Winter Banter 24-25

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Basketball is structured where you can't play defense.  If a shooter's follow through hits your outstretched arms, its a foul on the defense?

also the *euro step*....(WALKING)

basketball became much softer when we allowed the Europeans in.

[Albedoman]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although it's possible, but not yet certain, that New York City is in the very early stages of a transition to lower snowfall from a warming climate, it should be noted that even in a warmer climate, both big snowstorms and snowy winters will remain possible for decades to come. Washington, DC's 7.2" snowfall on January 6 provides an example. Winters 2009-10,  2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16 provide examples of snowy winters there.

The impacts of climate change will concern generally warmer winters, more "stuck patterns," and SST-forced changes from the increasing frequency of marine heatwaves. Nevertheless, internal variability will remain significant, even within the context of a warmer climate than the present one.

the youngsters in this forum have no concept of dominating and sustainable undesirable  climatic patterns like in the late 60's to mid 70's. Winter did not exist for the NE.  Yearly droughts were abundant. Because a few idiots that have no science background but have big mouths in the media forum shout at the top of their lungs that it is global warming, they are gullible and all simply  wrong.  Just wait until the SJS and NJS start colliding again in the deep south with a consistent deeper troughing pattern running up the coast for 10-15 days.  Lets see the naysayers get buried in 2-3 feet of snow for weeks on end with below normal temps. . I remember all of the Miller A storm events that have virtually disappeared in the last 10-15 years that were in abundance in the 90's. They will come back. This last winter storm event for the Tn Valley this week was the first time in many years that we had an LP form in SE Texas only to become a southern slider.  The trough over us was just too deep with confluence winds. Wait until it relaxes somewhat after MLK. If the LP's keep on forming in SE Texas, all this crap talk about climate warming will go away. Just imagine if this  pattern was to stick around for the entire month of Feb?

[North and West]

omg I knew him from before steroids, he was very good but not great.
nowhere close to a .400 hitter
Ken Griffey Junior was MUCH better (in all phases of the game.)

Griffey was terrific but Bonds was better. Griffey was just far more likeable.


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[doncat]

After an uptick in precip for Nov and Dec, back to a dry pattern. Only 0.10" so far this month and nothing in the near future....Have had 8.67" here since Sept, normal for that timeframe is around 17.50".

[forkyfork]

kuchera maps go here 

[Nibor]

Anyone else having issues with TT in chrome?

[golfer07840]

No idea if this is where to post this question, but many eons ago, they used to be a sun angle chart that showed what date the day's sun angle was equivalent to.

 

Hopefully that makes sense. I'd make my own, but I can't recall if Dec 22nd is equivalent to December 20th? And then it works back daily until you hit June 21st? 

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

No idea if this is where to post this question, but many eons ago, they used to be a sun angle chart that showed what date the day's sun angle was equivalent to.

 

Hopefully that makes sense. I'd make my own, but I can't recall if Dec 22nd is equivalent to December 20th? And then it works back daily until you hit June 21st? 

Yep, you got it. On my chart 12/20 and 12/22 are equivalent. Someone smarter than I may make a correction on that but I figure its close enough. 

[golfer07840]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Yep, you got it. On my chart 12/20 and 12/22 are equivalent. Someone smarter than I may make a correction on that but I figure its close enough. 

Thanks! 

[North and West]

Severance returns tomorrow. Anyone watching? One of our favorites.


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[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

Severance returns tomorrow. Anyone watching? One of our favorites.


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Been meaning to watch that one, we just finished up For All Mankind which was some of the best television sci/fi since The Expanse. I know about all the Severance hype (also Silo!), really meaning to watch it soon. 

Apple TV is killing it with genre shows. 

[North and West]

Been meaning to watch that one, we just finished up For All Mankind which was some of the best television sci/fi since The Expanse. I know about all the Severance hype (also Silo!), really meaning to watch it soon. 
Apple TV is killing it with genre shows. 

I’ve watched those other two, both good; severance is even better. Foundation is good, too.

They’ve had really thoughtful sci-fi and suspense/dystopian stuff recently.


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[golfer07840]

On 1/12/2025 at 1:02 AM, coastalplainsnowman said:

That's what makes it even more of a shame.  The guy had been averaging over 35 HRs / 100 RBIs a year and was already at between 400-450 HRs when he likely started.

If memory serves from that BALCO book, he was jealous of all the attention McGuire and Sosa were getting in 1998, yet looking up his 1998 he was 'only' 37/122/.303.  Having said that, given that he was getting into his mid 30s, and the fact that he averaged 52 HRs a year from 2000-2004, I don't think it's a stretch to say that it increased his production by 50%.  I know that's less than Liberty's number, but the point is that right around the time that his neck disappeared, something sure seemed to have a significant effect.

Eh, I don't care. Next to Rickey Henderson he was the best and most fun player I had ever seen. 

Might be a nostalgia thing, but baseball was better in those days. But that's just me.

Carry on about the snow.... 

[NorthShoreWx]

Been a bit nippy on top of the Greenland ice cap:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=GEUSNAE&hours=72

Thousands of feet below, its between 0 and +10 on the beaches.

[North and West]

Been a bit nippy on top of the Greenland ice cap:
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=GEUSNAE&hours=72
Thousands of feet below, its between 0 and +10 on the beaches.

Juuuuuuuust a bit below zero


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[NorthShoreWx]

39 minutes ago, North and West said:

Juuuuuuuust a bit below zero


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A fitting tribute.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Been a bit nippy on top of the Greenland ice cap:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=GEUSNAE&hours=72

Thousands of feet below, its between 0 and +10 on the beaches.

wow is this at Summit Camp, Ed?

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, North and West said:

I’ve watched those other two, both good; severance is even better. Foundation is good, too.

They’ve had really thoughtful sci-fi and suspense/dystopian stuff recently.


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I don't have Apple TV and I loathe streaming anything, but is Foundation faithful to the classic book series?

[North and West]

I don't have Apple TV and I loathe streaming anything, but is Foundation faithful to the classic book series?

That I don’t know.

Not all of the streaming is bad; Apple is good if you can snag a free three month subscription.


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[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, North and West said:

That I don’t know.

Not all of the streaming is bad; Apple is good if you can snag a free three month subscription.


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Foundation series beat Lord of the Rings for all time best series, it's well worth the read.  It's also a good read if you're into politics.

[mob1]

For this weekend's event; Tony is going with the precipitation shield of the RGEM, low and boundary placement of the EURO, and for temps he's going with what models have for Tuesday morning - then he can always adjust snowfall totals upwards if needed. 

[North and West]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/brutal-cold-and-punishing-winds-predicted-for-inauguration-day-in-dc/ar-AA1xnyec

https://www.npr.org/2025/01/17/nx-s1-5265674/president-elect-donald-trump-moves-inauguration-indoors-citing-frigid-temperatures

Just read that the Inauguration was moved inside. 9° wind chill forecasted.


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[donsutherland1]

Another Social Media post to be added to the verification pile (BAMWX's call for historic cold will be verified tomorrow):

The above post was made yesterday after the 1/18 0z HRRR came out and seemingly supported the 1/17 18z RGEM, which is posted below:

Before one prematurely claims verification, possibly based on confirmation bias, one should examine the pattern to see if the particular guidance makes sense. The pattern has some similarities with that of the January 22, 1987 snowstorm, that brought 8.1" to New York City and 8.8" to Philadelphia. This time around, the ridging off the East Coast will be less impressive than it was in 1987 and the storm won't be as moisture-laden. Thus, snowfall amounts will be lower than they were in 1987. At the same time, a mostly rain scenario in New York City is unlikely.

My thinking last evening, which incorporated my assessment of the pattern that I posted on this morning and considered all of the guidance:

Snow will likely accompany the arrival of the Arctic air to the region. A developing storm will likely bring a general 3"-6" snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with a stripe of 4"-8" amounts to the north and west of this region. 1"-3" amounts are likely east of Islip.

The RGEM is a very good mesoscale model, but it appeared to be an outlier from a general consensus that existed among the guidance. Since then, it has corrected quite aggressively in its 1/18 6z and 12z runs moving into decent agreement with the model consensus.

 

[Stormlover74]

Yeah I couldn't understand why he went all in with the CMC/RGEM like he was personally invested in it being correct

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Another Social Media post to be added to the verification pile (BAMWX's call for historic cold will be verified tomorrow):

The above post was made yesterday after the 1/18 0z HRRR came out and seemingly supported the 1/17 18z RGEM, which is posted below:

Before one prematurely claims verification, possibly based on confirmation bias, one should examine the pattern to see if the particular guidance makes sense. The pattern has some similarities with that of the January 22, 1987 snowstorm, that brought 8.1" to New York City and 8.8" to Philadelphia. This time around, the ridging off the East Coast will be less impressive than it was in 1987 and the storm won't be as moisture-laden. Thus, snowfall amounts will be lower than they were in 1987. At the same time, a mostly rain scenario in New York City is unlikely.

My thinking last evening, which incorporated my assessment of the pattern that I posted on this morning and considered all of the guidance:

Snow will likely accompany the arrival of the Arctic air to the region. A developing storm will likely bring a general 3"-6" snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City with a stripe of 4"-8" amounts to the north and west of this region. 1"-3" amounts are likely east of Islip.

The RGEM is a very good mesoscale model, but it appeared to be an outlier from a general consensus that existed among the guidance. Since then, it has corrected quite aggressively in its 1/18 6z and 12z runs moving into decent agreement with the model consensus.

 

And the RGEM 24 hours later (1/18 18z):

Key Points:

1. Don't prematurely verify model outcomes

2. Don't assume model outcomes are locked in stone

3. Consider whether the model solution makes sense given the larger pattern and the other guidance

Verification will be provided following the storm

[North and West]

And the RGEM 24 hours later (1/18 18z):

Key Points:
1. Don't prematurely verify model outcomes
2. Don't assume model outcomes are locked in stone
3. Consider whether the model solution makes sense given the larger pattern and the other guidance
Verification will be provided following the storm

What’s going on? Sorry, waiting for my younger son’s game to start and was wondering what insanity occurred.


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[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

What’s going on? Sorry, waiting for my younger son’s game to start and was wondering what insanity occurred.


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Just another example of bad meteorological information on Social Media. The individual wrote off the I-95 area and expected only mixing. Anyone can make a bad forecast, but one saw bad practice (confirmation bias, selection of a model without consideration of the pattern, and a premature declaration of victory when there was a lot of uncertainty). These examples provide learning experiences for those who wish to forecast, as eliminating bad practices can enhance one's accuracy.

[Volcanic Winter]

It’s interesting they don’t even have WWA in SE MA up to Boston. That seems risky with some models still mostly hanging on to all snow solutions, no? Especially with the RGEM shifting, that seems like a huge risk to the immediate Boston metro let alone Monmouth / Ocean here. 

Can’t recall such stubborn divergence this late in the game, maybe 1/29/22 which was also very difficult to forecast with models split down the middles on the low position and banding pretty much right up to nowcasting. 
 

edit: Looks like they did finally add a WSWatch to the immediate Boston metro, which makes sense to me. Seems official forecasting for this event is playing highly conservative. Not suggesting it’s the wrong approach, just interesting to me. 

[NorthShoreWx]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Another Social Media post to be added to the verification pile (BAMWX's call for historic cold will be verified tomorrow):

 

 

Tee-hee 

[Volcanic Winter]

Well, that was fun. I think we all at least got a nice covering, with some of the north and west crew really cashing in? Ended up with 1.75-2 inches here on top of a thin layer of slush that is sure to turn into an actual glacier  

Sure beats bare ass ground going into this week. 

That storm had to be an enormously difficult forecast to make, for example my location which many models showed as generally all snow except Canadian guidance - there just wasn’t the precipitation to cool the column earlier on, it was actually extremely dry here until like 5pm. We had a little rain earlier in the day, but definitely paltry in terms of QPF. Then a period of very light sleet / graupel before we finally got into a main heavy band and the column instantly cooled to below freezing and put snow on the ground. Tough forecast. I think the city had similar issues, or was it just more plain temp problems there early on? 

The precipitation shield also really just seemed spotty and a bit shredded, certainly with some very heavy bands embedded though. Doesn’t seem like any model actually got the storm fully correct.