eat? As previously stated I don't get out much.

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

Apologies for replying to my own post. So if the shadow of the cake appears on my plate , does that mean 6 more weeks of winter?  And can I influence the outcome by eating all of the cake and eliminating the shadow. Or does it just mean I still have some left to eat? As previously stated I don't get out much.

They influence the outcome already by having all those artificial lights on around the rodent.

 

[Roger Smith]

A reminder to enter Feb forecast contest in 2025 contest thread. 

[Sampson]

Storms on parade on the GFS