Winter Banter 24-25

[donsutherland1]

On 1/18/2025 at 1:09 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Another Social Media post to be added to the verification pile (BAMWX's call for historic cold will be verified tomorrow):

The above post was made yesterday after the 1/18 0z HRRR came out and seemingly supported the 1/17 18z RGEM, which is posted below:

Before one prematurely claims verification, possibly based on confirmation bias, one should examine the pattern to see if the particular guidance makes sense. The pattern has some similarities with that of the January 22, 1987 snowstorm, that brought 8.1" to New York City and 8.8" to Philadelphia. This time around, the ridging off the East Coast will be less impressive than it was in 1987 and the storm won't be as moisture-laden. Thus, snowfall amounts will be lower than they were in 1987. At the same time, a mostly rain scenario in New York City is unlikely.

My thinking last evening, which incorporated my assessment of the pattern that I posted on this morning and considered all of the guidance:

Snow will likely accompany the arrival of the Arctic air to the region. A developing storm will likely bring a general 3"-6" snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with a stripe of 4"-8" amounts to the north and west of this region. 1"-3" amounts are likely east of Islip.

The RGEM is a very good mesoscale model, but it appeared to be an outlier from a general consensus that existed among the guidance. Since then, it has corrected quite aggressively in its 1/18 6z and 12z runs moving into decent agreement with the model consensus.

 

The January 19, 2025 snowstorm underperformed in the I-95 Corridor. However, snowfall amounts were still much higher than those suggested by the 1/17 18z RGEM for which "victory" had prematurely been declared.

RGEM Amounts vs. Actual Amounts:

Bridgeport: 0.7" (Actual: 2.3")
Islip: 0.2" (Actual: 2.3")
New York City: 0.5" (Actual: Central Park: 1.6"; JFK Airport: 2.2"; LaGuardia Airport: 3.6")
Newark: 0.6" (Actual: 2.4")
Philadelphia: 0.5" (Actual: 2.0")

[WestBabylonWeather]

This is cruel, universe

“the ocean really screws us on Long Island”

 

 

[MJO812]

This is a cruel joke

[NorthShoreWx]

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=HGX&wwa=blizzard warning

 

Pretty cool!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA

415 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

.A coastal low moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico is producing periods of visibility reducing heavy snow and wind gusts in excess of 35 MPH in bands moving onshore. These bands will continue to move in and out of the warned area through the morning creating hazardous conditions to anyone exposed outdoors for extended periods of time.

LAZ044-073-074-141>143-152-241>243-252-TXZ515-516-615-616-211800- /O.UPG.KLCH.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250122T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KLCH.BZ.W.0002.250121T1015Z-250121T1800Z/

Lafayette-West Cameron-East Cameron-Northern Calcasieu-Northern Jefferson Davis-Northern Acadia-Upper Vermilion-Southern Calcasieu-Southern Jefferson Davis-Southern Acadia-Lower Vermilion-Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson- Southern Orange-

Including the cities of Welsh, Jennings, Carlyss, Morse, Klondike, De Quincy, Iota, Lafayette, Fenton, Port Arthur, Sea Rim State Park, Sulphur, Church Point, Hackberry, Cameron, Nederland, Abbeville, Grand Lake, Beaumont, Rutherford Beach, Forked Island, Westlake, Johnson Bayou, Sabine Pass, Orange, Hathaway, Vidor, Topsy, Intracoastal City, Elton, Maurice, Gueydan, Bell City, Meaux, Kaplan, Moss Bluff, Lake Arthur, Hayes, Vinton, Rayne, Iowa, Creole, Mauriceville, China, Grand Chenier, Bridge City, Branch, Crowley, and Lake Charles

415 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order.

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay in your vehicle.

[North and West]

This is a cruel joke

.

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=HGX&wwa=blizzard warning

 

Pretty cool!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA

415 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

.A coastal low moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico is producing periods of visibility reducing heavy snow and wind gusts in excess of 35 MPH in bands moving onshore. These bands will continue to move in and out of the warned area through the morning creating hazardous conditions to anyone exposed outdoors for extended periods of time.

LAZ044-073-074-141>143-152-241>243-252-TXZ515-516-615-616-211800- /O.UPG.KLCH.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-250122T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KLCH.BZ.W.0002.250121T1015Z-250121T1800Z/

Lafayette-West Cameron-East Cameron-Northern Calcasieu-Northern Jefferson Davis-Northern Acadia-Upper Vermilion-Southern Calcasieu-Southern Jefferson Davis-Southern Acadia-Lower Vermilion-Upper Jefferson-Northern Orange-Lower Jefferson- Southern Orange-

Including the cities of Welsh, Jennings, Carlyss, Morse, Klondike, De Quincy, Iota, Lafayette, Fenton, Port Arthur, Sea Rim State Park, Sulphur, Church Point, Hackberry, Cameron, Nederland, Abbeville, Grand Lake, Beaumont, Rutherford Beach, Forked Island, Westlake, Johnson Bayou, Sabine Pass, Orange, Hathaway, Vidor, Topsy, Intracoastal City, Elton, Maurice, Gueydan, Bell City, Meaux, Kaplan, Moss Bluff, Lake Arthur, Hayes, Vinton, Rayne, Iowa, Creole, Mauriceville, China, Grand Chenier, Bridge City, Branch, Crowley, and Lake Charles

415 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...Until noon CST today.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order.

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay in your vehicle.

It's probably more rare than the Blizzard Warning Hawaii had a few years ago in March!

 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It's probably more rare than the Blizzard Warning Hawaii had a few years ago in March!

 

Given that it's the first time, it's no better than a tie.

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's probably more rare than the Blizzard Warning Hawaii had a few years ago in March!

 

The mountain tops. It’s common isn’t it. Haleakala and such 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The mountain tops. It’s common isn’t it. Haleakala and such 

Yep, people go skiing there and then go surfing down at the sea in the same day lol.

[Stormlover74]

Local TV meteorologists deliver tearful farewell as stations replace staff with The Weather Channel feed

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/21/media/local-meteorologists-allen-media-weather-channel/index.html

 

[donsutherland1]

A snowstorm for the ages is blanketing the U.S. Gulf Coast. Some select observations:

Baton Rouge:

New Orleans:

Webcam image from New Orleans:

 

Gulfport:

Mobile:

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A snowstorm for the ages is blanketing the U.S. Gulf Coast. Some select observations:

Baton Rouge:

New Orleans:

Webcam image from New Orleans:

 

Gulfport:

Mobile:

TWC listed a report of 4 inches from Houston. Not sure if it's the official measurement for the City.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

TWC listed a report of 4 inches from Houston. Not sure if it's the official measurement for the City.

It’s from Houston (3 SE). That’s not the official measurement.

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Local TV meteorologists deliver tearful farewell as stations replace staff with The Weather Channel feed

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/21/media/local-meteorologists-allen-media-weather-channel/index.html

 

I work in television and live streaming. The cuts and slow degradation of quality has been exponential in our industry over the past 15 years. It’s bad on so many levels. 

[RockawayRowdies]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, people go skiing there and then go surfing down at the sea in the same day lol.

Reminds me of Vegas. Can go skiing up Mt Charleston in morning, Death Valley in afternoon and be back on the strip by dinner. All in same day.

[WestBabylonWeather]

https://hiltonpensacolabeach.com/beach-cam/

[Volcanic Winter]

4 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The mountain tops. It’s common isn’t it. Haleakala and such 

Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa often are frosted on top, and probably had some form of glacier during the last glacial maxima (crazy at Hawaii’s latitude). It’s a bit rarer at Haleakala and Hualalai. 

[NorthShoreWx]

Some light snow has made it all the way to KATL, but there's hundreds of miles of virga northeast from there into SE VA.  Not sure there will anything more than virga approaching E-LI this evening, although a surprise would be nice.

There is a nice slate gray "it's gonna snow" look to the sky here.  Temp is 17.8°

Enjoy the illusion!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, RockawayRowdies said:

Reminds me of Vegas. Can go skiing up Mt Charleston in morning, Death Valley in afternoon and be back on the strip by dinner. All in same day.

it sounds like the perfect climate lol

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

Some light snow has made it all the way to KATL, but there's hundreds of miles of virga northeast from there into SE VA.  Not sure there will anything more than virga approaching E-LI this evening, although a surprise would be nice.

There is a nice slate gray "it's gonna snow" look to the sky here.  Temp is 17.8°

Enjoy the illusion!

Yes, it reminds me of February 1989.....

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

I work in television and live streaming. The cuts and slow degradation of quality has been exponential in our industry over the past 15 years. It’s bad on so many levels. 

whats causing the degradation?

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing the degradation?

Investigative journalism is pretty much gone. The rise of slop media, think reality shows on the weather channel. Automation in the control room and on set, robotic cameras, people filling 2 jobs instead of 1 like being an A2 as well as stage manager. Completely gutting editorial teams. It’s across the board at tons of places but I’m sure it’s not too different in other sectors with massive corporations at the helm. 
 

What’s causing it? Generating more profit than last year at any expense. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Investigative journalism is pretty much gone. The rise of slop media, think reality shows on the weather channel. Automation in the control room and on set, robotic cameras, people filling 2 jobs instead of 1 like being an A2 as well as stage manager. Completely gutting editorial teams. It’s across the board at tons of places but I’m sure it’s not too different in other sectors with massive corporations at the helm. 
 

What’s causing it? Generating more profit than last year at any expense. 

This is why scripted TV shows are being replaced with *reality TV* too.

As one example, nearly all of the scripted TV shows on CW11 have been replaced with reality shows, usually involving police car chases or reality dating shows.

 

[NorthShoreWx]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is why scripted TV shows are being replaced with *reality TV* too.

As one example, nearly all of the scripted TV shows on CW11 have been replaced with reality shows, usually involving police car chases or reality dating shows.

 

The reality shows are scripted.  Perhaps not in as much detail, but they are.

[coastalplainsnowman]

11 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

This is cruel, universe

“the ocean really screws us on Long Island”

 

 

The Gulf apparently preferred the name Gulf of Mexico.  "Gulf of America?  I'll show you Gulf of America."*

*Current events related humor not intended to express a political preference.

[North and West]

The Gulf apparently preferred the name Gulf of Mexico.  "Gulf of America?  I'll show you Gulf of America."*
*Current events related humor not intended to express a political preference.

.

[NorthShoreWx]

Here's an interesting thought: some models were predicting an historic snowstorm, perhaps the greatest of all time for parts of southeastern Louisiana, and the storm over-performed.

 

[psv88]

46 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Here's an interesting thought: some models were predicting an historic snowstorm, perhaps the greatest of all time for parts of southeastern Louisiana, and the storm over-performed.

 

True and this was well modeled for days.